G*******9
发帖数: 35 | 1 source: wiki
As early as June 2015, FiveThirtyEight argued that Donald Trump "isn't a
real candidate"[84] and maintained that Trump could not win the nomination
until late in the election season.[85] When Donald Trump became the
presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist
Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized
FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by
giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls
in his favor...they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his
record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals".[86]
In a long retrospective "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald
Trump," published in May 2016 after Trump had become the likely nominee,
Silver reviewed how he had erred in evaluating Trump's chances early in the
primary campaign. Silver wrote, "The big mistake is a curious one for a
website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we
publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections
I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based
on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we [call] 'subjective odds'
— which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically
acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we
succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not
changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a
model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside
like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things".[87]
On the Democratic side, FiveThirtyEight argued that Sen. Bernie Sanders
could "lose everywhere else after Iowa and New Hampshire" [88] and that the
"Democratic establishment would rush in to squash" him if he doesn't.[89]
Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, a media watch group, wrote in May 2016
that FiveThirtyEight "sacrificed its integrity to go after Sanders" and that
they have "at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of
hackery—that is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were
objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions"
[90] | r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 2 538看媒体民调下注的。媒体偏向那么严重，不应该做所谓的民调。美国媒体的公信力
还不如中央电视台。 | j*******r
发帖数: 412 | |
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