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Tennis版 - why 2nd serve as an amateur
相关主题
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kim不在状态啊。。。发几个game,大家看看我有4.5吗?
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: serve话题: amateur话题: fault话题: rate话题: double
1 (共1页)
t***r
发帖数: 157
1
If you can have 50% 1st serve in rate, that double fault rate is 0.5*0.5=0.
25; 60%, doulbe fault is 0.4*0.4=0.16; 70% then double fault is 0.09;
Powerful serve in is much better than a weak 2nd serve, At amateur, the
tradeoff is clear because most people dont return well. And also, you only
have one serve to practice, which is better than two kinds of serve
Prove me wrong
d****t
发帖数: 1284
2
first serve in does't mean you win that point.
t***r
发帖数: 157
3

True, but it gives you better chance of scoring

【在 d****t 的大作中提到】
: first serve in does't mean you win that point.
b*********s
发帖数: 6757
4
sure if the players are robots that doesn't have any emotion and fear. But
when you double fault few times, you might become more fearful, so your 0.5
assumption might not stand as the game progress. When you don't have double
faults, you get into a groove and 60% might go up. And you might even loosen
up more and hit bigger "2nd" serves.
Most ppl don't return well, but after few fails, they might just block and
push the ball back. As the game progress, you'll get tired and lose 5~10mph
on the serve, opponent gets a better feel and rhythm off your serve and
returns better.
So at end of the day, I would take a consistent serve over powerful serve.

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
: If you can have 50% 1st serve in rate, that double fault rate is 0.5*0.5=0.
: 25; 60%, doulbe fault is 0.4*0.4=0.16; 70% then double fault is 0.09;
: Powerful serve in is much better than a weak 2nd serve, At amateur, the
: tradeoff is clear because most people dont return well. And also, you only
: have one serve to practice, which is better than two kinds of serve
: Prove me wrong

x*d
发帖数: 1696
5
If one's serve is 50% in practice and he uses the same serve twice at game,
most likely one will hit both serves <50%.
First serve, one will consider angle. Powerful serve into the comfort zone
of receiver, even at 90 mph or higher, can be returned well.
Second serve, one will think of placing it safely, but with first serve's
motion, it will only make it worse. Very rarely a player doesn't have this
mental issue even if you have played years and have theoretically persuaded
yourself :)

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
: If you can have 50% 1st serve in rate, that double fault rate is 0.5*0.5=0.
: 25; 60%, doulbe fault is 0.4*0.4=0.16; 70% then double fault is 0.09;
: Powerful serve in is much better than a weak 2nd serve, At amateur, the
: tradeoff is clear because most people dont return well. And also, you only
: have one serve to practice, which is better than two kinds of serve
: Prove me wrong

a*****0
发帖数: 6788
6

俺觉得正相反. 业余玩玩发球不失误太重要了. 觉得是第一重要的技战术.

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
: If you can have 50% 1st serve in rate, that double fault rate is 0.5*0.5=0.
: 25; 60%, doulbe fault is 0.4*0.4=0.16; 70% then double fault is 0.09;
: Powerful serve in is much better than a weak 2nd serve, At amateur, the
: tradeoff is clear because most people dont return well. And also, you only
: have one serve to practice, which is better than two kinds of serve
: Prove me wrong

K****D
发帖数: 30533
7
偶的观点始终是怎么发球完全看对手而不是自己。
1)如果对方吃偶的1发偶当然会提高1发成功率,尽量不2发。典型例子是跑不动胖子
或者无力瘦子。
2)如果对方不吃偶的1发但是吃偶的2发,偶就会尽量2发当1发mix up. 典型例子是
一直想攻偶2发的冲动不稳定暴力男。
3)如果俩都不吃,比如稳定男,该怎么发就怎么发了,因为不见得"Powerful serve
in is much better than a weak 2nd serve",暴力1发基本上就是白消耗体力,导致
后来顶不住。

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
: If you can have 50% 1st serve in rate, that double fault rate is 0.5*0.5=0.
: 25; 60%, doulbe fault is 0.4*0.4=0.16; 70% then double fault is 0.09;
: Powerful serve in is much better than a weak 2nd serve, At amateur, the
: tradeoff is clear because most people dont return well. And also, you only
: have one serve to practice, which is better than two kinds of serve
: Prove me wrong

d****t
发帖数: 1284
8
if your first serve win is 60%, and have 60% first serve in, then you have
0.6 * (1-0.16) = 0.504 chance to win your serve game, barely pass 50%.
you will have to increase either first serve in percentage or first serve
win percentage. either way, you will put too much pressure on your serve.

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
:
: True, but it gives you better chance of scoring

f*****n
发帖数: 18176
9
原则上同意,如果心理好只专注眼前这一球的可以这样练。

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
: If you can have 50% 1st serve in rate, that double fault rate is 0.5*0.5=0.
: 25; 60%, doulbe fault is 0.4*0.4=0.16; 70% then double fault is 0.09;
: Powerful serve in is much better than a weak 2nd serve, At amateur, the
: tradeoff is clear because most people dont return well. And also, you only
: have one serve to practice, which is better than two kinds of serve
: Prove me wrong

a***8
发帖数: 2433
10
50/50 是概率,不等于你发个坏的下一个就是好的。韦爵爷小宝同学都知道连开十八把
大是稀松平常的事情。比赛时如此赌法就比较蠢了,因为敌人也是活人,人家发现你把
宝押在发球上时就会想办法先把球好歹顶回来再说,你的一发作用就被化解了,那是你
还敢白送发球分吗?
相关主题
42% 1st serve, 5 ace, 7 double faults发球成瓶颈了
以后菲菲是不是人见人欺呀Singles/Doubles question (3)
kim不在状态啊。。。Match summary
x*d
发帖数: 1696
11
这个说的好。网球的一发是可以赌,但是只靠赌是不能赢得。

【在 a***8 的大作中提到】
: 50/50 是概率,不等于你发个坏的下一个就是好的。韦爵爷小宝同学都知道连开十八把
: 大是稀松平常的事情。比赛时如此赌法就比较蠢了,因为敌人也是活人,人家发现你把
: 宝押在发球上时就会想办法先把球好歹顶回来再说,你的一发作用就被化解了,那是你
: 还敢白送发球分吗?

t***r
发帖数: 157
12
Great discussion.
Some people missed my points, these percentage of serve in rates is your
average, and I was not talking about the game/practice situation or the
variation from game to game; if your serve in rate is 90% in practice, and
in game sitation 40%, then your serve in rate is 40%.
Another mathematical calculation is this.
50% serve in rate means 25% double fault rate, if you increase your serve in
rate to 60%, then the double fault rate reduces to 16%, so a 10%/50%= 20%
increase in serve in rate results in (25%-16%)/25%=36% reduction in double
fault rate, the marginal benefits is amazing!
z*********n
发帖数: 94654
13
大家比赛里flat一发的成功率根本没那么高,不信严格统计计算一下
有50%应该就是业余选手里相当牛的了
大部分人有威力的flat 一发成功率估计也就20%
当然降低威力成功率就上去了,但估计也不符合楼主所谓的一发定义了

and
in

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
: Great discussion.
: Some people missed my points, these percentage of serve in rates is your
: average, and I was not talking about the game/practice situation or the
: variation from game to game; if your serve in rate is 90% in practice, and
: in game sitation 40%, then your serve in rate is 40%.
: Another mathematical calculation is this.
: 50% serve in rate means 25% double fault rate, if you increase your serve in
: rate to 60%, then the double fault rate reduces to 16%, so a 10%/50%= 20%
: increase in serve in rate results in (25%-16%)/25%=36% reduction in double
: fault rate, the marginal benefits is amazing!

x*d
发帖数: 1696
14
agree, few people (if there is) here can constantly serve 50%, ~90 MPH, and
with angle. Missing any of these, the serve doesn't satisfy LZ's double
first-serve assumption.

【在 z*********n 的大作中提到】
: 大家比赛里flat一发的成功率根本没那么高,不信严格统计计算一下
: 有50%应该就是业余选手里相当牛的了
: 大部分人有威力的flat 一发成功率估计也就20%
: 当然降低威力成功率就上去了,但估计也不符合楼主所谓的一发定义了
:
: and
: in

r*********x
发帖数: 3016
15
你这个命题有个非真的隐藏假设 -- 网球比赛是算总得分的
其实网球计分很微妙。这种总概率的算法不适用
K****D
发帖数: 30533
16
LZ避而不谈偶提到的问题。
偶的1发成功率以及双误率完全和对手有关,和偶自己基本毫无关系。

【在 z*********n 的大作中提到】
: 大家比赛里flat一发的成功率根本没那么高,不信严格统计计算一下
: 有50%应该就是业余选手里相当牛的了
: 大部分人有威力的flat 一发成功率估计也就20%
: 当然降低威力成功率就上去了,但估计也不符合楼主所谓的一发定义了
:
: and
: in

z*********n
发帖数: 94654
17
和你有一定关系,说明你有较扎实的基本功
不过很大程度上同意你的
我发球也一样,跟自己差不多的水平打的时候发球经常有得分,自以为发球不错
遇到比自己强太多的直接被kill,连续几次就完蛋了。肯定得使劲发,双误大幅度增加
,否则必定被kill

【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: LZ避而不谈偶提到的问题。
: 偶的1发成功率以及双误率完全和对手有关,和偶自己基本毫无关系。

x*d
发帖数: 1696
18
楼主的假设应该是同水平的,而且不可能和你自己基本毫无关系吧?你如果有50%,70-
80mph,而且总能发到对手不舒服的位置,对同水平的应该总能70%得分。

【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: LZ避而不谈偶提到的问题。
: 偶的1发成功率以及双误率完全和对手有关,和偶自己基本毫无关系。

K****D
发帖数: 30533
19
偶的体会就是同水平的对手也一样是千奇百怪的。有的人偶就怎么也打不过,无论
怎么发球他都不吃,保发特别困难。另一些人则获胜关键在接发球局,发球局
基本随便怎么发都可以保住。

【在 x*d 的大作中提到】
: 楼主的假设应该是同水平的,而且不可能和你自己基本毫无关系吧?你如果有50%,70-
: 80mph,而且总能发到对手不舒服的位置,对同水平的应该总能70%得分。

x*d
发帖数: 1696
20
这个。。。应该不是你发球的问题吧? 应该是发球占据主动后得分的概率跟你的对手关
系很大。你发的够快够偏人家还能好好接回来就不是和你一个水平的了。

【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 偶的体会就是同水平的对手也一样是千奇百怪的。有的人偶就怎么也打不过,无论
: 怎么发球他都不吃,保发特别困难。另一些人则获胜关键在接发球局,发球局
: 基本随便怎么发都可以保住。

相关主题
Rafael Nadal 1-3 Novak Djokovic 技术统计 (zz)double fault 发球双误
简直不敢相信这是费德的比赛发几个game,大家看看我有4.5吗?
癫疯战第一盘数据统计大家打网球的时候遇到过类似情形没?
K****D
发帖数: 30533
21
不管这个是由于什么导致的,现实结果就是遇到接发球好的对手偶就完全不能使用
LZ提的两个1发的方法。
偶相信LZ发表文章的时候也是假设了1发可以得不少cheap points的。如果对方能够
忽忽悠悠的return deep,对于偶这种网前为0的弱人这个1发就已经没什么大用了。

【在 x*d 的大作中提到】
: 这个。。。应该不是你发球的问题吧? 应该是发球占据主动后得分的概率跟你的对手关
: 系很大。你发的够快够偏人家还能好好接回来就不是和你一个水平的了。

t***r
发帖数: 157
22

The whole point of the thread is that As amateur, we should find and use
only one Serve, the power, speed or shot placement varies for different
person, but that should be your best serve.

【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 不管这个是由于什么导致的,现实结果就是遇到接发球好的对手偶就完全不能使用
: LZ提的两个1发的方法。
: 偶相信LZ发表文章的时候也是假设了1发可以得不少cheap points的。如果对方能够
: 忽忽悠悠的return deep,对于偶这种网前为0的弱人这个1发就已经没什么大用了。

z*********n
发帖数: 94654
23
阶段性的,某段时间忽然感觉自己能偶尔发出来猛的了,就会很兴奋,忘乎所以低比赛
里也想猛发球,导致双误暴增
然后看淡了,就开始俩二发,不双误比啥都强。然后遇到能直接拍死自己二发的猛人就
又完蛋了。
总之无定论啊

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
:
: The whole point of the thread is that As amateur, we should find and use
: only one Serve, the power, speed or shot placement varies for different
: person, but that should be your best serve.

b*********s
发帖数: 6757
24
so in a sense your title could also be:
why 1st serve as an amateur
since the 2nd serve might be an amateur's best serve

【在 t***r 的大作中提到】
:
: The whole point of the thread is that As amateur, we should find and use
: only one Serve, the power, speed or shot placement varies for different
: person, but that should be your best serve.

x*d
发帖数: 1696
25
这个是我的常态 :)

【在 b*********s 的大作中提到】
: so in a sense your title could also be:
: why 1st serve as an amateur
: since the 2nd serve might be an amateur's best serve

z*********n
发帖数: 94654
26
co常态

【在 x*d 的大作中提到】
: 这个是我的常态 :)
1 (共1页)
相关主题
发几个game,大家看看我有4.5吗?set point on serve
大家打网球的时候遇到过类似情形没?42% 1st serve, 5 ace, 7 double faults
继续奔发球以后菲菲是不是人见人欺呀
谁扫盲一下, 什么是foot fault?kim不在状态啊。。。
You are as good as your second serve!!发球成瓶颈了
请教: 发球时踩到底线算不算犯规?如果是,如何判罚?Singles/Doubles question (3)
拍线最松的是谁?Match summary
什么样的情况适用Aussie Formation?Rafael Nadal 1-3 Novak Djokovic 技术统计 (zz)
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: serve话题: amateur话题: fault话题: rate话题: double