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发帖数: 6300 | 1 Confirmation Bias
The Misconception: Your opinions are the result of years of rational,
objective analysis.
The Truth: Your opinions are the result of years of paying attention to
information which confirmed what you believed while ignoring information
which challenged your preconceived notions.
Have you ever had a conversation in which some old movie was mentioned,
something like “The Golden Child” or maybe even something more obscure?
You laughed about it, quoted lines from it, wondered what happened to the
actors you never saw again, and then you forgot about it. Until…
You are flipping channels one night and all of the sudden you see “The
Golden Child” is playing. Weird. The next day you are reading a news story,
and out of nowhere it mentions forgotten movies from the 1980s, and holy
shit, three paragraphs about “The Golden Child.” You see a trailer that
night at the theater for a new Eddie Murphy movie, and then you see a
billboard on the street promoting Charlie Murphy doing stand-up in town, and
then one of your friends sends you a link to a post at TMZ showing recent
photos of the actress from “The Golden Child.”
What is happening here? Is the universe trying to tell you something? No.
This is called the frequency illusion.
Since the party and the conversation where you and your friends took turns
saying “I-ah-I-ah-I want the kniiiife” you’ve flipped channels plenty of
times; you’ve walked past lots of billboards; you’ve seen dozens of
stories about celebrities; you’ve been exposed to a handful of movie
trailers. The thing is, you disregarded all the other information, all the
stuff unrelated to “The Golden Child.” Out of all the chaos, all the
morsels of data, you only noticed the bits which called back to something
sitting on top of your brain. A few weeks back, when Eddie Murphy and his
Tibetan adventure were still submerged beneath a heap of pop-culture at the
bottom of your skull, you wouldn’t have paid any special attention to
references to it.
If you are thinking about buying a new car, you suddenly see people driving
them all over the roads. If you just ended a long-time relationship, every
song you hear seems to be written about love. If you are having a baby, you
start to see them everywhere. When the frequency illusion goes from a
passive phenomenon to an active pursuit, that’s when you start to
experience confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias is a filter through which you see a reality that matches
your expectations. It causes you to think selectively, but the real trouble
begins when confirmation bias distorts your active pursuit of facts.
Punditry is a whole industry built on confirmation bias. Rush Limbaugh and
Keith Olbermann, Glenn Beck and Arianna Huffington, Rachel Maddow and Ann
Coulter – these people provide fuel for beliefs, they pre-filter the world
to match existing world-views. If their filter is like your filter, you love
them. If it isn’t, you hate them.
Whether or not pundits are telling the truth, or vetting their opinions, or
thoroughly researching their topics is all beside the point. You watch them
not for information, but for confirmation.
“Be careful. People like to be told what they already know. Remember that.
They get uncomfortable when you tell them new things. New things…well, new
things aren’t what they expect. They like to know that, say, a dog will
bite a man. That is what dogs do. They don’t want to know that man bites a
dog, because the world is not supposed to happen like that. In short, what
people think they want is news, but what they really crave is olds…Not news
but olds, telling people that what they think they already know is true.”
Terry Pratchett through the character Lord Vetinari from his novel, “The
Truth: a novel of Discworld
Check any Amazon.com wish list, and you will find people rarely seek books
which challenge their notions of how things are or should be. During the
2008 U.S. presidential election, Valdis Krebs at orgnet.com analyzed
purchasing trends on Amazon. People who already supported Obama were the
same people buying books which painted him in a positive light. People who
already disliked Obama were the ones buying books painting him in a negative
light. Just like with pundits, people weren’t buying books for the
information, they were buying them for the confirmation.
Krebs has researched purchasing trends on Amazon and the clustering habits
of people on social networks for years, and his research shows what
psychological research into confirmation bias predicts: you want to be right
about how you see the world, so you seek out information which confirms
your beliefs and avoid contradictory evidence and opinions.
Half-a-century of research has placed confirmation bias among the most
dependable of mental stumbling blocks. Journalists looking to tell a certain
story must avoid the tendency to ignore evidence to the contrary;
scientists looking to prove a hypothesis must avoid designing experiments
with little wiggle room for alternate outcomes. Without confirmation bias,
conspiracy theories would fall apart. Did we really put a man on the moon?
If you are looking for proof we didn’t, you can find it.
“If one were to attempt to identify a single problematic aspect of human
reasoning that deserves attention above all others, the confirmation bias
would have to be among the candidates for consideration. Many have written
about this bias, and it appears to be sufficiently strong and pervasive that
one is led to wonder whether the bias, by itself, might account for a
significant fraction of the disputes, altercations, and misunderstandings
that occur among individuals, groups, and nations.”
- Raymond S. Nickerson
In a 1979 University of Minnesota study by Mark Snyder and Nancy Cantor,
people read about a week in the life of an imaginary woman named Jane.
Throughout the week, Jane did things which showcased she could be
extroverted in some situations and introverted in others. A few days passed.
The subjects were asked to return. Researchers divided the people into
groups and asked them to help decide if Jane would be suited for a
particular job. One group was asked if she would be a good librarian; the
other group was asked if she would be a good real-estate agent. In the
librarian group, people remembered her as an introvert. In the real-estate
group, they remembered her being an extrovert. After this, when they were
asked if she would be good at the other profession people stuck with their
original assessment, saying she wasn’t suited for the other job. The study
suggests even in your memories you fall prey to confirmation bias, recalling
those things which support your beliefs, forgetting those things which
debunk them.
An Ohio State study in 2009 showed people spend 36 percent more time reading
an essay if that essay aligns with their opinions. Another study at Ohio
State in 2009 showed subjects clips of the parody show “The Colbert Report,
” and people who considered themselves politically conservative
consistently reported “Colbert only pretends to be joking and genuinely
meant what he said.”
“Thanks to Google, we can instantly seek out support for the most bizarre
idea imaginable. If our initial search fails to turn up the results we want,
we don’t give it a second thought, rather we just try out a different
query and search again.”
- Justin Owings
A popular method for teaching confirmation bias, first introduced by P.C.
Wason in 1960, is to show the following numbers to a classroom: 2, 4, 6
The teacher then asks the classroom to guess why those numbers are in that
particular order and to guess the teacher’s secret rule for selecting them
in that way. The students answer by offering up three numbers of their own
using the rule they think is in play. The teacher will then say “yes” or
“no” if the order matches the rule. When the student thinks they have it
figured out, they have to write it down and turn it in. Students typically
offer sets like 10, 12, 14 or 22, 24, 26. The teacher says “yes” over and
over again, and the majority of people believe that the instructor’s
confirmation means they have figured out the rule, but they haven’t. To
figure out the rule, students would have to offer sets like 2, 2, 2 or 9, 8,
7 – these, the teacher would say, do not fit the rule. With enough guesses
playing against what the students think the rule may be, students finally
figure out what the original rule was: any three numbers in ascending order.
The exercise is intended to show how you tend to come up with a hypothesis
and then work to prove it right instead of working to prove it wrong. Once
satisfied, you stop searching.
You seek out safe havens for your ideology, friends and coworkers of like
mind and attitude, media outlets guaranteed to play nice. Whenever your
opinions or beliefs are so intertwined with your self-image you couldn’t
pull them away without damaging your core concepts of self, you avoid
situations which may cause harm to those beliefs.
“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as
being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things
else to support and agree with it.”
- Francis Bacon
Over time, by never seeking the antithetical, through accumulating
subscriptions to magazines, stacks of books and hours of television, you can
become so confident in your world-view no one could dissuade you.
Remember, there’s always someone out there willing to sell eyeballs to
advertisers by offering a guaranteed audience of people looking for
validation. Ask yourself if you are in that audience.
In science, you move closer to the truth by seeking evidence to the contrary
. Perhaps the same method should inform your opinions as well.
http://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/06/23/confirmation-bias/ |
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