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发帖数: 29846 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-contracted-at-1-pace-in-
The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014, a serious—but
likely brief—stumble for a recovery that has struggled to find its footing
since the recession ended almost five years ago.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced
across the economy, contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1% in
the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
It was the first time economic output contracted since the first quarter of
2011, when it declined at a 1.3% pace.
"Severe weather conditions had a deeper impact on first quarter economic
activity than previously estimated," said Robert Hughes, a senior research
fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research. But, he said, "Much
of the weakness will likely result in pent-up demand and should reverse in
the second quarter."
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Government economists had previously estimated GDP slowed to a 0.1% growth
rate in the first quarter as harsh winter weather disrupted work sites,
curtailed foot traffic at retail stores and snarled transportation networks
across much of the U.S.
The newly revised estimate incorporates additional economic data released in
recent weeks. Higher-than-expected imports and slower-than-expected
inventory growth dragged the economy into negative territory.
But the weakness of the first quarter "was clearly exaggerated, particularly
by weather effects," High Frequency Economics chief U.S. economist Jim O'
Sullivan said in a note to clients. He and other economists predict the U.S.
economy will bounce back in the second quarter, though it isn't clear how
strong of a rebound is in the works. Gauges of industrial production, retail
sales and durable-goods orders all posted solid gains in February and March
before weakening in April.
U.S.-based corporations, meanwhile, posted slightly lower profits during the
first quarter. The Commerce Department said corporate profits after tax,
without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, totaled a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.880 trillion for the quarter. That is
down from profits of $1.905 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2013.
The three-month contraction isn't expected to herald a prolonged downturn,
though it's rare for the economy to shrink outside of a recession.
Even if it is temporary, the downturn reflects a pattern seen repeatedly
over the past five years. The worst recession since the Great Depression
ended in June 2009, but the economic recovery has struggled to gain traction
. Job growth has been largely lackluster even as the unemployment rate has
slowly fallen. Sluggish wage growth has restrained consumer spending. The
housing market surged in 2012 and into 2013, but has slowed over the past
year as mortgage rates have climbed and prices have surged.
Many economists had hoped 2014 would be a breakout year for growth,
encouraged by an economy that grew at a 3.4% pace in the second half of 2013
. Those hopes have been deferred—if not yet dashed—by the latest stretch
of weakness.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic
output, grew at a 3.1% pace in the first quarter, revised up from an initial
estimate of growth at a 3% pace. Spending on services, like health care and
household heating, grew at a 4.3% pace while spending on physical goods
rose at a more modest 0.7% pace.
A measure of business investment declined at a 1.6% pace, revised from an
initially estimated decline at a 2.1% pace. Spending on structures fell at a
7.5% pace and spending on equipment fell at a 3.1% rate. Investments in
intellectual property, like research and development, rose at a 5.1% pace.
The slowing housing market also was a drag on the economy in the first
quarter, with residential fixed investment contracting at a 5% pace and
subtracting 0.16 percentage point from GDP growth. The Commerce Department
had initially estimated the category declined at a 5.7% pace and subtracted
0.18 percentage point from GDP growth.
Winter weather likely disrupted both residential and commercial construction
projects in the first quarter. Bitter cold temperatures left the Great
Lakes choked with ice, making it difficult for Lafarge SA to move cement to
construction sites in the Northeast. "When you have frozen lakes, it means
that we can't use anymore our barges to transport cement, and that we as a
result incur fairly high levels of logistic costs and definitely much higher
than what you would normally have," finance chief Jean-Jacques Gauthier
told analysts earlier this month.
U.S. exports fell at a 6% pace in the first three months of the year, a
shallower fall than the initial estimate of 7.6%. But imports, which are
subtracted from the GDP calculation, rose at a 0.7% pace, compared with the
initial estimate that they declined at a 1.4% pace. International trade
overall was a drag on the economy, with net exports subtracting 0.95
percentage point from GDP growth.
A big buildup in private inventories boosted economic growth in the third
quarter of 2013, but left a hangover that weighed on growth in the first
quarter of 2014. Inventories subtracted 1.62 percentage points from GDP
growth, compared with an initial estimate of 0.57 percentage point
subtracted from growth.
The drag from inventories may largely past at this point. "The pace of
inventory-building has fallen by more than half since its [third-quarter]
peak, and is now below the rate needed to keep inventory-to-sales ratios
steady. That means the risk of a further significant inventory hit to [
second-quarter] growth is quite small," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief
economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note to clients.
Government spending cuts have weighed on growth in recent years, though the
effect was less pronounced in the first three months of 2014. Total
government spending subtracted 0.15 percentage point from GDP for the
quarter, compared with an initial estimate of 0.09 percentage point
subtracted from growth. Federal spending was a slight boost to overall
economic growth, but state and local government cutbacks created as a larger
drag.
A measure of GDP that strips out changes in private inventories, final sales
of domestic product, expanded at a 0.6% pace in the first quarter, revised
from an initial estimate of growth at a 0.7% pace.
A separate measure of demand among U.S. consumers and businesses that
includes imports and strips out inventory changes—final sales to domestic
purchasers—expanded at a 1.6% pace for the quarter, compared with an
initial estimate of growth at a 1.5% rate. That's in line with the category'
s 1.6% growth rate for all of 2013. |
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