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发帖数: 29846 | 1 http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/democrats-are-losing-women/
Ever since the abortion debate burst on the American political scene in the
wake of the Roe v Wade decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, women have voted
more Democratic than men. Particularly unmarried women have since typically
backed Democratic candidates – attracted by their pro-choice positions –
by
between ten and twenty points in each election.
But now the trend has stopped! In one of the most important findings in the
post-election polls, the McLaughlin and Associates polling firm has found
that men and women both voted for Republican candidates in the 2010 midterm
elections! Pollster John McLaughlin – one of the best – noted that “The
Republican candidates for Congress had a 12-point advantage among men (53-41
)
and a 7-point advantage among women (50-43).” This finding is historic.
The Republicans won married women by 57-38, suburban women by 55-38, and
Independent women by 51-40. Democrats maintained reduced margins among
single
women, poor women, and minority group women.
While national surveys have indicated a ten point shift to pro-life as
opposed to pro-choice positions over the past twenty years, so dramatic a
reversal from 2008 (when Obama carried women by huge margins) cannot be
attributed to an attitudinal change on the abortion issue. Rather, it
indicates that the issue has diminished in saliency, particularly as
economic
conditions have worsened and concerns about the impact of Obama’s
legislation
on health care quality have grown.
In an earlier column, we indicated that the ascendancy of the Tea Party
movement, with its focus on economic, fiscal, tax and health policy issues,
has increasingly eclipsed the Christian right as the biggest grass roots
organization on the right. As the Republican Party becomes more secular,
apparently women are feeling freer to vote for it.
Of lesser note, but still interesting, are the Republican gains among both
African-Americans and Latinos.
For decades – ever since 1964 when things turned – Republican candidates
have
counted themselves fortunate if they scored in double digits among black
voters. But, in the 2010 election, polling by the Zogby organization found
Republicans winning more than 20% of the black vote, holding Democrats to a
mere 3:1 win as opposed to the more usual 8:1 or 9:1 victories of recent
years.
Among Latinos, Republicans also made some gains. After losing Hispanics by
only 10 points in the 2004 contest of Bush vs. Kerry, and suffering a 45
point loss in 2008, the Republican candidates for Congress in 2010 lost the
Latino vote by 20 points.
The better GOP showing, of course, has a lot to do with the composition of
the black and Hispanic vote. In an off-year election, the better educated
and
higher income members of both voter blocks are more inclined to participate
and down-scale voters are more likely to stay home.
But the reversal among both groups may reflect the increasing frustration of
both groups with Obama’s failure to deliver on his economic promises. That
blacks voted more Republican in 2010 with an African-American in office than
they did in 2006 is remarkable.
Among Latinos, the Zogby findings validate the results of a Pew Research
survey conducted in October, 2010 that found that Latinos were more
concerned
about jobs, education, and health care than about immigration. Asked to rate
the importance of each issue, 58% of Hispanic voters said education very
important and 57% felt that way about jobs and the economy. 51% gave that
rating to health care, but only 31% said immigration was “very important.”
29% said the environment was.
The only issue blocking Latinos from embracing the Republican Party is its
anti-immigration position and the lingering doubts it engenders about the
Party’s attitude toward Hispanics in general. But the election of
Republican
Cuban-American Marco Rubio as Senator from Florida may assuage these doubts.
In any case, on the issues that matter most to Latinos – education, jobs
and
health care, many apparently felt strongly enough to switch to the GOP. |
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