y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 1 英帝 10% 还是比较合理的。
美帝还早。
恐慌来临的时候，不要找什么相对强的。离的远远的比较好。
而且这还是第一波，
2000,1800这两个位置可以考虑，其他位置都是不可考虑的。
后续影响比较多，我转一个soros的。
A decision by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union would likely
trigger a big sell-off in the pound, a sharp decline in household income and
a recession, according to billionaire investor George Soros.
Just ahead of the vote by Britons on Thursday on whether to exit the EU or
remain, Soros issued an urgent warning about potential consequences.
"Too many believe that a vote to leave the EU will have no effect on their
personal financial position," Soros wrote in an op-ed Tuesday in The
Guardian newspaper. "This is wishful thinking."
Citing estimates from multiple authorities including the Bank of England and
the International Monetary Fund, Soros said the average income loss per
household due to a falling British currency would be £3,000 to £5,
000 annually ($4,400 to $7,335).
Soros understands fluctuations in the British currency — he made a good
chunk of his fortune betting against the pound in 1992. Now, he is
predicting that a Brexit would cause a 15 to 20 percent decline in the
currency.
While the 1992 tumble ended up aiding the country in the long run, as it
brought down interest rates and helped ignite a recovery, Soros said a
devaluation would not be healthy this time.
He cited three reasons: The Bank of England could not cut rates from already
low levels; the U.K. has a large current account deficit and likely would
not see another inflow of cash; and the loss of currency value wouldn't help
exports, because of uncertainty in trading conditions that the Brexit would
trigger.
"I want people to know what the consequences of leaving the EU would be
before they cast their votes, rather than after," Soros wrote. "A vote to
leave could see the week end with a Black Friday, and serious consequences
for ordinary people."
Wilbur Ross, chairman at W.L. Ross & Co., said there are "tremendous amounts
" of short positions against the pound that would moderate any currency
decline in the event of Brexit.
"I think George may be exaggerating a little bit when he says 15 to 20
percent. That would be an astonishing move for any currency," he told CNBC's
"Squawk Box" on Tuesday.
Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, said Soros
' call represents the extreme end, but a double-digit decline in the pound
is indeed plausible.
In Turnill's view, the pound could also see a double-digit upside move in
the event of a "remain" vote as large short positions unwind.
"Just think, you've seen this week [the pound] move from 1.41 to 1.47 purely
on about a 10-point swing in the prediction markets. If that goes to 100
percent probability, you could easily see a larger move," he told "Squawk
Box" on Tuesday. | c**t
发帖数: 9197 | | y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 3 不晚吧，不是说了嘛。
英镑-15%，
现在才-8%吧。
【在 c**t 的大作中提到】
: 早说呀
| y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 4 靠 -5%le .
vix up 55%。
vxx 17的cover call明天要被call走了。fuck！
and
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 英帝 10% 还是比较合理的。
: 美帝还早。
: 恐慌来临的时候，不要找什么相对强的。离的远远的比较好。
: 而且这还是第一波，
: 2000,1800这两个位置可以考虑，其他位置都是不可考虑的。
: 后续影响比较多，我转一个soros的。
: A decision by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union would likely
: trigger a big sell-off in the pound, a sharp decline in household income and
: a recession, according to billionaire investor George Soros.
: Just ahead of the vote by Britons on Thursday on whether to exit the EU or
| h********o
发帖数: 3320 | 5 better than losing money.
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 靠 -5%le .
: vix up 55%。
: vxx 17的cover call明天要被call走了。fuck！
:
: and
| y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 6 听人劝，吃饱饭。
soros，carl这些大鳄，该听的时候要听。
and
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 英帝 10% 还是比较合理的。
: 美帝还早。
: 恐慌来临的时候，不要找什么相对强的。离的远远的比较好。
: 而且这还是第一波，
: 2000,1800这两个位置可以考虑，其他位置都是不可考虑的。
: 后续影响比较多，我转一个soros的。
: A decision by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union would likely
: trigger a big sell-off in the pound, a sharp decline in household income and
: a recession, according to billionaire investor George Soros.
: Just ahead of the vote by Britons on Thursday on whether to exit the EU or
| w*j
发帖数: 6104 | | y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 8 pound从1.5跌倒1.3，这妥妥到达了soros的15%的目标吧？
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 不晚吧，不是说了嘛。
: 英镑-15%，
: 现在才-8%吧。
| d**t
发帖数: 1681 | 9 就是说到底了？
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: pound从1.5跌倒1.3，这妥妥到达了soros的15%的目标吧？
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