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发帖数: 273 | 1 a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine detailing the first
nine months of the 2014 epidemic in West Africa raises concern about the
short, often-mentioned 21 post-exposure-day periods in the guidelines. In
the journal's study of 4,507 probable and confirmed cases, "approximately 95
percent of the case patients had symptom onset within 21 days of exposure."
Charles Haas, professor at Drexel University, published a paper in PLOS
Current Outbreaks that can help us delineate the probability of infection,
based on the six Ebola epidemics. According to his model, 21 days after
exposure the risk of acquiring Ebola is 0.1 percent to 12 percent. The risk
reduces to 0.01 percent to 5 percent after 30 days and the risk is virtually
zero after 40 days. |
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