USANews版 - New High: 52% Predict Economy Will Be Weaker A Year From Now |
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Americans are more pessimistic than ever that the U.S. economy will improve
during the next year.
Just 27% of American Adults now believe the U.S. economy will be stronger in
one year, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone
survey. That’s down from 31% in June and is the lowest finding in regular
tracking since January 2009. Prior to the latest survey, the number of
adults expecting a stronger economy in a year’s time ranged from 31% to 45%.
Fifty-two percent (52%) believe the economy will be weaker a year from now.
That’s up nine points from 43% in June and represents the first time a
majority of adults are predicting a weaker economy in a year. Just 13%
believe the economy will be about the same one year from now. (To see survey
question wording, click here.)
The two-night survey was conducted last Thursday and Friday evenings. On
Friday, the federal government announced that there was zero job growth in
August.
Still, more than half (53%) of Americans think the economy will be stronger
in five years' time, up from 46% in June and the highest level of confidence
measured since January 2010. One-in-five adults (20%) expects the economy
to be weaker in five years, the lowest finding in a year. Ten percent (10%)
think the economy will be about the same in five years, while another 16%
aren’t sure.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).
Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on September 1-2, 2011 by Rasmussen
Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95%
level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is
conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
There’s little difference of opinion between investors and non-investors
when it comes to economic growth over the next year, but investors are more
confident about the economy in five years.
Fifty-four percent (54%) of all adults now believe it’s at least somewhat
likely that the U.S. economy will enter a depression similar to the 1930s
during the next few years, the highest finding since March 2009. Still, that
number includes just 19% who see this outcome as Very Likely. Thirty-eight
percent (38%) see a major depression as unlikely, but only seven percent (7
%) say it’s Not At All Likely to happen.
Consumer confidence has fallen four points since Friday’s disappointing
jobs report and is at its lowest level measured in three weeks. The Consumer
Index shows little change from a month ago but is down 15 points from three
months ago. It typically takes a full week before the impact of a jobs
report is fully measured in the Consumer Index. Investor confidence has
rebounded slightly from a sharp decline following the jobs report.
Forty-five percent (45%) of Americans believe it will take three years or
more for the stock market to fully recover from the major downturn,
including 30% who think it will take more than three years. Just 16% believe
the stock market will recover within the next year, but that’s just a
point below the highest level of optimism reached in regular polling.
Americans are less optimistic about the housing market, with 51% expecting
housing prices to take more than three years to recover. This finding has
ranged from 38% to 52% since early 2009. Only four percent (4%) say housing
prices will fully recover in one year, while 15% predict it will take two
years. The same number (15%) says the housing market will fully recover in
three years. Another 14% are undecided.
Perceptions of home values among homeowners have improved little over the
past month, though more than half believe their home is worth more than when
they bought it.
Worker confidence in the labor market is the lowest it’s been in a year.
The Rasmussen Employment Index shows that 17% of workers report that their
firm is hiring, while 24% report layoffs.
The economy continues to be the number one issue on voters’ minds as they
look ahead to next year's elections. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
