a*******1
发帖数: 1554 | 1 If the U.S. presidential election were held today, Democrat Hillary Clinton
would win the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia and have a 95
percent chance of beating Republican Donald Trump to become America's first
female president, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
project.
The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting
patterns under different election scenarios, shows Clinton currently beating
Trump in the popular vote by six percentage points and ahead in 19 states,
including most of the larger-population ones that heavily influence the
outcome of the election.
At the moment, Clinton would win at least 268 votes in the Electoral College
, the body that ultimately chooses the next president, just two shy of what
she needs to win the White House. On average, the former secretary of state
would win by 108 electoral college votes.
Trump would win at least 21 states, many of them with smaller populations,
giving him a minimum of 179 electoral votes.
The election is still 10 weeks away, and a great deal could change prior to
Nov 8. The candidates are running about even in eight states, including
Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, and the polling sample is too
small to determine the winner in Alaska, Wyoming and Washington D.C. But
Trump would need to win the 21 states currently in his column and sweep all
of the remaining "toss-up" states to win the presidency.
That is a steep challenge for Trump, whose bare-knuckled, anti-establishment
campaign helped him win the Republican Party's nomination but has so far
failed to build broad support with voters.
If Trump cannot draw in far greater numbers of women, moderate Republican
voters and minorities, he will almost surely lose the White House race,
according to the polling project.
Consider, for example, what would be an ideal scenario for Trump: white men
with below-average incomes showing up in record numbers on Election Day.
This group strongly favors the real-estate mogul, yet even if all of them
vote it wouldn't hand Trump any of the states currently slated for Clinton
or any of the toss-up states. Clinton would still win the election.
The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project is driven by an online survey
that gathers responses from about 16,000 people per week. Respondents
answer questions about their demographic background, their party affiliation
and their choice for president. Their responses are weighted according to
the latest population estimates, and each respondent is ranked according to
their likelihood to vote.
Once the poll is complete, the project tallies the levels of support and
estimated error for both candidates, and then runs multiple election
simulations given their respective support. A separate set of simulations is
run for each state and Washington D.C. The project runs more than 25
million simulations to determine the chances that one candidate would win. | j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 2 哟，你丫这个广州廊五又准时上班了，是你们廊坊还是广州的民调啊？
Clinton
95
first
beating
,
【在 a*******1 的大作中提到】
: If the U.S. presidential election were held today, Democrat Hillary Clinton
: would win the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia and have a 95
: percent chance of beating Republican Donald Trump to become America's first
: female president, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
: project.
: The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting
: patterns under different election scenarios, shows Clinton currently beating
: Trump in the popular vote by six percentage points and ahead in 19 states,
: including most of the larger-population ones that heavily influence the
: outcome of the election.
| f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 3 丫不敢贴出处，缺乏最基本的严谨。
不过表扬他的进步，总比他自己写那么一陀好多了。
【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】
: 哟，你丫这个广州廊五又准时上班了，是你们廊坊还是广州的民调啊？
:
: Clinton
: 95
: first
: beating
: ,
| p**b
发帖数: 194 | 4 哈哈哈哈，
这nm得脑残到什么程度才能得出或者相信这个明调 | r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 5 538 只敢说85%，这个更狠，几乎100%了，难怪老婊不搞拉力，躺赢。
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 丫不敢贴出处，缺乏最基本的严谨。
: 不过表扬他的进步，总比他自己写那么一陀好多了。
| R******1
发帖数: 394 | 6 属实。共和党今年选谁都比床铺靠谱。
Poll: Trump Trails Hillary in Ohio, But Kasich Would Be Winning by 24 Points
http://www.weeklystandard.com/poll-trump-trails-hillary-in-ohio-but-kasich-would-be-winning-by-24-points/article/2003924
Clinton
95
first
beating
,
【在 a*******1 的大作中提到】
: If the U.S. presidential election were held today, Democrat Hillary Clinton
: would win the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia and have a 95
: percent chance of beating Republican Donald Trump to become America's first
: female president, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
: project.
: The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting
: patterns under different election scenarios, shows Clinton currently beating
: Trump in the popular vote by six percentage points and ahead in 19 states,
: including most of the larger-population ones that heavily influence the
: outcome of the election.
| t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | | a*******1
发帖数: 1554 | | e*********1
发帖数: 311 | 9 傻逼，明明是100%,这贴质量太差，工资没有，罚款五毛。 | t*****1
发帖数: 1459 | | | | d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 11 才95%？昨天cnn不是已经分析过了么必须100%，不然他们以后8年的狗粮都要从墨西哥
买了
Clinton
95
first
beating
,
【在 a*******1 的大作中提到】
: 出处是这里：
: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/24/clinton-leads-trump-in-key-swing-states-would-likely-win-election-poll-suggests.html
: 右派又会说左媒的不算，没法沟通了。。。
: 我打个折扣，5%，还有90%的胜率。。。
| H****S
发帖数: 1359 | 12 Try harder, you are not good at trolling, are you? | k***x
发帖数: 6799 | 13 101%才对
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 才95%？昨天cnn不是已经分析过了么必须100%，不然他们以后8年的狗粮都要从墨西哥
: 买了
:
: Clinton
: 95
: first
: beating
: ,
| i*******r
发帖数: 32 | 14 Have a look comments on the report on cnbc website. Hardly see any positive
commente on the report
【在 a*******1 的大作中提到】
: 出处是这里：
: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/24/clinton-leads-trump-in-key-swing-states-would-likely-win-election-poll-suggests.html
: 右派又会说左媒的不算，没法沟通了。。。
: 我打个折扣，5%，还有90%的胜率。。。
| T********N
发帖数: 1507 | | a****n
发帖数: 1528 | |
|
