l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 "Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in
electoral trouble"
by Rick aka Mr. Brutally Honest
Let's all hope the University of Colorado streak continues:
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to
the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts
that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers
of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model
stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia,
including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in
real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is
in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC
Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes
in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly
focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney
will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when
considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly
predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement
since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters
will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the
former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and
win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of
states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two
years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also
correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most
popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
...
In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator
forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states
currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia,
New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and
Florida,” Bickers said.
We'll know soon enough. |
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