Stock版 - TLS美股研究对于WDC, STX, CMG, FOGO的看法 |
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T**********6
发帖数: 8 | 1 希捷科技（STX）提前公布三季度季报部分数据，大幅不及预期。企业硬盘及亚洲台式
机需求疲软。
a. 营收$2.6B，市场预期$2.7B
b. 毛利率23%，市场预期约与上季度持平，25.6%
c. STX盘后大跌6%，至$31.89
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160413006595/en/Seagate
巴郎周刊4月9日发文看多西部数据和希捷科技，尤其认为希捷数据的7.5%股息极其诱人
。我司研报认为其高股息不可持续，减少分红将不可避免。
http://www.barrons.com/articles/seagates-7-5-yield-is-enticing-
西部数据（WDC）4月5日提交8-K，揭示兼并结束后的并表资产负债等情况。融资成本约
为9.7%（我司估算），超出之前市场预期，因此兼并后每股盈利较原估值约下降$0.31
每股，以现市盈率计算合股价$2.2。
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/WDC/1804459751x0xS119312
本周专题
Hypothetical Long Case - FOGO
Fogo De Chao Inc (FOGO) is a restaurant chain in the expansion phase at
modest valuation (25% discount to peers, 17x TTM P/E vs. 20-23x TTM P/E of
peers) with a great concept, "high-quality Brazilian meat buffet at $60 per
person before tax and tips". The stock has traded down since IPO and could
have a substantial upside as market looks past the currency effect of
Brazilian real and focuses on its rapid and profitable growth potential of
its footprint in the U.S.
Hypothetical Short Case - CMG
Chipotle (CMG) is still trading at a premium to peers, in spite of its
recent mishap and double-digit decline in comp sales, with the hope that the
E. coli outbreak is largely contained and its expansion into casual dining
under the brand of Better Berger would be successful. We strongly doubt
these assumptions that currently support the stock price.
www.timelylongshort.com
www.timelylongshort.cn | T**********6
发帖数: 8 | 2 STX 今天大跌18%。
以下是我司3月30日发布的空方报告。更多请看timelylongshort.com or .cn
投资假设：看空
希捷科技 Seagate Plc 代码：STX
希捷科技全面致力于在硬盘驱动器（HDD）市场发展，但是随着这个市场逐渐被固态硬
盘（SSD）所取代，希捷科技面临着长期的发展困境。此外，西部数码通过收购美国晟
碟公司（SNDK）布局SSD，限制了希捷科技通过大规模收购快速布局SSD的前景。
Hypothetical Short Case published on 3/30/2016
STX is fully concentrated in the hard disk drive (HDD) segment. As this
segment is losing market share to Solid State Drive (SSD), STX will face
secular headwinds. In addition, while WDC has entered SSD market by
acquiring SNDK, STX is left with no viable option to quickly establish
scaleable presence in SSD.
Please read. Important disclosure.
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its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the
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