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发帖数: 10330 | 1 US cannot sacrifice Taiwan to court the Chinese
By David Pilling
Published: March 30 2011 22:45 | Last updated: March 30 2011 22:45
Should Washington throw the Chinese dog a Taiwanese bone? That is the
essence of a quiet but persistent undercurrent of US thought: that
little Taiwan – with just 23m people – is too big an irritant in Sino-US
relations. Instead of continually annoying China by pledging to defend
it, the argument goes, the US should quietly drop its long-standing
commitment.
US-Sino friction is most visible whenever Washington ships arms to
Taiwan. When last year the US sold $6.4bn of helicopters and Patriot
missiles to Taipei, Beijing’s ferocious reaction caught many by
surprise. It accused Washington of “treating it like an enemy”. It also
cancelled military-to-military contacts, leading Robert Gates, US
secretary of defence, to accuse Beijing of holding US-Sino relations
hostage to Taiwanese “political weather”.
The view that this argy-bargy is just not worth it is elaborated in the
latest edition of Foreign Affairs. In Will China’s Rise Lead to War?
(answer: not necessarily), Charles Glaser, professor of political
science at George Washington University, argues that the US “should
consider backing away from its commitment to Taiwan”. That would remove
the “most obvious and contentious flash point” between the two, he
writes. Rather than spurring Beijing on to press for more concessions,
say on disputed territory with Japan, he argues, a policy of
“abandoning” Taiwan – my word, not his – would more likely encourage
China’s peaceful rise.
This is an interesting academic debate. But it is more than that. There
is some evidence it might be influencing US policy. Back in 2006, George
W.?Bush’s administration circumscribed its commitment to Taiwan by
snubbing Chen Shui-bian, the then president whose pro-independence talk
was causing almost as much consternation in Washington as it was in
Beijing. Robert Zoellick, then deputy secretary of state, said the US
could not countenance Taiwan’s flirtation with independence because
“independence means war”.
Far from supplying Taiwan with the latest weaponry, the US may be
starving Taipei of the military equipment it needs. This month, the US-
Taiwan Business Council said arms sold to Taiwan were out of date and
inadequate. It pointed out that the 2010 sale that caused all the fuss
was the tardy fulfilment of a 2001 deal.?The report said the US was
giving the impression its willingness to defend Taiwan was fading.
Even Mr Gates has been less than definitive about the sale of arms to
Taiwan. “Clearly over time, if the environment changed and if the
relationship between China and Taiwan continued to improve and the
security environment for Taiwan changed, then perhaps that would create
the conditions for re-examining all of this,”?he has argued.
There are three main reasons for this wavering commitment. First, the
military balance across the Taiwan Strait has tipped decisively in
China’s favour. In a Financial Times interview this month, even Ma Ying-
jeou, Taiwan’s president, conceded Taiwan no longer had the wherewithal
to engage China in an arms race.
Second, there is simply more at stake in US-Sino relations. As
Washington seeks Chinese co-operation on everything from nuclear
proliferation to the Middle East, sticking its neck out over Taiwan
looks proportionally less and less sensible. Finally, relations between
Taiwan and China have improved to such an extent under Mr Ma that
defending Taiwan seems ever-less pressing. Taipei has signed an
important free-trade agreement with China and greatly increased tourist
and commercial links.
The attraction of realpolitik must be strong. But one should not
underestimate just how precious Taiwan is, nor how remarkable its
transformation from authoritarian state to robust democracy has been.
Taiwan’s pluralistic society is a living refutation of the argument that
Chinese culture is somehow inimical to democracy. Certainly, the
Taiwanese hold these achievements dear. In spite of the gravitational
pull of shared history and China’s economic success, the vast majority
of Taiwanese remain implacably against unification. They speak for
something very important: Taiwan is not a bone to be thrown in China’s
way. It is a jewel.
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发帖数: 10330 | 2 湾湾要小心了，形势不对了。
最近各路大神都在为美帝放弃台湾造势。
喜过了，该开始惊了。 |
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