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发帖数: 29846 | 1 4th Quarter GDPNow Forecast Plunges to 1.3% Following Housing and Other Data
; What's Next?
In the wake of recent data, the 4th quarter GDPNow Forecast dipped to 1.3%
from 1.9% on December 16.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/4th-quarter-gdpnow-forecast-plunges-to.html#MyxEHJp6hbtpZom9.99
From the Atlanta Fed: "After yesterday's third-quarter GDP revision and this
morning's personal income and outlays release, both from the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis, the nowcast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending
growth fell from 2.6 percent to 2.1 percent. The nowcast for real
residential investment growth fell from 8.0 percent to 0.9 percent after
yesterday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of
Realtors."
I took one look at recent housing data and concluded GDP would take a big
hit vs. prior expectations. And that's precisely what transpired given the
oversized plunge in residential growth from 8% to 0.9%.
But sometimes things do not turn out as appears intuitively obvious.
Such was the case following strong a construction report on December 1 in
which the GDPNow model forecast took a dive only to recover on other data
later, then plunge as we have seen today. |
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