K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 1 Joker 10/11
Federer 4/1
Murray 9/2
Nadal 11/2
Del Potro 18/1
Berdych 40/1
Ferrer 66/1
Nishikori 150/1
Joker夺冠几率继续高于所有其他人的总和。 |
s****t
发帖数: 17096 | 2 僵尸比豆子高？碉堡了
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Joker 10/11
: Federer 4/1
: Murray 9/2
: Nadal 11/2
: Del Potro 18/1
: Berdych 40/1
: Ferrer 66/1
: Nishikori 150/1
: Joker夺冠几率继续高于所有其他人的总和。
|
s**e
发帖数: 1834 | 3 Your statement "Joker夺冠几率继续高于所有其他人的总和"
is NOT supported by the numbers you provided.
Though Joker's 10/11 'seems' to suggest that his
夺冠几率 is 1/(10/11 + 1) = 52.38%, it is not true
as the house/casino needs to make profit,
and then everybody's
payoff is artificially lowered.
Using the same formula to sum up others' total
夺冠几率, we get
1/(4/1+1) + 1/(9/2+1) + ... = 63.42%,
with is bigger than Joker's 52.38%.
So the house/casino thinks non-Joker has higher
夺冠几率 than Joker.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Joker 10/11
: Federer 4/1
: Murray 9/2
: Nadal 11/2
: Del Potro 18/1
: Berdych 40/1
: Ferrer 66/1
: Nishikori 150/1
: Joker夺冠几率继续高于所有其他人的总和。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 有道理！
【在 s**e 的大作中提到】
: Your statement "Joker夺冠几率继续高于所有其他人的总和"
: is NOT supported by the numbers you provided.
: Though Joker's 10/11 'seems' to suggest that his
: 夺冠几率 is 1/(10/11 + 1) = 52.38%, it is not true
: as the house/casino needs to make profit,
: and then everybody's
: payoff is artificially lowered.
: Using the same formula to sum up others' total
: 夺冠几率, we get
: 1/(4/1+1) + 1/(9/2+1) + ... = 63.42%,
|
x*d
发帖数: 1696 | 5 your statement isn't true either. It's common for one to put multiple bet
onto more than one players. If one bets same on both Djok and Fed, it
dilutes more on Fed's than on Djok's.
【在 s**e 的大作中提到】
: Your statement "Joker夺冠几率继续高于所有其他人的总和"
: is NOT supported by the numbers you provided.
: Though Joker's 10/11 'seems' to suggest that his
: 夺冠几率 is 1/(10/11 + 1) = 52.38%, it is not true
: as the house/casino needs to make profit,
: and then everybody's
: payoff is artificially lowered.
: Using the same formula to sum up others' total
: 夺冠几率, we get
: 1/(4/1+1) + 1/(9/2+1) + ... = 63.42%,
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 6 Not exactly. Betting odds do not change because of the purchases.
It's not MITBBS 博彩。The odds are only adjusted by the company
itself if needed.
【在 x*d 的大作中提到】
: your statement isn't true either. It's common for one to put multiple bet
: onto more than one players. If one bets same on both Djok and Fed, it
: dilutes more on Fed's than on Djok's.
|
