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USANews版 - 再来Miami-Dade county (猪党票仓)
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专门打脸左逼 -- NevadaLastest battle ground polls
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一些摇摆州early vote return的数据我来打脸左逼的所谓early vote 希婆领先
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: voting话题: hrc话题: trump话题: total话题: votes
1 (共1页)
b***n
发帖数: 13455
1
Stop worrying about FL and enjoy the rally in Tampa today
Latest Miami-Dade Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting as (which
started on 10/24) of 11/4
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
Rep: 91,806
DEM: 108,345
Other: 3,270
No Party Affiliation: 59,736
Total Returned: 263,157
#Trump(Rep): 34.9%
#HRC(Dem): 41.2%
Other: 1.2%
No Party Affiliation: 22.7%
Early Voting (Only)
Rep: 93,253
DEM: 158,462
Other: 4,491
No Party Affiliation: 83,683
Total Voted: 339,889
#Trump(Rep): 27.4%
#HRC(Dem): 46.6%
Other: 1.3%
No Party Affiliation: 24.6%
Early Voting and Mail-in-Ballots Returned
Rep: 185,059
Dem: 266,807
Other: 7,761
No Party Affiliation: 143,419
Total Voted: 603,046
#Trump(Reb): 30.7%
#HRC(Dem): 44.2%
Other: 1.3%
No Party Affiliation: 23.8%
You can track this daily at the following link
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/
AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted
until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump
votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting
historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released a few days ago (taken 10/30)
, 72% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 75% of Republicans are voting
for Trump (THIS IS VERY CONSERVATIVE). 19% of Republicans are voting for HRC
while 21% of Democrats are voting for Trump.
Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) has been breaking for Trump. In
Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/30, Trump has 49% of Independents while HRC
only has 36% of Independents. If we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood
of the tallies above would translate as following in the votes mailed and
early voted so far:
http://20an0w2e66jla4rfm1idisr1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ABC_FL_STATEWIDE-103016.pdf (Link – Axiom Poll as of 10/30)
R – 138,794 (R voting for Trump) + 56,029 (D voting for Trump) + 74,078 (I
& O voting for Trump) = 268,901 Total Votes
D – 192,101 (D voting for HRC) + 35,161 (R voting for HRC) + 54,425 (I & O
voting for HRC) = 281,687 Total Votes
Total Votes for either candidate – 550,588
Total Votes for ALL (which I used to derive the %s below) candidates – 603,
046
Trump = 44.6%
HRC = 46.7%
Margin = 2.1 points for HRC
Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking
into account the following factors:
Gary Johnson – R: 3% D: 1% I: 2%
Someone else – R: 2% R: 2% I: 4%
Undecided – R: 1% D: 4% I: 9%
2012 Presidential Election Results (Link Below)
Barack Obama – 61.58% / Total Votes – 541,440
Mitt Romney – 37.87% / Total Votes – 332,981
Margin = 23.71
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/42008/113201/en/summary.html
Folks please don’t let them tell you we are losing FL or it is close. It is
absolutely BS and listen to SD about keeping our focus on the prize! Barack
keeps wasting his time and our tax dollars in Miami! It isn’t 2012!
i**********k
发帖数: 5274
2
赞分析!
S******8
发帖数: 24594
3
Dade县在最近好几次大选中都起到了关键性作用。
h*******n
发帖数: 8906
4
Wow looks like a landslide win for trump in FL
d********r
发帖数: 9331
5
Miami一直是猪党的大本营,但是对FL的选情没有什么影响。
b***n
发帖数: 13455
6
At current rates Ds will finish early voting with max advantage of 30,000-a
130,000 shortfall from 2012& look to lose FL by 230,000-500,000

【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Stop worrying about FL and enjoy the rally in Tampa today
: Latest Miami-Dade Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting as (which
: started on 10/24) of 11/4
: Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
: Rep: 91,806
: DEM: 108,345
: Other: 3,270
: No Party Affiliation: 59,736
: Total Returned: 263,157
: #Trump(Rep): 34.9%

F*********s
发帖数: 537
7
FL应该无忧了。

a

【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: At current rates Ds will finish early voting with max advantage of 30,000-a
: 130,000 shortfall from 2012& look to lose FL by 230,000-500,000

k******1
发帖数: 1393
8
Broward county 民主党多太多了


: At current rates Ds will finish early voting with max advantage of 30,
000-a

: 130,000 shortfall from 2012

【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: At current rates Ds will finish early voting with max advantage of 30,000-a
: 130,000 shortfall from 2012& look to lose FL by 230,000-500,000

K******S
发帖数: 10109
9
inFL, I4 corridor is the key. thats why they are in Tampa now.

【在 d********r 的大作中提到】
: Miami一直是猪党的大本营,但是对FL的选情没有什么影响。
s**9
发帖数: 207
10
总结一下:目前在Dade County 希拉里领先两点。2012年奥巴马在Dade领先24点,但在
整个FL只是险胜(不到一点?),所以今年创普会大胜。是这样理解么?
z***e
发帖数: 5600
11
是,Obama 2012年在整个佛州只赢了75k票。要按楼主的计算,HRC今年在Miami/Dade一
个县
就流失了130k

【在 s**9 的大作中提到】
: 总结一下:目前在Dade County 希拉里领先两点。2012年奥巴马在Dade领先24点,但在
: 整个FL只是险胜(不到一点?),所以今年创普会大胜。是这样理解么?

1 (共1页)
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专门打脸左逼 -- NevadaLastest battle ground polls
说说这个赫粪吨邮报的希拉里稳胜内华达early voters的结果出来了,希拉里占优
最担心FL与NV,拉美裔投票热情高涨防止作弊,一下这个建议很好:
Trump is projected to win FL by 10%Trump Loses 16,648 Votes in Pennsylvania In the Last Week
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: voting话题: hrc话题: trump话题: total话题: votes