USANews版 - Trump Soars in Latest CA, NY, CT, MD, PA Polls |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of
recent polls in five states.
Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut,
Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries
did Trump lose ground.
State by state, lets take a look.
California
In the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points
over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.
This was barely enough to tip the state to Trump’s category from Cruz in
Silver’s Secret Sauce methodology, but in Polls only things are looking
might good for Trump.
Nate Silver’s Polls Only California Forecast
New York
Each of the three most recent polls has Trump with a 50%+ majority of the
vote. This matters because he needs a 50% margin to sweep the the 14 state
delegates. Trump will also sweep any districts in which he gets 50% or more.
In the latest poll, Cruz and Kasich are neck and neck. I gave Trump 86 of 95
. The final breakdown may look something like this: 86 Trump, 5 Cruz, 4
Kasich.
We will find out on Tuesday.
Connecticut
Emerson college conducted the first Connecticut poll since November. Here
are the results.
I predicted Trump would win 19 of 28 Connecticut delegates. If Trump can top
50%, he could conceivably get all 28.
There’s another interesting twist. At the district level, one needs 20% to
pick up delegates. It is possible Kasich wins a handful of delegates with
Cruz winning zero.
Pennsylvania
Trumped picked up ground in Pennsylvania from the second most recent poll.
Pennsylvania is a curious state that awards only 17 of its 71 delegates to
the winner. The other 54 are unbound.
Cruz’s organization is highly unlikely to pick up all of those. In fact,
slightly more than half of Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates said they’d
support the candidate who wins the popular vote statewide or in their
districts, according to a survey conducted by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Things look far better for Trump in Pennsylvania than most believe.
Maryland
Donald Trump surged a whopping 14 percentage points compared to the second
most recent poll.
I had already awarded all 32 Maryland delegates, so there is nothing more
for him to pick up.
Every Poll Breaking Hard in Favor of Trump
For whatever reason, every recent poll is breaking very hard in Trump’s
favor.
Perhaps some of Trump’s recent comments on abortion have worn off. Perhaps
it is something obscure that Cruz did or said.
Cruz’s inane comments on sex toys could even have played a part, or might
still.
It doesn’t matter that much why. But every recent poll, including
California, Pennsylvania, and Maryland breaking Trump’s way is a sign this
is not just the Northeast.
If these totals hold and Indiana follows suit, the nomination goes to trump
barring a rules change at the convention. | t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | | m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 3 Logic98手抚菊花痛不作声，党国将亡何处为奴 | j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 4 拉稀里丢过来一根骨头。。。
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: Logic98手抚菊花痛不作声，党国将亡何处为奴
| H***l
发帖数: 1936 | | t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 6 老巫婆拉一泡稀的他可能也能舔
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: Logic98手抚菊花痛不作声，党国将亡何处为奴
| m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 7 这个人无耻，天天上来就做一件事情，和左逼骂TRUMP，骂支持床铺的群众。然后还有
脸哭哭啼啼喊党国要忘罪在床粉
【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】
: 拉稀里丢过来一根骨头。。。
| B*N
发帖数: 455 | 8 大家在讨论纽约及东北地区选情的时候忘记一个可能，就是即便闯王不能拿下足够的代
表票也没关系，剩余的代表票莱茵泰德也不会得到，反而是开塞客会拿一部分。甚至比
莱茵泰德多 | a*d
发帖数: 376 | | h*******u
发帖数: 15326 | 10 不要管poll
去投票就成
of
points
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of
: recent polls in five states.
: Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut,
: Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries
: did Trump lose ground.
: State by state, lets take a look.
: California
: In the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points
: over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.
: This was barely enough to tip the state to Trump’s category from Cruz in
| KV
发帖数: 5728 | 11 明天如果大赢纽约将改变目前被动局面，也会是双方彻底寻求妥协之路的开始，trump
需要为ge做准备了。
of
points
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of
: recent polls in five states.
: Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut,
: Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries
: did Trump lose ground.
: State by state, lets take a look.
: California
: In the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points
: over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.
: This was barely enough to tip the state to Trump’s category from Cruz in
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