f********m
发帖数: 8397 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 USChineseRight 俱乐部 】
发信人: fatboyslim (fatboyslim), 信区: USChineseRight
标 题: Dilbert 的作者的blog关于trump非常有深度，而且好玩
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Sep 18 18:12:16 2016, 美东)
比如这篇最新文章
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150603095761/assessing-the-risk-of-trump
Assessing the Risk of Trump
Posted September 18th, 2016 @ 4:23pm in #Trump #Clinton
For over a year now I have been blogging about Trump’s talent for
persuasion, and that gives people the impression that I prefer him as my
president. That is not the case. I’ll tell you why at the end of this post.
The best choice for president depends on the types of challenges ahead. And
the future has a habit of surprising us. We have no way to predict whether
Clinton or Trump would end up being the right match for an unpredictable
future.
That said, let’s talk about assessing the risk – to the country – of
Trump versus Clinton. My observation of their histories and their
personalities suggests that Trump offers America an entrepreneur’s profile
of risk, whereas Clinton would be more like investing in a CD at your bank.
Which is better? The answer for you probably depends on how old you are, how
selfish you are, and how much money you have.
If things are going well for you and your family, you probably don’t want
to rock the boat. In that case, Clinton is a good choice for you. But if you
are young, or things are not working out well for you and your family, it
would be rational to accept higher risk with the hope of getting a bigger/
faster improvement.
But how big is the Trump risk to the economy and the country in general? Let
’s talk about how Trump has managed risk in the past. That’s the best way
to predict how he will do it in the future.
Diversification: Rule #1 for an investment portfolio is diversification.
Trump probably wasn’t sufficiently diversified early in his real estate
career, but now he has his name on about 500 entities and he has succeeded
across multiple fields. He understands diversification. That’s good.
A-B Testing: One of the best ways to manage risk is to try things on a small
scale and only double-down if the test is a success. We see Trump trying
out different Linguistic Kill Shots to see what sticks, changing campaign
staff as needed, and employing different campaign strategies depending on
the situation. We observe him being decisive when things don’t work (firing
people) and we watch him pivot quickly based on what he learns from testing
. That suggests a “systems” type of mind, as opposed to a “goal”
mentality. You can read more about that distinction in my book, which you
might enjoy because it has pages. The summary is that systems-thinkers
manage risk better.
Licensing: A big part of Trump’s business involves licensing his name. I
know a lot about licensing because I have done if for years with Dilbert.
Licensing is a great way to manage risk because I get paid in advance even
if the product that Dilbert’s image is licensed to adorn does not work out.
Trump does the same. He gets paid even if the project with his name on it
fails. That’s good risk management.
Likewise, Trump almost certainly negotiates for a lump sum advance payment
from publishers for his books. Trump gets paid even if the publisher loses
money. That’s good risk management.
Likewise also, The Apprentice probably paid Trump a guaranteed minimum no
matter the ratings. And if the show had failed, Trump would not have any
personal investment in it. He only had upside potential.
Two Ways to Win: We often see Trump choose strategies that have two ways to
win and no way to lose. That’s the best risk management of all. For example
, when Trump warned that Iran should release American prisoners before he
gets elected, he created two ways to win and no way to lose. If the
prisoners were released (and they were), Trump could claim his threat was
effective. (He did.) If Iran kept the prisoners, Trump could say the United
States needs a bad-ass President like him to deal with Iran.
Bankruptcies: When the general public hears that Trump had several
bankruptcies (out of hundreds of projects) they think that means he did
something wrong. Business people see a different picture. They see a
diversified portfolio of projects that are wisely siloed into their own
corporate entities so some can fail without taking the others with them.
That’s good risk management because one would naturally expect several
failures out of hundreds of projects.
Marriages: Trump is married to his third wife and still has good
relationships with his exes. Apparently Trump had good prenups, and good
lawyers. He managed the risk of divorce better than 90% of the people I know.
Alcohol and Drugs: Trump has never had a drink of alcohol or an illegal drug
, because of the risk. If you have ever consumed alcohol or taken illegal
drugs, you have a far higher tolerance for risk than Trump. He removed those
risks from his life. And those are some big risks.
Seeing the Future: One way to reduce risk is to predict the future better
than those around you. We know that Trump went all-in on his run for
president this time, but in prior election years he dropped out early.
Apparently he made the right decision this time because he could see himself
making it all the way.
We have also witnessed Trump using unorthodox campaign strategies that
almost everyone else in the world thought would fail. But apparently Trump
predicted the future better than the pundits. His methods have worked.
Trump hasn’t predicted the future correctly every time. As noted, several
of his projects did not work out. But evidently he expected there could be
some losers among his projects because he set them up as separate entities
that could fail on their own without dragging down the rest.
Listening to Advice: One of the criticisms we heard about Trump early in the
campaign is that he wouldn’t listen to experts. But now we have lots of
examples in which he has done exactly that. His entire campaign has
transformed in the past six weeks. We watched Trump assess the changing
election dynamics, take advice from advisors, adapt his approach, and spike
in the polls.
Trump is also good at firing people. The smartest person I know told me that
the most important skill of a leader is firing, not hiring. No one is smart
enough to hire the right people every time, so firing is the more valuable
skill. Trump apparently has that skill. Consider how hard it was to fire his
longtime friend Corey Lewandowski, and later Paul Manafort. Trump pulled
the trigger both times. And both moves proved to be helpful.
Trump’s Ego: Trump’s showmanship and branding comes off as ego, and
narcissism, and that can be scary to the public. You want to know your
President is making decisions based on what is good for the country, and not
what is good for the President’s ego. But Trump’s appearance on Jimmy
Fallon went a long way toward changing perceptions about his ego. Trump let
Fallon mess up his famous hair on TV, and it humanized Trump. We watched
Trump put his ego aside with no real effort.
We also see Trump doing more outreach to the African-American community,
toning down his rhetoric (mostly) and generally doing what the public has
been asking him to do. That suggests a candidate who has control of his ego.
He listens to the people and gives them what they want.
—
In my personal situation, things are going great for me, so that suggests
Clinton would be a safer choice in terms of managing my risk – both
financially and physically. Change isn’t necessarily good for me. But I’m
also at a point in my life where I’m focused on providing some public good
before I check out of the computer simulation we call life. So if my
American teammates prefer a Trump-like risk – because they think change is
needed for their own benefit – I’m okay with that. Pick the president you
want and I’ll work with it. I’ll be happy either way. | b******n
发帖数: 3103 | 2 我记得选举最初期还看过他写的分析川普有个年轻性感活力四射的老婆而希拉里丈夫老
态龙钟的巨大反差，是如何影响候选人在民众眼中的形象的。 | l******r
发帖数: 544 | 3 他说过: i live in California so I support Hillary for my safety. | f********m
发帖数: 8397 | 4 I endorse Hillary Clinton for president for personal safety:)
【在 l******r 的大作中提到】
: 他说过: i live in California so I support Hillary for my safety.
| z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 5 He said if Trump wins the Trump supporters will do no harm to him... While
the same cannot be said for the Clinton side...
He has been also expecting a Trump landslide, long before the recent Trump
surge
【在 f********m 的大作中提到】
: I endorse Hillary Clinton for president for personal safety:)
| f********m
发帖数: 8397 | 6 really? he said that?
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: He said if Trump wins the Trump supporters will do no harm to him... While
: the same cannot be said for the Clinton side...
: He has been also expecting a Trump landslide, long before the recent Trump
: surge
| z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 7 http://blog.dilbert.com/post/145456082991/my-endorsement-for-president-of-the-united-states
So I’ve decided to endorse Hillary Clinton for President, for my personal
safety. Trump supporters don’t have any bad feelings about patriotic
Americans such as myself, so I’ll be safe from that crowd. But Clinton
supporters have convinced me – and here I am being 100% serious – that my
safety is at risk if I am seen as supportive of Trump. So I’m taking the
safe way out and endorsing Hillary Clinton for president.
As I have often said, I have no psychic powers and I don’t know which
candidate would be the best president. But I do know which outcome is most
likely to get me killed by my fellow citizens. So for safety reason, I’m on
team Clinton.
My prediction remains that Trump will win in a landslide based on his
superior persuasion skills. But don’t blame me for anything President Trump
does in office because I endorse Clinton.
【在 f********m 的大作中提到】
: really? he said that?
| f********m
发帖数: 8397 | 8 hahahah
my
on
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/145456082991/my-endorsement-for-president-of-the-united-states
: So I’ve decided to endorse Hillary Clinton for President, for my personal
: safety. Trump supporters don’t have any bad feelings about patriotic
: Americans such as myself, so I’ll be safe from that crowd. But Clinton
: supporters have convinced me – and here I am being 100% serious – that my
: safety is at risk if I am seen as supportive of Trump. So I’m taking the
: safe way out and endorsing Hillary Clinton for president.
: As I have often said, I have no psychic powers and I don’t know which
: candidate would be the best president. But I do know which outcome is most
: likely to get me killed by my fellow citizens. So for safety reason, I’m on
|
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