l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 By Patrick J. Michaels
This article appeared on National Review (Online) on May 30, 2014.
On June 2, the Environmental Protection Agency is going to announce new
rules for existing coal-fired power plants, most likely a 20 percent
reduction in allowable carbon dioxide emissions. The only way this will be
possible will be by upgrading almost all combustion units, and the ultimate
cost of the upgrades will make coal noncompetitive with much-less-expensive
natural gas–fired facilities.
The EPA’s proposed new greenhouse-gas regulations are a campaign promise
come true. In 2008, Senator Barack Obama announced that, if elected, his
climate policies would “necessarily bankrupt” anyone who wanted to build a
new coal-fired power plant.
Public comments on EPA’s proposal to do just that closed on May 9, and
there is no chance that the president will renege — or that this policy
will have any detectable effect on global temperature.
The EPA’s own model, ironically acronymed MAGICC, estimates that its new
policies will prevent a grand total of 0.018ºC in warming by 2100.
Obviously, that’s not enough to satisfy the steadily shrinking percentage
of Americans who think global warming is a serious problem.
MAGICC tells us that the futility of whatever Obama proposes for existing
plants will be statistically indistinguishable from making sure that there
are no new coal-fired ones. In fact, dropping the carbon dioxide emissions
from all sources of electrical generation to zero would reduce warming by a
grand total of 0.04ºC by 2100.
This is hardly going to stop the crescendo of global-warming horror stories,
perhaps best summarized by the government’s recently released “National
Assessment” of the effects of climate change on our country.
For example, the assessment tells us that global warming will increase
mental illness in our nation’s cities. The obvious implication is that
people in Richmond are crazier than they are in Washington, 100 miles to the
north. Or that people must really be loony in Miami.
But what about all the weird weather plaguing the country? What the
alarmists don’t tell you is that not since records were kept in the 1860s
have we have gone this long without a Category 3 hurricane’s crossing our
shoreline. They omit that there’s no evidence of an increase in weather-
related damages once you adjust for the fact that there are now more people
with more expensive stuff to hit. Even the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, so often cited to justify our futile policies,
acknowledges that one.
The politics of scaring people to death over climate change are probably
more dangerous than the weather. And research suggests that the more people
read that some “scientists say” the world is about to end, the less they
believe them.
Chalk it up to apocalypse fatigue. By my best guess, global warming is the
eighth environmental Armageddon I have lived through. Who even remembers
that, according to some of our most esteemed scientists, “acid rain” was
going to cause an “ecological silent spring”? Like so many global
catastrophes, it was a bit exaggerated.
You’d think the administration would see not just how futile these policies
are in addressing climate change but also how costly they are politically.
Some compelling analysis of polls shows that the Republicans gained control
of the House of Representatives in the 2010 election because, under
Democratic leadership, it passed cap-and-trade, which the Senate wisely
stopped short of. In Australia, similar policies favoring cap-and-trade cost
the Liberal party its leader in 2009 and subsequently sacked two Labour
prime ministers, Keven Rudd and Julia Gillard.
Is this really the road the administration wants to go down in 2014? If
history is any guide, a pretty steep price will be paid on Election Day —
all for policies that will have no measurable effect on climate change.
Patrick J. Michaels is director of the Center for the Study of Science at
the Cato Institute and a senior fellow in research and economic development
at George Mason University. | m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 2 haha 果然是军无戏言
伯理玺天德 应该再狠一点直接禁止煤炭进口，交易及在美国国内使用。煤炭开采需要
先有出口合同对应。
此计定可抵抗通缩，减少污染，吸引雾霾国殷实百姓投奔我邦，可谓一石三鸟之凉厕！！
虽然油电价略有提升，但是对于湾区贫困县左近家庭，及本版地富反坏右，
均影响甚微
ultimate
expensive
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: By Patrick J. Michaels
: This article appeared on National Review (Online) on May 30, 2014.
: On June 2, the Environmental Protection Agency is going to announce new
: rules for existing coal-fired power plants, most likely a 20 percent
: reduction in allowable carbon dioxide emissions. The only way this will be
: possible will be by upgrading almost all combustion units, and the ultimate
: cost of the upgrades will make coal noncompetitive with much-less-expensive
: natural gas–fired facilities.
: The EPA’s proposed new greenhouse-gas regulations are a campaign promise
: come true. In 2008, Senator Barack Obama announced that, if elected, his
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