w*****n
发帖数: 214 | 1 最近大市在高位小幅震荡，总觉得不是好兆头，想在Fidelity 401k里面买些bearish/
inverse的投资作hedge。
版上高人能否推荐些比较靠谱的交易品种？ | w********2
发帖数: 16371 | | s*****n
发帖数: 2858 | 3 不要老想着赚钱。
【在 w*****n 的大作中提到】
: 最近大市在高位小幅震荡，总觉得不是好兆头，想在Fidelity 401k里面买些bearish/
: inverse的投资作hedge。
: 版上高人能否推荐些比较靠谱的交易品种？
| t******e
发帖数: 673 | 4 By Bond ETF, in normal cases, when stock fall, money flows to bond.
This Jan when stock tanks, bonds rally hard.
Be aware of interest rate risk.
In extreme cases, they both fell. Like in financial melt down, people need
cash.
Right now, both stock and bond are at high levels.
My suggestion is to hold SPY firm. Not many strategies can win over SP500.
Do not try to out smart the market.
【在 w*****n 的大作中提到】
: 最近大市在高位小幅震荡，总觉得不是好兆头，想在Fidelity 401k里面买些bearish/
: inverse的投资作hedge。
: 版上高人能否推荐些比较靠谱的交易品种？
| w*****n
发帖数: 214 | 5 谢谢指点，先奉上两个包子以表谢意。
bond是非常不熟，它的价格和interest是反的吗？那么预计加息bond会跌下来，对吗？
也不想多折腾多赚多少，就担心8-10年的2008那样的股市危机，想作些hedge避免大跌
的损失。
【在 t******e 的大作中提到】
: By Bond ETF, in normal cases, when stock fall, money flows to bond.
: This Jan when stock tanks, bonds rally hard.
: Be aware of interest rate risk.
: In extreme cases, they both fell. Like in financial melt down, people need
: cash.
: Right now, both stock and bond are at high levels.
: My suggestion is to hold SPY firm. Not many strategies can win over SP500.
: Do not try to out smart the market.
| t******e
发帖数: 673 | 6 In general, yes. Bond falls when interest rate goes higher.
The longer duration, the higher interest rate sensitivity.
However if you look at 10 year treasury note, it did not change very much
last Aug - Dec, yield range between 2 - 2.3.
If you bought 10 year treasury after Nov 2015, the gain this year is huge.
PIMCO GLOBAL BOND year to date return almost 10%, with 1.7 Sharpe ratio.
But it also lost 20%+ during the 2008 crisis, as people raise cash.
In short, bond lowers your return and risk.
If you hedge for the fall, you are likely to miss the run.
【在 w*****n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢指点，先奉上两个包子以表谢意。
: bond是非常不熟，它的价格和interest是反的吗？那么预计加息bond会跌下来，对吗？
: 也不想多折腾多赚多少，就担心8-10年的2008那样的股市危机，想作些hedge避免大跌
: 的损失。
| s*****n
发帖数: 2858 | 7 关键问题是，钱可以就放在那里的，不是必须买啥的。
【在 w*****n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢指点，先奉上两个包子以表谢意。
: bond是非常不熟，它的价格和interest是反的吗？那么预计加息bond会跌下来，对吗？
: 也不想多折腾多赚多少，就担心8-10年的2008那样的股市危机，想作些hedge避免大跌
: 的损失。
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