B**W
发帖数: 2273 | 1 ANKENY, Iowa — It was four years ago that Ross Witt, a soft-spoken
electrical engineer at John Deere, overcame his natural discomfort with
knocking on hundreds of his neighbors’ doors during dinnertime as a
precinct coordinator for Ron Paul’s campaign.
But when Mr. Paul dropped out of the national race in June 2008, Mr. Witt
did not stop, because, in a sense, neither did Mr. Paul: Mr. Witt and many
other supporters here joined the Iowa branch of an independent political
group Mr. Paul established after the race. They carried on his libertarian
message, and picked local organizers. And when Mr. Paul announced that he
was running for president this year, Mr. Witt and others jumped back onto
his campaign, a force more motivated and efficient than before.
Alone among the Republican field, Mr. Paul, a Texas congressman, has a built
-in network from 2008 that gives him a decisive organizational edge. Iowa
Republicans say that advantage is an important reason some polls show him
within striking distance of a victory in the Jan. 3 caucuses, with a battle-
tested ground game poised to take advantage of a lack of passion for the
rest of the candidates, a stark contrast to 2008, when evangelicals rallied
around Mike Huckabee.
“This isn’t a year-and-a-half campaign,” Craig Robinson, a former Iowa
Republican Party political director during the caucuses four years ago, said
of Mr. Paul’s organization. “This is a five-year campaign.”
Mr. Paul’s support comes from loyal and relatively diverse backers, like
college students attracted to his antiwar stance and his desire to end the
federal ban on marijuana and other drugs, conservative populists suspicious
of Wall Street who cheer his criticism of the Federal Reserve, and Tea
Partiers who embrace his small government credo.
His consistent positions over the years also set him apart from other
candidates bedeviled by charges of flip-flopping. But they could also
undermine him, as his debate performance Thursday highlighted a rigid
antiwar stance out of sync with many Republicans.
Mr. Paul’s campaign has grown more adaptable. Hundreds of college students
are being recruited to travel on their own nickel to Iowa and New Hampshire,
where the campaign will pay their food, housing and gas while they knock on
doors and make phone calls. Paul backers hope the effort blunts the
unfortunate timing of the Iowa caucuses during Christmas break, which could
undermine turnout among his fervent student base.
At a recent University of Iowa rally that enthusiasm was on display. Mr.
Paul praised the students, saying young people “seem to understand what
liberty is all about so much better than some of those individuals that have
been in Washington way too long, and they don’t have the vaguest idea what
liberty is all about!”
The campaign developed an Internet-based phone-banking system that allows
people around the country to make calls to Iowans from home using scripts
tailored to identify supporters. It seems to be working: a New York Times/
CBS News poll this month found that 60 percent of likely Republican
caucusgoers said they had been contacted by the Paul campaign, the highest
rate of any candidate, and about double that of Newt Gingrich. The true
believers have also been coached not to be rude or dismissive to those who
do not embrace the message, an issue during the last campaign.
“We don’t want volunteers arguing with them,” said Dimitri Kesari, deputy
national campaign manager.
And Mr. Paul’s biting commercials have been running relentlessly on Iowa
stations, winning raves and tearing into Mr. Gingrich, now his main rival
here.
Even before all that started, Mr. Paul had a tactical edge, Republican
activists say: a lot of his infrastructure stayed intact during the interim
through his newly founded group, Campaign for Liberty. One senior Iowa
Republican official described it “as a shadow campaign in waiting.”
The group became a bridge between campaigns, they said, keeping important
supporters primed, a boost in a state where on-the-ground organization means
everything.
“It became the continuous organizing force during the off years for the
Paul message, sponsoring events when Paul showed up, and continuing to reach
people who shared his views,” said Doug Gross, the 2002 Republican nominee
for governor and Mitt Romney’s 2008 state chairman.
While polls suggest Mr. Paul may do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the
question remains whether he will be anything more than a spoiler, a
candidate helping prolong what could be a drawn-out nominating battle.
In Iowa, however, his “ground game” could pack a punch and elevate his
candidacy nationally. Unlike primary states where voters disappear behind a
curtain to pull a lever, Iowa’s Republicans (and independents and Democrats
willing to join the Republican Party for a day) will gather in about 1,800
caucuses to vote, sometimes by a show of hands. It is a social event, where
neighbors lobby one another, making enthusiastic advocates like Mr. Witt a
candidate’s most valuable currency.
On caucus night, Mr. Witt will lobby his neighbors all the way up to the
voting, including a short speech. He will also run the caucus, as the
precinct Republican chairman. He said many other Paul activists — perhaps
even hundreds — are now also on hiatus from Mr. Paul’s independent group
to play a role in the campaign.
Paul supporters say the independent group has never done anything to
specifically benefit Mr. Paul that could run afoul of its status as a tax-
exempt 501(c)4 organization. Senior campaign officials play down the group’
s influence, suggesting not that many people have crossed over.
“I don’t think it is very high,” said Drew Ivers, Mr. Paul’s state
chairman, who suspended his involvement with the group when he went back to
the campaign, as he said others also did. He and Mr. Paul’s two state co-
chairmen — along with two other Paul supporters — now make up 5 of 17
members on the state Republican central committee, a formidable presence in
the party.
Other campaigns question whether Mr. Paul’s surge is all that it seems,
arguing that Democrats and independents who respond favorably in polls are
less likely to trudge to a Republican caucus on a cold night.
That said, they also believe Mr. Paul is set to do much better than his
fifth-place 2008 showing. One rival campaign official cited what is fast
becoming cliché: that bad caucus-day weather favors Mr. Paul’s highly
motivated supporters, and could further help his finish.
“He’s praying for a blizzard.” |
|
