l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 1 2008年80%犹太人支持O8，一叶知秋，静待选举结果。
President Barack Obama appears to have lost some of the Jewish support that
helped put him in the White House four years ago and could end up being
crucial in his bid for a second term.
At least that seems to be the case, according to several recent polls
showing support for the president among the nation's 6.5 million Jewish
voters has fallen off by as much as 10 to 19 percent, depending on which
survey one chooses.
In the battleground state of Florida, where nearly a half million Jews are
registered to vote, a loss of even a few percentage points in that important
demographic could cost Obama the state and give Mitt Romney another pathway
, if he loses Ohio, to the White House.
“A small shift in the Jewish vote can make a difference,” Ira Sheskin, a
University of Miami professor who is director of the Jewish Demography
Project there, told the Boston Globe back in August.
“There are some people who are concerned about whether Obama really has his
heart in Israel,” Sheskin added. “There are people who are afraid that
Obama will put undue pressure on Israel in his second term.”
Some polls still have Obama and Romney even in the Sunshine State, while
others have put Romney ahead.
But regardless of who's on top at any given moment, Jewish voters, like the
rest of the nation, still rank the economy as the top issue in the campaign,
according to most polls. But for many, reports about Obama's contentious
relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his seeming
"reluctance to rattle the saber against Iran," as the Globe recently put it,
may cause some Jewish voters to withhold their votes this year or even
switch sides.
The possibility of an erosion of support for the president was made
abundantly clear in a Gallup poll in September, which found that his
standing among Jewish voters was resting at 68 percent, a 10-point drop from
78 percent in 2008 during his race against Arizona Sen. John McCain.
More recent polls indicate his support may have eroded even more to 64
percent or lower.
“The 78 percent that Barack Obama got in the Jewish community four years
ago is off the table,” Sid Dinerstein, chairman of the Palm Beach County
Republican Party, told the Globe in September. "Barack Obama will get a
majority of the Jewish vote, but he won’t get two-thirds.”
Dinerstein, predicted Obama would take no more than 60 to 65 percent of the
Jewish vote in Florida, which is about what Republican operatives believe
will be the case nationwide, thanks in part to Romney's constant suggestions
out on the campaign trail that the president is not a real friend of Israel.
"When you take 10, 15 points of the Jewish vote and flip them, the state’s
gone, believe me," Dinerstein added.
That could be the case in the critical swing state of Ohio as well, where
ads have turned up in recent days targeting Jewish voters by charging that
Obama's re-election could be a danger to the Israeli state.
Writing in the New York Times, op-ed columnist Roger Cohen said an ad in the
Cleveland Jewish News this week asked the question: "Are you willing to bet
the life of the Jewish people on this president?"
According to Cohen, the ad, paid for by a group calling itself Jews for
Israel 2012, questioned "Barack Obama's willingness to defend an Israel '
threatened by nuclear annihilation,'" apparently from Iran's nuclear
development program.
Cohen's piece also noted that automated calls from former United Nations
Ambassador John Bolton, a Romney supporter and Fox News contributor, have
been pouring into Jewish homes in Cuyahoga County warning "that a vote for
Romney is needed to save Israel from an Iranian bomb and Islamist extremists
," as Cohen put it.
An Obama loss in Cuyahoga County, which includes heavily Democratic parts of
Cleveland, would he huge setback. He took the county handily in 2008, with
an estimated 80 percent support from the Jewish community.
But the Romney campaign is pouring heavy resources into the county in an
effort to drain away as much of that support as possible.
Robert Goldberg, former chairman of the Jewish Federations of North American
told Cohen that he believes Obama will only get about 60 percent support
from Jewish voters in the county this time around.
"Jews just don't trust Obama on Israel," the columnist quoted Goldberg as
saying. "The president has no sympathy for Israel. His sympathy is for the
Muslim world he knew as a child."
But Goldberg told Cohen that, more than anything else, Jewish voters are
turning against Obama because of the economy, although some may have been
swayed by polls out of Israel showing that Israelis favor Romney over Obama.
In addition to Ohio and Florida, efforts are underway in other possible
swing states, such as Nevada and Pennsylvania, to drain off Jewish votes
from Obama.
For example, the Republican Jewish Coalition, backed by Jewish billionaire
and Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, has been airing $5 million worth
of ads encouraging Jewish voters to reject Obama and change history.
The last time Republicans won more than an average of 18 percent of the
Jewish vote in a presidential race was in 1988 when George H.W. Bush
defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis. Bush pulled 35 percent of the Jewish vote
that year, but it collapsed to 11 percent against Bill Clinton in 1992.
Republicans are certain that won't happen this year.
"At 70 percent support, Obama would be suffering a significant drop (from
2008)," Tevi Troy, a foreign-policy adviser to the Romney campaign, told USA
Today in September.
"The range between what George H.W. Bush got in 1992 (11 percent) and the
high-water mark Reagan got in 1980 (39 percent) — we're right in the middle
of that. If we go higher than 25 percent, that is good news for the
Republicans," he added.
Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com: http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Obama-Jewish-vote-crucial/2012/11/02/id/462634#ixzz2B7VcMfV9
Follow us: @newsmax_media on Twitter | newsmax on Facebook | Q****r
发帖数: 7340 | 2 我有个朋友，小business owner，每次吃饭都把08骂死。后来才知道他是Jewish
that
important
pathway
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: 2008年80%犹太人支持O8，一叶知秋，静待选举结果。
: President Barack Obama appears to have lost some of the Jewish support that
: helped put him in the White House four years ago and could end up being
: crucial in his bid for a second term.
: At least that seems to be the case, according to several recent polls
: showing support for the president among the nation's 6.5 million Jewish
: voters has fallen off by as much as 10 to 19 percent, depending on which
: survey one chooses.
: In the battleground state of Florida, where nearly a half million Jews are
: registered to vote, a loss of even a few percentage points in that important
| l**1
发帖数: 1875 | | l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 4 请看这一段，
Jewish voters are not a large percentage of the electorate, but their
numbers are important in places like Florida and Ohio. Democrats will be
shocked at the Jewish vote totals on election day. If I know 100 Jews...the
vote breakdown was around 80% for Obama in 2008. Not this time. Obama has
thrown Israel under the bus and treated Netanyahu with disrespect. This time
around it's about 50% to 55% with my 100 Jewish friends. That's enough of a
change to tip a few key states like Florida and Ohio (and elect Josh Mandel
U.S. Senator in Ohio).
【在 Q****r 的大作中提到】
: 我有个朋友，小business owner，每次吃饭都把08骂死。后来才知道他是Jewish
:
: that
: important
: pathway
| l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 5 犹太人贪婪，反而害了罗姆尼。
the
time
a
Mandel
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: 请看这一段，
: Jewish voters are not a large percentage of the electorate, but their
: numbers are important in places like Florida and Ohio. Democrats will be
: shocked at the Jewish vote totals on election day. If I know 100 Jews...the
: vote breakdown was around 80% for Obama in 2008. Not this time. Obama has
: thrown Israel under the bus and treated Netanyahu with disrespect. This time
: around it's about 50% to 55% with my 100 Jewish friends. That's enough of a
: change to tip a few key states like Florida and Ohio (and elect Josh Mandel
: U.S. Senator in Ohio).
|
|
