C******2
发帖数: 96 | 1 Legendary investor Jim Rogers sat down with Business Insider CEO Henry
Blodget on this week's episode of "The Bottom Line." Rogers predicts a
market crash in the next few years, one that he says will rival anything he
has seen in his lifetime. Following is a transcript of the video.
Blodget: One of the things I've always admired about you as an investor is
that you don't talk about what should be. You figure out what is going to be
and then you do that. So what is going to be with respect to the stock
market? What's going to happen?
Rogers: I learned very early in my investing careers: I better not invest in
what I want. I better invest in what's happening in the world. Otherwise I'
ll be broke — dead broke.Well, what's going to happen is it's going to
continue. Some stocks in America are turning into a bubble. The bubble's
gonna come. Then it's going to collapse, and you should be very worried.But,
Henry, this is good for you. Because someone has to report it. So you have
job security. You're a lucky soul.
Blodget: Well, yeah, TV ratings do seem to go up during crashes, but then
they completely disappear when everyone is obliterated, so no one is hoping
for that.So when is this going to happen?
Rogers: Later this year or next.
Blodget: Later this year or next?
Rogers: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Write it down.
Blodget: And what will trigger it?
Rogers: Well, it's interesting because these things always start where we're
not looking. In 2007, Iceland went broke. People said, 'Iceland? Is that a
country? They have a market?' And then Ireland went broke. And then Bear
Stearns went broke. And Lehman Brothers went broke. They spiral like that.
Always happens where we're not looking.
I don't know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many
of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we're not watching
. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war,
but it's going to be something.When you're watching Business Insider and you
see, "That's so interesting. I didn't know that company could go broke." It
goes broke. Send me an email, and then I'll start watching.
Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It's going to be the worst in your lifetime.
Blodget: I've had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.
Rogers: It's going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I'm older than you.
No, it's going to be serious stuff.
We've had financial problems in America — let's use America — every four
to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it's been over
eight since the last one.
This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it's coming.
And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of
debt.Henry, the debt now, that debt is nothing compared to what's happening
now.
In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started
raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt,
and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in
America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008.
It's going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.
Blodget: I am worried.
Rogers: Good. Good.
Blodget: Can anybody rescue us?
Rogers: They will try. What's going to happen is, they're going to raise
interest rates some more. Then when things start going really bad, people
are going to call and say, "You must save me. It's Western civilization. It'
s going to collapse." And the Fed, who is made up of bureaucrats and
politicians, will say, "Well, we better do something." And they'll try, but
it won't work. It'll cause some rallies, but it won't work this time.
Blodget: And we are in a situation where Western civilization already seems
to be possibly collapsing, even with the market going up all the time. Often
when you do have a financial calamity, you get huge turmoil in the
political system. What happens politically if that happens?
Rogers: Well, that's why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because
of what's coming.
You're going to see governments fail. You're going to see countries fail,
this time around. Iceland failed last time. Other countries fail. You're
going to see more of that.
You're going to see parties disappear. You're going to see institutions that
have been around for a long time — Lehman Brothers had been around over
150 years — gone. Not even a memory for most people. You're going to see a
lot more of that next around, whether it's museums or hospitals or
universities or financial firms. | C******2
发帖数: 96 | 2 In December 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 16
million USD and moved to Singapore. Rogers claimed that he moved because now
is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers
's daughters speak fluent Mandarin to prepare them for the future. He is
quoted as saying: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you
were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007
you move to Asia | s******s
发帖数: 1793 | 3 这是去年的采访，难道Rogers指的是今年一月的小崩盘？ 今年年底只有4个月了，会不
会Rogers被打脸？ | w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 4 美国经济以4%的速度增长，哪里CRASH了?就算川普能造,
也阻挡不了经济的上升,就算有CRASH也不是今年和明年.
这老东西自己想退休了,唱衰世界经济? | z******j
发帖数: 1265 | 5 这家伙3年前就这么讲了！听听算了，花街不会让crash再发生的 | s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 6 罗杰斯还是很有眼光的，不过timing这种东西还是很难的
now
Rogers
2007
【在 C******2 的大作中提到】
: In December 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 16
: million USD and moved to Singapore. Rogers claimed that he moved because now
: is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers
: 's daughters speak fluent Mandarin to prepare them for the future. He is
: quoted as saying: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you
: were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007
: you move to Asia
| m******c
发帖数: 1202 | | a******c
发帖数: 210 | 8 你妈，2008已经是世纪大跌了，再来一次？好啊，我弹药都准备好了。可惜，谁信啊。
。。 | k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 9 Rogers是有史以来最大的loser了吧。他基本踏空了08到现在的暴涨，并且鼓吹A股，就
是个鳖共的喉舌，鳖共天天拿他忽悠韭菜。
【在 s******1 的大作中提到】
: 罗杰斯还是很有眼光的，不过timing这种东西还是很难的
:
: now
: Rogers
: 2007
| k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 10 何止三年？都十来年了。
2008低点：这傻逼说会更低。
2014: 中国股市是最好投资。
2015: 黄金和中国股票。
他就是个猪脑子，还恬不知耻。当Rogers这样的傻逼要和人争着比傻，没有人会赢的。
【在 z******j 的大作中提到】
: 这家伙3年前就这么讲了！听听算了，花街不会让crash再发生的
| r*y
发帖数: 1 | 11 老实说，讲弹药都准备好了的还是穷逼，否则首要问题是到底怎么安排自己的asset。
自打2008年以来我一直趋于保守，就是被吓到了。
：你妈，2008已经是世纪大跌了，再来一次？好啊，我弹药都准备好了。可惜，谁信啊
。。。 | a******c
发帖数: 210 | 12
：老实说，讲弹药都准备好了的还是穷逼，否则首要问题是到底怎么安排自己的asset。
：自打2008年以来我一直趋于保守，就是被吓到了。
asset 个屁，2011入手湾区房，现在差不多供完了。手上还有一堆现金。反正我现在是
不敢入市的。怕了。 | d********g
发帖数: 11948 | 13 这都说了多久了？crash肯定会的 但一天到晚扯时间点有p用 他说的点现在有几个都开
始了但市场还在波动啊 土鸡算不算一个？ |
|
