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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Preference Cascade: Supermajority of Americans Believe Second Amendment
Protects Individual Right to Keep and Bear Arms
June 3, 2012 by Rodney Graves
(73-26). A slightly smaller super-majority approves of the NRA (68-32).
Progressive gun grabbers, urban liberals, and LSM hardest hit.
It’s been fifty years in the making, but super-majorities now believe the
Second Amendment actually means what it says:
A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state
, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.
Better late than never. David Kopel buries the lede, but otherwise covers
the issue well:
Public opinion about the National Rifle Association
By David Kopel | The Volokh Conspiracy
In April, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that the National Rifle Association
was viewed favorably by 68% of Americans, and unfavorably by 32%. Unlike
most polls, the Reuters poll apparently did not allow “unsure” or “
undecided” as a choice. In each of the demographics which the poll provided
–Republicans, Democrats, independents, whites, and blacks–the NRA was
viewed favorably by at least 55%.
A 2005 Gallup Poll had found a 60/34 favorable/unfavorable view of the
NRA. Previous Gallup results were 52/39 (May 2000), 51/39 (April 2000), 51/
40 (April 1999, right after the Columbine High School murders), 42/51 (June
1995), and 55/32 (March 1993).
It is interesting to compare the NRA’s ratings with support for handgun
control. Since 1959, Gallup has been asking “Do you think there should or
should not be a law that would ban the possession of handguns, except by
the police and other authorized persons?” There have been some small
changes in wording over the years, and the question is not a perfect test of
support for handgun prohibition; some respondents might interpret “other
authorized persons” simply as support for the licensing for handgun owners.
However, the Gallup question is the closest thing there is to a 50-year
gauge for sentiment for banning handguns.
In October 2011, Gallup found that 26% of Americans (a record low)
thought that there should be such a law, and 73% did not. The 26/73 anti-/
pro-handgun split is fairly close to the 32/68% anti-/pro-NRA split. After
Columbine, 38% wanted the anti-handgun law, and 40% disapproved of NRA.
Likewise, Gallup in May 1993 found 54% in against the proposed law, and
55% approval for NRA.
Thus, generally speaking, over the last two decades, Americans who favor
handgun prohibition appear to have accurately identified the NRA as a major
obstacle to their wishes, and have viewed the NRA unfavorably. Americans
who oppose handgun prohibition have viewed the NRA favorably for the same
reason.
As American public opinion has evolved from a majority to a super-
majority which supports the right to own a handgun, public opinion has
likewise moved towards a super-majority with a favorable view of the NRA.
There are many causes for the evolution, but it seems plausible that at
least part of the cause has been the increasing effectiveness of the NRA
itself. To the extent that the NRA has convinced some Americans that
handguns in the right hands are beneficial, then those Americans may have
become more likely to view the NRA favorably. To the extent that popular NRA
spokesmen (such as three-term NRA President Charlton Heston) or popular NRA
programs (such as Eddie Eagle Gun Safety) have made some Americans view the
NRA favorably, some of those Americans may have become less inclined to
support handgun prohibition.
Because the NRA has (despite some fierce criticisms by Republicans,
including in 2010) continued to support Democrats with good records on the
Second Amendment, and to oppose Republicans with bad records, the NRA has
avoided the problem of being identified with only a single political party.
When an interest group supports only one party, that group will inevitably
be viewed unfavorably by most members of the other political party.
And now that even long-time anti-gun advocates such as Hillary Clinton
and Charles Schumer have been affirming their support for the Second
Amendment individual right, the basic premise with which the NRA is
identified has become so widely supported that only politicians in very safe
districts dare to dispute it publicly.
Note that the NRA has been consistent in supporting candidates who support
the Second Amendment, and consistently opposed those who have not,
regardless of party, a lesson numerous advocacy groups of the left would be
well advised to take note of.
Gun Control is dead, long live the Second Amendment and the right of the
People to keep and bear arms. |
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