h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020484630457809082
摘要：
Rove的预测是 Romney popular vote +3，
college vote at least 279 |
h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 2 我自己先表个态。就算Romney能赢，我也不信他能赢那么多。
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020484630457809082
: 摘要：
: Rove的预测是 Romney popular vote +3，
: college vote at least 279
|
y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 3 Rove，就是他毁了共和党的，就是他把共和党彻底推向了机右。 |
l*****8
发帖数: 16949 | 4 不要太乐观了。他是共和党的人。就像我不相信民主党的左派一样，Rove说得也要打个
折扣。 |
B******m
发帖数: 2643 | 5 Rove肯定不会说共和党会输啊。
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020484630457809082
: 摘要：
: Rove的预测是 Romney popular vote +3，
: college vote at least 279
|
l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 6 一般共和党自家人的预测都是偏保守的，就像FOX的民调一样。 |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 7 From Rove's own map on 10/29, in 9 toss-up states, only Florida is up 2 for
Romney, all others are behind Obama 2 or more except two states even, I dont
know how he got 279 for Romney. Does he mean somehow to rig the election?
This could be an ugly ominous sign. |
I****g
发帖数: 104 | 8 不错了，Dick Morris还说罗姆尼landslid呢，至少300！
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: 我自己先表个态。就算Romney能赢，我也不信他能赢那么多。
|
m******O
发帖数: 596 | 9 他的地图数据来源是14天平均数。
他昨天写的预测文章，数据来源是过去一周poll的细化分析。说明近期的poll结果更加
favor Romney。
这就是区别所在。
for
dont
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: From Rove's own map on 10/29, in 9 toss-up states, only Florida is up 2 for
: Romney, all others are behind Obama 2 or more except two states even, I dont
: know how he got 279 for Romney. Does he mean somehow to rig the election?
: This could be an ugly ominous sign.
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 10 #9, if anything "过去一周poll的细化分析" from all polls, it clearly shows up
trend for Obama, not Romney. His peak reached around 10/22, a week ago of
Rove's map on 10/29.
It appears you know his magic number, would you enlighten us please? |
|
|
m******O
发帖数: 596 | 11 Well，我觉得没有什么further enlightenment的必要，因为我刚才并没有提出什么云
里雾里的理论，而只不过陈述了一个简单的事实：
你说：Karl Rove的文章和他的Election Map相互矛盾。
我说：文章的样本窗口是过去七天，而Election Map的样本窗口是过去十四天。所以你
是在用香蕉来比较苹果。
“... As of yesterday afternoon(10/30), there had been 31 national surveys
in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven,
and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP
challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none...”
up
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: #9, if anything "过去一周poll的细化分析" from all polls, it clearly shows up
: trend for Obama, not Romney. His peak reached around 10/22, a week ago of
: Rove's map on 10/29.
: It appears you know his magic number, would you enlighten us please?
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 12 So you think Rove's map isnt updated, right? Okay you may update it and give
us explanation why Romney can get 279? |
m******O
发帖数: 596 | 13 你这个转移话题的办法是没有用处的。我对EC没有太多深入的研究，也没那个时间。在
这个楼里，我唯一感兴趣而且要说明的，就是你把两篇文章的采样窗口混淆了。
That's all I wanted to say in this post. Period.
give
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: So you think Rove's map isnt updated, right? Okay you may update it and give
: us explanation why Romney can get 279?
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 14 So you or Rove couldn't explain the magic 279. Fine.
As matter of fact, from commonly used RCP, his lead in 7 days dropped to 0
on 10/30. |
t*b
发帖数: 850 | 15 Rove's prediction based on numbers.
left's predition based on"we think 2012 is more like 2008 than 2004". |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 16 Rove's number is in his map, or updated map,tdb, can you show us one? |
