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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Dismal Retail Sales Numbers Suggest Recession Likely Underway: Overall +0.0%
, YoY +0.9%, Department Stores -2.2%
Economists were surprised by the dismal retail sales report this morning.
That's not surprising because economists are nearly always surprised.
The Bloomberg Consensus retail sales estimate was a rise of 0.2%, but sales
came in at 0.0% and the details were ugly, emphasis mine.
Consumer confidence may be strong but it still is not translating to
strength for consumer spending. Retail sales were unchanged in April vs
Econoday expectations for a 0.2 percent gain. Excluding autos, sales did
rise but only barely at plus 0.1 and below expectations for 0.5 percent,
while excluding both autos and gasoline, sales rose 0.2 percent vs
expectations for a 0.4 percent gain.
The surprising part of the report isn't the weakness in motor vehicles,
which was signaled by weak unit sales and which fell 0.4 percent in the
month, but weakness in some of the core readings including department stores
which fell a very steep 2.2 percent and electronics & appliances which fell
0.4 percent for a 7th straight decline. Both furniture and food & beverages
also show declines.
Year-on-year rates show just how weak growth in the retail sector has
been. Total retail sales are up only 0.9 percent year-on-year, down from 1.7
percent in March. This is the lowest rate since late 2009. Excluding motor
vehicles, year-on-year sales are unchanged, again the lowest reading since
late 2009. Ex-auto ex-gas, sales are up a respectable 3.4 percent but,
compared to 3.9 percent in March, are going in the wrong direction.
Estimated Retail Sales
The Census Department offers this Table of Retail Sales.
click on chart for sharper image
Note the huge patch of negative numbers this month. At least people are
still eating out and drinking more.
Also note the negative numbers in the November 2014 through January 2015
column.
Economists expected the decline in gasoline sales (down 7.2%) to translate
into increased sales elsewhere. It didn't.
I am scratching my head over Bloomberg's statement "consumer confidence may
be strong ...". What the heck is Bloomberg talking about?
Does Bloomberg even read its own numbers? Here is a snip from the Bloomberg
Consumer Confidence Level Report for April 2015, released on 4/28/2015.
Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more
than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly
with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low
estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling
assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and
expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is
expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't
likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.
The most striking weakness in April is the assessment of future
conditions with the expectations component down 8.5 points to 87.5 for the
weakest reading going all the way back to September. And the most striking
weakness among the sub-components is employment, where fewer see more jobs
opening up 6 months from now and more see fewer jobs available. This spills
over into income where fewer see an increase ahead and more see a decrease.
But also weak is the present situation component which is down more than
2-1/2 points to 106.8 for its weakest reading since December.
The Fed is not looking at those numbers either. In the latest FOMC report
the Fed specifically stated "consumer sentiment remains high".
I mocked the Fed on April 29 in Fed Cites Weather, "Transitory" Factors in
FOMC Statement; What About Consumer Sentiment?
Autos Only Reason YoY Sales Are Positive
Autos are now the only thing keeping retail sales positive year-over-year.
And auto sales are driven by subprime loans. How long is this party going to
last?
Who wants a car, needs a car, can afford a car, and can get a car loan? |
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