b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 1 Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
Independents is is YUGE.
Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
Independent voters, making this a landslide.
These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
people.
The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
The Trump LANDSLIDE is underway in Florida!
See for yourself the up to date data on the Trump LEAD in Florida here:
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/
AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats |
f****g
发帖数: 23666 | 2 大家加油
pacing
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
: Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
: Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
: Independents is is YUGE.
: Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
: due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
: Independent voters, making this a landslide.
: These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
: people.
: The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
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D*********1
发帖数: 1548 | |
b****y
发帖数: 480 | |
g*****w
发帖数: 1413 | 5 顶
【在 f****g 的大作中提到】
: 大家加油
:
: pacing
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a******e
发帖数: 5411 | 6 way to go.
trump
for the fucking win |
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 7 和党主党registered voter差不多持平 assume independent 投床铺多数 |
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 8 主党不是申请延几天register么 搞不好在拼命造假呢 |
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 9 way to go, way to go!
pacing
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
: Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
: Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
: Independents is is YUGE.
: Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
: due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
: Independent voters, making this a landslide.
: These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
: people.
: The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 10 How to interpret the data? I see republicans slightly exceeding democrats
in early voting ballot request. I can also see Rs were a few hundred Ks
behind Ds in 2014. Any link to the 2012 election?
pacing
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
: Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
: Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
: Independents is is YUGE.
: Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
: due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
: Independent voters, making this a landslide.
: These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
: people.
: The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
|
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 11 没啥用，除了注册非移，很多人注册的时候claim主党，投的时候投老川你也控制不了
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 主党不是申请延几天register么 搞不好在拼命造假呢
|
b****y
发帖数: 480 | 12 You son of the bitch! What do you still have after cutting your mom-fucking
mouth?
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
: Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
: Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
: Independents is is YUGE.
: Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
: due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
: Independent voters, making this a landslide.
: These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
: people.
: The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
|
T*******u
发帖数: 1908 | 13 这个确实牛逼，很少REP能比DEM投票的人多吧？
并且今年中间选民人数也很牛逼啊
可惜不能看到投了谁
不过不要掉以轻心，因为REP向来投票热情高，早期都是REP人多
希望能拿下FL |
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 14 早期R好像应该比D多一些，所以可能不是利于TRUMP的，哪里有2012年的数据？
【在 T*******u 的大作中提到】
: 这个确实牛逼，很少REP能比DEM投票的人多吧？
: 并且今年中间选民人数也很牛逼啊
: 可惜不能看到投了谁
: 不过不要掉以轻心，因为REP向来投票热情高，早期都是REP人多
: 希望能拿下FL
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m****n
发帖数: 2415 | |
T*******u
发帖数: 1908 | 16 早期投票的应该是R多，但是以往注册选民好像都是D多
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 早期R好像应该比D多一些，所以可能不是利于TRUMP的，哪里有2012年的数据？
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m*******p
发帖数: 1978 | |
j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 18 提前投票向来都是民主党多。Romney election当天的投票都超过黑8。 |
j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 19 提前投票向来都是民主党多。Romney election当天的投票都超过黑8。 |
j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 20 提前投票向来都是民主党多。Romney election当天的投票都超过黑8。 |
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k******1
发帖数: 1393 | 21 你说的对， 实际上request ballot里R应该比D多很多，2008年的数据是R：51%， D：
32%。 （ http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160929/voting-early-record-number-of-florida-voters-request-absentee-ballots ）今年的早期投票情况其实是对Trump不利的。形势还很严峻。
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 早期R好像应该比D多一些，所以可能不是利于TRUMP的，哪里有2012年的数据？
|
b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 22 你以为那些无党派的是投稀破的多？
【在 k******1 的大作中提到】
: 你说的对， 实际上request ballot里R应该比D多很多，2008年的数据是R：51%， D：
: 32%。 （ http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160929/voting-early-record-number-of-florida-voters-request-absentee-ballots ）今年的早期投票情况其实是对Trump不利的。形势还很严峻。
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c**********g
发帖数: 824 | 23 仔细阅读后的理解是说今年independent大部分投trump，所以trump至今为止占优。并
不是因为R投票的人多。这是和以往很不同的。好兆头。 |
m*******p
发帖数: 1978 | 24 这得生活在多深的井里才能认为今年的I会大部分投床铺啊。
【在 c**********g 的大作中提到】
: 仔细阅读后的理解是说今年independent大部分投trump，所以trump至今为止占优。并
: 不是因为R投票的人多。这是和以往很不同的。好兆头。
|
m**i
发帖数: 9848 | 25 这个假设没有数据支持吧。
【在 c**********g 的大作中提到】
: 仔细阅读后的理解是说今年independent大部分投trump，所以trump至今为止占优。并
: 不是因为R投票的人多。这是和以往很不同的。好兆头。
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 26 一张R票相当于4-5张I票啊，情况一点不容乐观
假设R投T:C概率85%:10%, Ind 50%:35%， 1张R=5张I，就是这个意思吧
【在 c**********g 的大作中提到】
: 仔细阅读后的理解是说今年independent大部分投trump，所以trump至今为止占优。并
: 不是因为R投票的人多。这是和以往很不同的。好兆头。
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 27 Politico说2012年早期票R比D多4%，今年多2%不到，原数据我找不到
总体voter registration趋势对R略有利，
2012 D比R多550K, 今年多<300K，差距缩小了250K, 2012年Obama赢了75K，
【在 k******1 的大作中提到】
: 你说的对， 实际上request ballot里R应该比D多很多，2008年的数据是R：51%， D：
: 32%。 （ http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160929/voting-early-record-number-of-florida-voters-request-absentee-ballots ）今年的早期投票情况其实是对Trump不利的。形势还很严峻。
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 28 对的, 能early vote和mail in的最好都行动起来.
有专门的政治学教授和机构研究early vote的demographic.
这些人是热情最高的,
对turnout rate低的地方选举极其重要.
华人想要申张政治主张, 这是一个突破口
pacing
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
: Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
: Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
: Independents is is YUGE.
: Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
: due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
: Independent voters, making this a landslide.
: These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
: people.
: The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 29 没有突发事件的话, 最后的turnout rate和early vote比例有正相关
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: How to interpret the data? I see republicans slightly exceeding democrats
: in early voting ballot request. I can also see Rs were a few hundred Ks
: behind Ds in 2014. Any link to the 2012 election?
:
: pacing
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 30 yes, 最近几届大多是这样.
不过early vote主要不是体现党派倾向, 主要是体现选民热情.
08年小bush haters最积极. 所以那年obama early votes领先很多
【在 j**********r 的大作中提到】
: 提前投票向来都是民主党多。Romney election当天的投票都超过黑8。
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R**********9
发帖数: 1487 | 31 共和党在FL的早票从来没有领先过，因为猪党地面部队一直比较强。寄的票可能和党领
先些。不过今年FL比较特殊，邮寄票史无前例的多，以前的数据不一定适用。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13 |
o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 32 现在早期投票的结果，也没有知道。
【在 R**********9 的大作中提到】
: 共和党在FL的早票从来没有领先过，因为猪党地面部队一直比较强。寄的票可能和党领
: 先些。不过今年FL比较特殊，邮寄票史无前例的多，以前的数据不一定适用。
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13
|
y******0
发帖数: 616 | 33 顶!
pacing
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida mail in ballots are showing a Trump landslide.
: Republican mail in ballots, BOTH sent out and received, in FL are out pacing
: Democrats. More importantly the number of "No Party Affiliation" aka
: Independents is is YUGE.
: Trump broke all the historical records for votes in the primaries largely
: due to bringing in the Independent voters. Trump owns most of the
: Independent voters, making this a landslide.
: These are REAL ballots, not a MSM biased and skewed poll of 500 selected
: people.
: The number of FL mail in ballots received to date is now nearly 800,000.
|
