P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 1 Villanova political science professor, Lara Brown, has been telling me for
over a year that the race would be a dead heat, 47% to 47% on November 1st–
with victory going to the party that gets out the greatest numbers of its
base, and persuades the tiny number of people who are unaffiliated with
either party to vote for them. All the rest, polls, debates, headline issues
, acts of nature, have very little actual impact on voting decisions, Brown
insists. Tell that to the cable tv news programs.
Deep in her core, Brown, is motivated by her sense that America politically
has been divided bitterly divided, 50-50, a fundamental dynamic that
explains the crucial role played by independent voters in the 10 beleagured
battleground states where last minute polls try to capture the identity of
the victor on Tuesday.”Independent voters don’t pay attention until the
last several days of the campaign, when they must weigh what issue is
critical to their choice. The rest is just all noise,” Brown tells me an a
telephone interview from Philadelphia where she has been teaching. “Its not
until the last week of October the 6% who decide all elections, make up
their mind, determining whether the incumbent get re-elected.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2012/11/03/villanovas | l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 2 有不少人预估，ROMNEY会拿到超过300张选举人票。 | c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 3 什么都是可能的。现在赌盘上，罗姆尼赢的概率是 34%。
【在 l**********1 的大作中提到】
: 有不少人预估，ROMNEY会拿到超过300张选举人票。
| l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 4 Intrade Obama 67% Romney 33%
LOL | d**p
发帖数: 510 | |
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