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发帖数: 3803 | 1 Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in January,
reaching the lowest level in more than a year as higher payroll taxes took a
bigger bite out of Americans’ paychecks.
Enlarge image
Sales grew to $48 billion from Oct. 28 through Dec. 22. Photographer: David
Paul Morris/Bloomberg
3:15
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index
of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the housing market. The S&
P/Case-Shiller index increased 5.5 percent in November from a year ago, the
biggest year-over-year gain since August 2006. Case speaks with Tom Keene
and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
2:32
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, discusses U.S. January consumer confidence data
released today and economic outlook. The Conference Board’s index decreased
to 58.6, the weakest since November 2011, from a revised 66.7 in December,
figures from the New York-based private research group showed. (Source:
Bloomberg)
5:36
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group
Inc., talks about the drop in U.S. consumer confidence in January, the
outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and the global economy. He
speaks with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television's "
Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg)
The Conference Board’s index decreased to 58.6, the weakest since November
2011, from a revised 66.7 in December, figures from the New York-based
private research group showed today. The January reading was lower than the
most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey, which had a median estimate
of 64.
The drop in confidence coincides with a two percentage- point increase in
the payroll tax used to fund Social Security, a hurdle for consumers after a
projected pickup in spending in the fourth quarter. The outlook for
employment prospects and incomes also deteriorated this month, today’s data
showed.
“The thing that’s particularly troubling is the sizable decline in
expectations,” said Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney
Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who projected a reading of 61.6. “As
those expectations deteriorate, it doesn’t bode particularly well for day-
to-day consumer spending.”
The 8.1-point slump in the gauge of sentiment from a month earlier was the
biggest since August 2011. Estimates of the 73 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg ranged from 59 to 70. The measure averaged 53.7 in the recession
that ended in June 2009.
Stocks were little changed after the figures as investors watched earnings
reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,501.87 at 10
:21 a.m. in New York.
Home Prices
Another report today showed property values increased in November by the
most since August 2006. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S.
cities climbed 5.5 percent from November 2011, after advancing 4.2 percent
in the year to October.
The Conference Board’s gauge of present conditions fell to a three-month
low of 57.3 in January from 64.6. The measure of expectations for the next
six months slumped to 59.5, the lowest since October 2011, from 68.1.
The share of consumers expecting more jobs to become available in the next
six months dropped to 14.3 percent in January, the lowest since December
2011, from 17.9 percent the previous month.
Fewer consumers anticipate a pickup in their incomes as well. The share
expecting an increase in the next six months fell to 13.6 percent, the
lowest since October 2011.
Labor Market
The number of respondents who said jobs are currently plentiful declined to
8.6 percent in January from 10.8 percent. Those who said jobs are hard to
get rose to 37.7 percent from 36.1 percent.
Increased pessimism about the labor market may be seeping into purchase
plans. The share of Americans planning to buy a car in the next six months
fell to 10.1 percent, the lowest since April 2012.
The share of households expecting interest rates to climb in the next year
increased to 49.9 percent in January, the highest since August 2011.
Today’s figures mirror other measures of consumer confidence. The Bloomberg
Consumer Comfort Index dropped in the week ended Jan. 20 to the lowest
level since early October as Americans’ concerns about the economy mounted.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer
sentiment dropped in January to its lowest point since December 2011.
These reports also showed that a decrease in take-home pay from the increase
in payroll taxes is weighing on attitudes. Americans earning $50,000 a year
will take home about $80 less a month after the tax used to pay for Social
Security benefits went up to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent.
Budget Debate
While lawmakers avoided broad-based increases in income taxes, Congress is
now debating how best to reduce the nation’s budget deficit. Automatic
spending cuts are slated to go into effect March 1.
Walgreen Co. (WAG), the largest U.S. drugstore chain, sees customers who
have grown more value conscious.
“Many of our customers are concerned about long-term employment,” Kermit
Crawford, president of the company’s pharmacy, health and wellness business
, said at a health-care conference on Jan. 7. “They’re concerned about
issues such as Medicare and Social Security. They’re concerned about the
debt issues. It’s changing the way they think about value. It’s changing
the way they shop.”
Employment gains are helping sustain demand. Employers added 155,000 workers
in December, according to Labor Department data. For all of 2012, the
economy created 1.84 million jobs, matching the gain in 2011. It’s the best
back-to-back reading since 2005-2006.
Consumers are also paying less at the gas pump. The average price of a
gallon of gas yesterday was $3.36, down from a recent high of $3.87 in
September, according to data from AAA, the biggest U.S. motoring
organization. |
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