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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Unemployment situation best for college grads, whites, men, and older
workers
by Jenny Marlar
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without
seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly
from 7.0% for October. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3
%, nearly a one-point increase over October's rate.
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by
landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the
month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a
seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the
government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the
government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.
It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November,
although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result
of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is
to blame.
Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast
to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still
tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012.
However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six
months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted
unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.
Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in
November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in
November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no
change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.
Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are
unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for
full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to
underemployment.
The increase in underemployment is the result of an increase in the number
of people unemployed as well as the number of people working part time but
wanting full time work, which rose to 9.4% in November from 8.9% in October.
The number of workers wanting full-time positions generally increases
during the holiday season as more people take on part-time seasonal work.
Compared with this time last year, the percentage of workers desiring
additional work is down a modest three-tenths of a point.
Unemployment Lowest for College Grads, Whites, Men, and Older Workers
Unemployment rates continue to be lowest for college grads (4.0%), Americans
aged 50 to 65 (5.5%), whites (6.5%), and men (6.6%). At the other end of
the spectrum, unemployment remains higher than 10% for blacks (12.4%), 18-
to 29-year-olds (12.0%), people with a high school education or less (11.4%)
, and Hispanics (10.6%).
Regionally, Americans living in the South face the highest unemployment
rates, while Midwesterners have the lowest levels of unemployment. The Labor
Department recently reported that superstorm Sandy produced a large uptick
in the number of underemployment claims being filed in the East, especially
from New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Gallup's data found that
unemployment rose 1.2 points in the East between October and November.
However, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate rose by the same amount in the
Midwest and went up a similar 0.8 points in the South -- indicating that
Sandy isn't entirely to blame. Unemployment declined 0.2 points in the West.
Implications
Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate -- the closest comparison it
has to the official numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-- increased in November, suggesting that the BLS will report another
increase when it releases its numbers Friday. It is possible that some of
the November increase in unemployment is the result of scaled-back holiday
hiring, in which case the BLS may apply a smaller adjustment factor than it
has in the past.
Although the employment situation has improved over the past year for
Americans as a whole, it is apparent that more must be done to improve job
opportunities for many specific groups, especially young Americans and
blacks, who continue to experience the highest unemployment levels.
The increase in unemployment in November is a change from the positive
momentum seen in recent months. However, it is also possible that October's
dramatic improvement was temporary, and November's reading is a continuation
of the earlier trend. The trend in future months will be an important
indicator of the true momentum of the job climate.
Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly
averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available
to view and export in the following charts: |
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