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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 GDP Revisions Detail Weak Economy
via Breitbart Feed
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released its advance estimate of 2nd
Quarter GDP growth, reporting growth of 4%. The number was higher than
economists' expectations of 3% growth in the quarter. Commerce noted,
however, that this advance estimate is subject to future revision. Advance
estimates for the 1st Quarter showed a 0.1% growth. That number was revised
further today to a 2.1% contraction, orders of magnitude worse than the
initial estimate.
Some observers have already expressed caution about Wednesday's upbeat
report. Inventory build-up contributed 1.66 percentage points to 2nd Quarter
GDP growth, almost half of the total increase. Businesses build up
inventories on the expectation of future sales, which may take time to cycle
through the economy. If sales don't meet the inventory build, future
economic growth will be weaker.
Concern over the inventory build-up in the quarter is warranted, but itself
is just a snapshot look at the economy. An economy as large as the US, made
up of more than 300 million people, has innumerable moving parts that make a
quarter-by-quarter analysis imperfect. Data is always far behind actual
economic activity.
A bigger concern, then, is the more than a decade of revisions to GDP also
released on Wednesday. Commerce reported that between the end of 2010 and
the first three months of 2014, the economy grew by just 1.8%, which the
Wall Street Journal noted was an historic post-war low. For the past two
years, real GDP growth was revised down to 2.0% growth, from earlier
estimates of 2.2% growth.
Overall, as data eventually becomes more complete, most economic indices
have been revised downward. In other words, whatever our snapshot estimate
of growth is at any time, it is generally actually lower than reported.
This is important as the Federal Reserve considers an end to its money
pumping, i.e. quantitative easing. Since the financial crisis, the Fed has
purchased more than $3 trillion in bonds in an attempt to prop up the
economy. The Fed infusion of money, in fact, has been more than the economy
has grown since the recession.
Throughout much of last year, the Fed was pumping $85 billion a month into
the economy. That number has since been scaled back to around $35 billion a
month currently, with the Fed planning to further reduce the infusion of
liquidity later this year.
The original theory behind quantitative easing was that the Fed infusion
would bridge a gap until the economy recovered organically. The GDP
revisions announced Wednesday detail that this hasn't happened. | b*****e
发帖数: 53215 | 2 我老早就说了，这个万米统计局的剂量也不是第一次用了
先高调公布个大的，普天同庆，然后犄角旮旯再调整一个小的，算没撒谎
revised
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: GDP Revisions Detail Weak Economy
: via Breitbart Feed
: On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released its advance estimate of 2nd
: Quarter GDP growth, reporting growth of 4%. The number was higher than
: economists' expectations of 3% growth in the quarter. Commerce noted,
: however, that this advance estimate is subject to future revision. Advance
: estimates for the 1st Quarter showed a 0.1% growth. That number was revised
: further today to a 2.1% contraction, orders of magnitude worse than the
: initial estimate.
: Some observers have already expressed caution about Wednesday's upbeat
| d*****n
发帖数: 754 | 3 旧社会地主收放粮食，大斗收，小斗放，反正多少地地主说了算。剥削阶级的新心都是
相通
revised
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: GDP Revisions Detail Weak Economy
: via Breitbart Feed
: On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released its advance estimate of 2nd
: Quarter GDP growth, reporting growth of 4%. The number was higher than
: economists' expectations of 3% growth in the quarter. Commerce noted,
: however, that this advance estimate is subject to future revision. Advance
: estimates for the 1st Quarter showed a 0.1% growth. That number was revised
: further today to a 2.1% contraction, orders of magnitude worse than the
: initial estimate.
: Some observers have already expressed caution about Wednesday's upbeat
| t*******y
发帖数: 21396 | 4 哈哈，看来左逼宣布经济增长真是击中某些人G点了，连小报新闻都拿出来当宝了，这
就是你消息来源把？
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government
羞羞答答干啥那，自己写一篇不完了，效果一样。 | T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 5 有道理。原来是老把戏。
更不要说将来绝对还不起的国和地方债务了。
The Recovery Doesn't Look As Good After A Revision Buried In Today's GDP
Report
The current economic recovery is still just so-so.
As part of Wednesday's initial GDP report from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, the BEA also revised GDP for 2011 to 2013 down to 2.0% from 2.2%.
For the period spanning the fourth quarter of 2010 through the first quarter
of this year, real GDP growth remained 1.8%, the same rate as previously
published
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 我老早就说了，这个万米统计局的剂量也不是第一次用了
: 先高调公布个大的，普天同庆，然后犄角旮旯再调整一个小的，算没撒谎
:
: revised
| a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 6 跟我党国家统计局接轨了。
当然， 最牛屄的还是12年大选前最后一次的失业率数据。
O8调动了大量政府力量，国家机器助选，Romney did even not know what hit him.
revised
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: GDP Revisions Detail Weak Economy
: via Breitbart Feed
: On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released its advance estimate of 2nd
: Quarter GDP growth, reporting growth of 4%. The number was higher than
: economists' expectations of 3% growth in the quarter. Commerce noted,
: however, that this advance estimate is subject to future revision. Advance
: estimates for the 1st Quarter showed a 0.1% growth. That number was revised
: further today to a 2.1% contraction, orders of magnitude worse than the
: initial estimate.
: Some observers have already expressed caution about Wednesday's upbeat
| t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 7 liberal 越来越不要脸，越来越没底线，把美国国家credit都葬送光了。
把一个法制国家变成了无视法制的国家。
【在 a*********a 的大作中提到】
: 跟我党国家统计局接轨了。
: 当然， 最牛屄的还是12年大选前最后一次的失业率数据。
: O8调动了大量政府力量，国家机器助选，Romney did even not know what hit him.
:
: revised
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