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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/death-watch-
Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension
Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up
Illinois Pension Problems Mount
Illinois' unfunded liabilities have risen ten out of the last eleven years.
The only exception was 2011. This was despite massive rallies in financial
markets every year since 2009.
One out of every five tax dollars goes to pensions, but that's nowhere close
to enough to stem the tide.
Illinois has the worst funded pension plans in the nation. Those plans are a
mere 42% funded in aggregate.
That bleak estimate understates the problem because it assumes 8% annualized
returns going forward. Those returns are not going to happen.
I expect 0-2% returns at best, and most likely negative real returns for
seven to ten years.
Still No Budget
In October, Moody's cut Illinois debt to one step above junk, specifically
citing pensions as the "greatest challenge". Lower ratings have driven up
borrowing costs. In turn, rising borrowing costs mean less money to spend
elsewhere.
The new year is less than a week away, but Illinois still does not have a
budget.
Bloomberg reports Illinois Record Budget Impasse Makes It Worse for the
State's Pension Disaster.
As 2015 draws to a close, Illinois marks half a year without a budget.
No spending plan has driven up borrowing costs, sunk its credit rating, and
perhaps worst of all, exacerbated the state’s biggest problem: its
underfunded pensions.
Home to the least-funded state retirement system in the nation, Illinois
has $111 billion of pension debt, which breaks down to more than $8,000 per
resident. Partisan gridlock has produced the longest budget impasse in
Illinois history. The stalemate has not only weakened state finances, it has
kept lawmakers from finding a fix for those mounting liabilities.
It’s been seven months since the Illinois Supreme Court rejected the
state’s solution. Justices threw out the 2013 restructuring that took six
attempts over 16 months to pass, despite one-party rule at the time. The
measure was projected to save $145 billion over 30 years by limiting cost-of
-living adjustments and raising the retirement age.
Illinois enters 2016 snarled in partisan bickering as Governor Bruce
Rauner, the state’s first Republican chief executive in 12 years, and the
Democrat-controlled legislature can’t agree on annual appropriations, much
less an overhaul of a retirement system that must withstand an inevitable
legal challenge. The state constitution bans reducing worker retirement
benefits.
In July, Rauner laid out a plan to create a tiered system to cut
retirement liabilities. At the time, he said it would save taxpayers
billions of dollars. The proposal, which included a measure to allow
municipalities to file for bankruptcy protection, was never introduced,
according to Catherine Kelly, his spokeswoman.
Illinois hasn’t sold bonds since April 2014, a record borrowing drought
. The spread on its existing debt has widened. Investors demand 1.8
percentage points of extra yield to own 30-year Illinois bonds, the most
among the 20 states tracked by Bloomberg. When the spread climbs, that’s
reflecting that investors think the problem is getting worse, said Richard
Ciccarone, Chicago-based chief executive officer of Merritt Research
Services.
“What’s the root cause of why we’re in the problem we’re in?”
Ciccarone said. “It’s down to the pensions.”
Illinois is like a patient in the emergency room, said Paul Mansour at
Conning, which oversees $11 billion of munis, including Illinois securities.
Death Watch Illinois
Illinois is terminal. Pension cancer is too deep and has spread too far to
save the patient. The state is bankrupt morally, politically, and monetarily.
However, there is no provision for state bankruptcy (something US Congress
needs to address). Regardless, what cannot be paid won't.
Illinois cancer is not just at the state level. The cancer permeates cities
far and wide.
The Chicago Board of Education is already dead whether the coroner or Mayor
Rahm Emmanuel makes the announcement or not.
Tax hikes won't help the dead or dying. Instead they will cause the healthy
and able to flee.
Many Illinois cities lie in a bankruptcy coffin, but the current law will
not let the coroner make that announcement.
The best way to ease municipality pain is to pass a law allowing municipal
bankruptcies. Such a bill would let terminal cities and taxing bodies move
to hospice to die in peace. That's something the Illinois legislature can
and should address.
Illinois Republicans, I have a question: Where the heck is that bill?
Fresh Start
Corrupt politicians in bed with union officials have hollowed out the state
beyond repair. Let's not pretend otherwise.
Illinois needs a fresh start:
Bankruptcies at the municipal level
A new constitution that allows pension cuts at the state level
Right to work laws
End of collective bargaining of government employees
End of prevailing wage laws
Tax reform, especially property tax reform
Workers' compensation reform
Unemployment insurance reform
Until we see those changes, the state will lay on the death-bed slowly
bleeding workers and businesses in a fate worse than death by bankruptcy or
default.
Sobering Pension Assessment
As noted above Illinois pension plans are 42% funded, and that's with
projected returns of 8%. If returns average 2% or even 5%, liabilities and
under-fundings will soar.
Unfortunately, history suggests 0% is more likely. | n****g
发帖数: 14743 | 2 早死早超升
.
close
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/death-watch-
: Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension
: Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up
: Illinois Pension Problems Mount
: Illinois' unfunded liabilities have risen ten out of the last eleven years.
: The only exception was 2011. This was despite massive rallies in financial
: markets every year since 2009.
: One out of every five tax dollars goes to pensions, but that's nowhere close
: to enough to stem the tide.
: Illinois has the worst funded pension plans in the nation. Those plans are a
| g***m
发帖数: 15 | 3 Obama is making worse to come,
【在 n****g 的大作中提到】
: 早死早超升
:
: .
: close
| r***i
发帖数: 9780 | 4 加税的结果吧？
搜了下，无意中看到这个
2011-01-12 17:19:27
1民主党控制的伊利诺伊州国会通过加税法案，个人所得税增加67%，商业收入税增加46%
Quinn congratulates Democrats on income tax increase
Share |
Posted by Ray Long and Monique Garcia at 2:15 a.m.
A triumphant Gov. Pat Quinn congratulated fellow Democrats early today after
the Illinois Senate and House sent him a major income tax increase without
a single Republican vote in favor.
Quinn smiled and shook hands on the floor of the Senate around 1:30 a.m.
after the Senate voted 30-29 for the bill, which would raise the personal
income tax-r | T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | | f*****e
发帖数: 5177 | 6 Governor Quinn知道IL的财政问题。所以一上任就提出财政解决方案，一条是加税，个
人所得税从3%加到5%，5年以后降到3.75%。其实这个也还算合理。IL虽然是主党州，但
是5%的个人税比起周围的和党州，比如wisconsin，还是要低。第二条是加商业税。第
三条是削减pension。其实他的方向是对的。各个方面都牺牲一些。但是他的问题是没
有执行力。
首先起来反对的是大公司，第一个站出来的就是波音。波音说，你TM要敢加我的税，我
就搬家。政府马上就萎了。通过修正案，把波音的税又降回去了。其他公司，比如
cartepillar，纷纷效仿。最后只有中小企业没人管。
第二个出来反对的是公会。其实原本Quinn已经和公会达成削减pension的协议。但是公
会一看Quinn把大公司一个个的放过了，觉得自己亏了。于是跟Quinn翻脸了。打官司一
直打到今年。
今年Quinn实在没办法了，只好恬着脸要继续加税5年。
这一下子他同时得罪了tax payer，union和business，所以选举输的一塌糊涂。
46%
after
【在 r***i 的大作中提到】
: 加税的结果吧？
: 搜了下，无意中看到这个
: 2011-01-12 17:19:27
: 1民主党控制的伊利诺伊州国会通过加税法案，个人所得税增加67%，商业收入税增加46%
: Quinn congratulates Democrats on income tax increase
: Share |
: Posted by Ray Long and Monique Garcia at 2:15 a.m.
: A triumphant Gov. Pat Quinn congratulated fellow Democrats early today after
: the Illinois Senate and House sent him a major income tax increase without
: a single Republican vote in favor.
| u***n
发帖数: 21026 | | e**********0
发帖数: 502 | 8 望科普一下
pension这个大坑最一开始是怎么出现的？
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: Governor Quinn知道IL的财政问题。所以一上任就提出财政解决方案，一条是加税，个
: 人所得税从3%加到5%，5年以后降到3.75%。其实这个也还算合理。IL虽然是主党州，但
: 是5%的个人税比起周围的和党州，比如wisconsin，还是要低。第二条是加商业税。第
: 三条是削减pension。其实他的方向是对的。各个方面都牺牲一些。但是他的问题是没
: 有执行力。
: 首先起来反对的是大公司，第一个站出来的就是波音。波音说，你TM要敢加我的税，我
: 就搬家。政府马上就萎了。通过修正案，把波音的税又降回去了。其他公司，比如
: cartepillar，纷纷效仿。最后只有中小企业没人管。
: 第二个出来反对的是公会。其实原本Quinn已经和公会达成削减pension的协议。但是公
: 会一看Quinn把大公司一个个的放过了，觉得自己亏了。于是跟Quinn翻脸了。打官司一
| l*******g
发帖数: 27064 | 9 加税=杀鸡取卵
经济不行的地方最好免税才能刺激投资，搞活经济
一加50%完全是自杀
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: Governor Quinn知道IL的财政问题。所以一上任就提出财政解决方案，一条是加税，个
: 人所得税从3%加到5%，5年以后降到3.75%。其实这个也还算合理。IL虽然是主党州，但
: 是5%的个人税比起周围的和党州，比如wisconsin，还是要低。第二条是加商业税。第
: 三条是削减pension。其实他的方向是对的。各个方面都牺牲一些。但是他的问题是没
: 有执行力。
: 首先起来反对的是大公司，第一个站出来的就是波音。波音说，你TM要敢加我的税，我
: 就搬家。政府马上就萎了。通过修正案，把波音的税又降回去了。其他公司，比如
: cartepillar，纷纷效仿。最后只有中小企业没人管。
: 第二个出来反对的是公会。其实原本Quinn已经和公会达成削减pension的协议。但是公
: 会一看Quinn把大公司一个个的放过了，觉得自己亏了。于是跟Quinn翻脸了。打官司一
| l*******g
发帖数: 27064 | 10 民猪党的地方，当然都是收买票蛆，大福利造成的严重收支不平衡
另外左逼官员很会挥霍钱的，例如奥粑粑，一次度假就至少花纳税人几千万
反正花别人钱不心疼
相对而言，共和党的官员不愿意自己多被掏钱，一般也很注意不乱花别人的钱
【在 e**********0 的大作中提到】
: 望科普一下
: pension这个大坑最一开始是怎么出现的？
| T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 11 上至左逼官员、下至左逼民众，都是花别人的钱不心疼。而且很底气凛然的样子。
但是如撒切尔夫人所说，The problem with socialism is that you eventually run
out of other people's money.
【在 l*******g 的大作中提到】
: 民猪党的地方，当然都是收买票蛆，大福利造成的严重收支不平衡
: 另外左逼官员很会挥霍钱的，例如奥粑粑，一次度假就至少花纳税人几千万
: 反正花别人钱不心疼
: 相对而言，共和党的官员不愿意自己多被掏钱，一般也很注意不乱花别人的钱
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