f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 1 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
lifting Hillary Clinton's presidential hopes https://t.co/Y5Wm6TS7gF
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 6, 2016
Early Voting Themes
One of the principal themes seen in the early voting in all three of these
states is the influence of minority voters on the 2016 election. The African
-American vote in these states is going for Hillary Clinton in a big way,
although not in the numbers they voted for Barack Obama.
Black turnout is down, but it's not 'low.' They're voting like nonblack
voters. Half of black midterm vt still left. https://t.co/KIIGJ6Wxqf
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2016
The Hispanic vote is particularly relevant in Florida, North Carolina, and
Nevada, since all have sizable Hispanic populations. Donald Trump has
antagonized Hispanics throughout the country, and these voters are turning
to Hillary Clinton in droves. In fact, early voting results suggest a much
higher Hispanic turnout in this election than in previous ones.
Florida Early Voting Results
As reported by CNN, in Florida early voting a slightly larger number of
Democrats than Republicans have already voted. But even though the early
voting numbers in Florida – 2,268,663 Democrats and 2,261,383 Republicans
– show only a 7,280 vote advantage for Democrats, this is a bit deceptive.
Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
devastating for the Trump campaign.
Donald Trump at NC rally. Early voting results don't look good for Trump.
Donald Trump at NC rally. Early voting results don’t look good for Trump. [
Image by Sean Rayford/Getty Images]
Apart from the early voting results, general 2016 election polls for Florida
show Clinton with a 1-2 point lead over Donald Trump, but — with the early
voting results seen above – these broader polls may be underestimating
Clinton’s support in Florida.
North Carolina Early Voting Results
In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
-point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
more will vote on Election Day.
The New York Times points out in their early voting results tracking that,
while Donald Trump is getting 57 percent of the white vote in North Carolina
, Hillary Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote by 78 percent and the black
vote by 95 percent. These are significant numbers.
Democratic Party volunteers outside early voting site in Asheville, NC
telling people that the FBI email investigation is a GOP conspiracy pic.
twitter.com/pZrF4RHvC3
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 5, 2016
This means that Donald Trump would have to see a staggering and
unprecedented shift in votes on Election Day to have any chance whatsoever
of beating Hillary Clinton in North Carolina. It seems more likely – based
on these numbers – that Clinton will finish 4-5 percentage points ahead of
Donald Trump in this vital battleground state.
Nevada Early Voting Results
Another battleground state where the Hispanic vote seems to be having a very
significant impact in early voting results is Nevada. While some recent
general election polls had indicated Trump was closing in on Clinton in
Nevada, the results of early voting suggest that this might not be the case.
According to some calculations, #Clinton is already leading #Trump by
six per cent in early voting in Nevada
https://t.co/tLREyBytPU
— Haaretz.com (@haaretzcom) November 5, 2016
As reported by ABC News, early voting is particularly high in Hispanic areas
of Nevada like Clark County. Polling places were established in grocery
stores and marketplaces in Hispanic communities, and the lines were
literally around the block. Hours for these polling places had to be
extended to accommodate all of the voters.
Not surprisingly, these early voting results in Nevada among Hispanic voters
indicate that the likelihood of Donald Trump winning this particular
battleground state is much lower than some previous polling had suggested.
Moreover, registered Democrats were twice as likely to be voting in these
areas than registered Republicans. All of this bodes ill for Donald Trump’s
2016 presidential aspirations. |
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 2 http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/early-voting-results-2016-florida-nevada-north-carolina-latest-statistics-clinton-vs-trump-who-leads-is-winning-ahead-ohio-battleground-states-hillary/
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
l*y
发帖数: 21010 | |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | |
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 5 early vote本来就没有定论，你转的是DEM和GOP人数对比。2012年NC的DEM比现在还高6
个百分点，最后是什么结果？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这个遮遮掩掩完全没有information。
: 还是上一篇痛快。在北卡，希拉里赢了9个百分点。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 6 你看不懂英文吗？这里面没提民主党多少人，共和党多少人。这根本不重要。
In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
-point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
more will vote on Election Day.
高6
【在 l***x 的大作中提到】
: early vote本来就没有定论，你转的是DEM和GOP人数对比。2012年NC的DEM比现在还高6
: 个百分点，最后是什么结果？
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 7 北卡independent都快1/3了 就这么赤果果的无视了
还有比较2012年同期的情况 和党有很大进步 黑人投票率下降 白人投票率上升也是事实 |
h******k
发帖数: 15372 | 8 大选结束前early vote和mail-in vote是禁止点票的，除了上帝没有人知道那些票投给
了谁。能知道的信息只有投票人的登记信息。
nine
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你看不懂英文吗？这里面没提民主党多少人，共和党多少人。这根本不重要。
: In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
: reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
: -point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
: people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
: more will vote on Election Day.
:
: 高6
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 9 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成分呢。
事实
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 北卡independent都快1/3了 就这么赤果果的无视了
: 还有比较2012年同期的情况 和党有很大进步 黑人投票率下降 白人投票率上升也是事实
|
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 10 这个9 points哪来的？语焉不详。在我转的文章里面，是这样的数据：
That’s a 9.8 percentage point Democrat early voting edge, but that’s down
more than 6 percentage points from 2012, which was a year Republicans won
the state. Thus, early voting tallies bode well for Trump, who’s pushed the
North Carolina polling to a dead heat in the past week.
nine
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你看不懂英文吗？这里面没提民主党多少人，共和党多少人。这根本不重要。
: In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
: reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
: -point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
: people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
: more will vote on Election Day.
:
: 高6
|
|
|
C*****8
发帖数: 5758 | 11 左逼把早投的票全部拆开来不是已经被抓了吗？这只能说明是左逼一直在作弊，不能接
受这个结果！左逼作弊自己high 去吧，我们支持川普的人民不答应！大不了内战得了
！ |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 12 你知道什么叫tracking poll吗？又不是点票。
【在 h******k 的大作中提到】
: 大选结束前early vote和mail-in vote是禁止点票的，除了上帝没有人知道那些票投给
: 了谁。能知道的信息只有投票人的登记信息。
:
: nine
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 13 你这个poll哪来的？不也一样来路不清么 分析党派选民 turnout主党不可能领先那么
多 2012年罗姆尼早投领先的 和党党主席pribus昨天还跟fox说和党北卡早投领先10万
票 拿下北卡无忧
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成
分呢。
: 事实
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你知道什么叫tracking poll吗？又不是点票。
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 14 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 15 算了不和他争了，现在两边对着bluffing，一天后就知道了，再打脸不迟
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 你这个poll哪来的？不也一样来路不清么 分析党派选民 turnout主党不可能领先那么
: 多 2012年罗姆尼早投领先的 和党党主席pribus昨天还跟fox说和党北卡早投领先10万
: 票 拿下北卡无忧
:
:
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成
: 分呢。
:
: 事实
:
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 16 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
人数有意义吗？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 你这个poll哪来的？不也一样来路不清么 分析党派选民 turnout主党不可能领先那么
: 多 2012年罗姆尼早投领先的 和党党主席pribus昨天还跟fox说和党北卡早投领先10万
: 票 拿下北卡无忧
:
:
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成
: 分呢。
:
: 事实
:
|
z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 17 哈哈，这里的川粉只相信川普赢的民调。其他都是作弊。
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 18 说你法盲文盲你还非要证明一下, early voting还能知道谁领先，fbi请你喝茶了么？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成分呢。
:
: 事实
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 19 来来来，把这牛b的报道给我找来，我好给fbi转去
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 20 又不是点票。都是统计预测。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 说你法盲文盲你还非要证明一下, early voting还能知道谁领先，fbi请你喝茶了么？
|
|
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 21 看主楼新闻链接。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 来来来，把这牛b的报道给我找来，我好给fbi转去
|
a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 22 佛州真要这个数字希婆在任何FL poll里面都应当landslide了。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 23 牛b，你这自己抽完左边抽右边？你前面口口声声说是exit poll，现在变成统计预测。
。。。。。。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 又不是点票。都是统计预测。
|
k**n
发帖数: 3989 | 24 这种不要脸的预测...
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 又不是点票。都是统计预测。
|
c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 25 据说发贴的可信度和使用惊叹号次数成反比。
【在 C*****8 的大作中提到】
: 左逼把早投的票全部拆开来不是已经被抓了吗？这只能说明是左逼一直在作弊，不能接
: 受这个结果！左逼作弊自己high 去吧，我们支持川普的人民不答应！大不了内战得了
: ！
|
a********9
发帖数: 3813 | 26 你这是假消息。 别傻了
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 27 这不是exit poll。但是可以通过voter return information统计数据的。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 牛b，你这自己抽完左边抽右边？你前面口口声声说是exit poll，现在变成统计预测。
: 。。。。。。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 28 Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
devastating for the Trump campaign.
【在 a********9 的大作中提到】
: 你这是假消息。 别傻了
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 29 勉强看了整篇文章，全都是米犹媒体的意淫，没有数据分析。扯淡吧，28%FL共和党选
民投票给老婊子？老婊子在佛罗里达一个几百人的rally都凑不起来，想赢FL？做梦吧
。你先把版上几个有关摇摆州的数据帖看完再说吧。 |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 30 这种事情吧，就是爱信不信。你说voting也是rigged，poll也是rigged，media也是
rigged。再加上conspiracy，逻辑完全成立。
【在 i**********k 的大作中提到】
: 勉强看了整篇文章，全都是米犹媒体的意淫，没有数据分析。扯淡吧，28%FL共和党选
: 民投票给老婊子？老婊子在佛罗里达一个几百人的rally都凑不起来，想赢FL？做梦吧
: 。你先把版上几个有关摇摆州的数据帖看完再说吧。
|
|
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 31 您这好消息cnn报道了么？你们希粉天天嘲笑床粉造谣传谣，回头您这没头没脑的好消
息怎么不给你妈希玛报告一下。如果这是真的，你们希玛还来fl rally各毛阿，这至少
是6:4的landslide
voting
is
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
: for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
: the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
: Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
: confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
: devastating for the Trump campaign.
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 32 报道了。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 您这好消息cnn报道了么？你们希粉天天嘲笑床粉造谣传谣，回头您这没头没脑的好消
: 息怎么不给你妈希玛报告一下。如果这是真的，你们希玛还来fl rally各毛阿，这至少
: 是6:4的landslide
:
: voting
: is
|
s****h
发帖数: 3979 | 33 发现楼主智商惊人啊！
最开始转贴时，明显是以为early vote的结果已经统计出来了，希拉里领先9%。
然后有人和善提醒他/她，说9%只是两党投票比例的差距。并且12年这个差距更大。结
果他/她马上就反应过来了，不知道是秒懂还是做了3分钟分析。马上改口称9%是统计预
测的差距。
学习能力太强了！
最神奇的是上一楼说：
这不是exit poll。但是可以通过voter return information统计数据的。
然后下一楼说：
Early voting polls make it clear that
一层楼之间，几十秒，就学习-消化-整理-转变，能力太强了。 |
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 34 你这28%叫嚣着主流媒体到处都是的 给个link吧 btw 要是和党投主党有那么多人 那主
党投和党的会更多 你当主党都是死人铁仓票么
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共
和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 报道了。
|
c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 35 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
理。
cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
但是川轮是听不进去的。
voting
is
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
: for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
: the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
: Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
: confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
: devastating for the Trump campaign.
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 36 我刚才说的根据党派统计你觉得都无关啊 扯得蛋疼啊 自己都不知道在说什么
: 这不是exit poll。但是可以通过voter return information统计数据的。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 报道了。
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 37 今年黑人都叛党创新高了 只有死人不会变节的
: 希拉里是50年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全
合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言
论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
: voting
: is
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
:
: voting
: is
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 38 ana navarro坚定支持的麦肯差点输掉内裤呢
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
:
: voting
: is
|
s********e
发帖数: 1503 | 39 原来看门狗还痴迷那个ana，这b在电视台上说的pussy比床铺那段视频里说的多得多
：希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
：川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎
常理。
：cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
：有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
：但是川轮是听不进去的。
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
:
: voting
: is
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 40 来来来，快给我看看，我倒要看看cnn都请的什么弱智，这么好的早投数据还把fl做成
battleground,这应该明早8点就project fl了
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 报道了。
|
|
|
m******e
发帖数: 242 | 41 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。 |
C*****8
发帖数: 5758 | 42 左逼没发辩驳了， 扯这个鸡吧蛋！！！！！！！！！
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 据说发贴的可信度和使用惊叹号次数成反比。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 43 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
the critical battleground state of Florida.
The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
But it's not all good news for Democrats: Their current lead is
significantly smaller than the turnout advantage they had over registered
Republicans at this point in 2008.
Clinton and her vice presidential running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, were in
Florida this weekend. Even though Clinton's rally in Pembroke Pines was cut
short Saturday due to heavy rain, she visited two early voting locations
near Miami, and her effort to churn out early voters might be working.
More than 5.7 million Floridians have already hit the polls after about two
weeks of in-person early voting. So far, 2,268,663 Democrats have cast their
ballots and 2,261,383 Republicans have already voted.
These are not results -- ballots aren't tallied until Election Day. But the
numbers provide clues on who is voting and which party is turning out to
vote. And while the numbers track voters' party affiliations, not all
Democrats are voting for Clinton, and not all Republicans are supporting
Trump.
Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout
The GOP lead was carried by strong numbers in absentee voting, and their
overall edge stood at about 16,500 earlier this week. But Democratic turnout
picked up steam, and they're now ahead by a little more than 7,200 votes,
according to the latest numbers from the Florida Department of State.
Democrats slowly chipped away at the Republican advantage, largely thanks to
strong turnout from Hispanic voters. While they are more split in Florida
than in other states, Hispanic voters disproportionately favor Democrats.
And this year, turnout among Hispanics is up about 103% from where it was at
this point in 2008, according to a CNN analysis of early voting data from
Catalist.
CNN has partnered with Catalist, a data company that works with progressive
candidates and advocacy groups, academics and think tanks, to receive
detailed early vote return information this year. Catalist's voter list
connects returned ballots with demographic and registration information,
such as party registration, gender and age, and allows a closer look at who
has already cast a vote in the election.
The huge growth among Hispanics is notable because they are the fastest
growing ethnic group in the Florida electorate right now.
Turnout is up across the board, compared to early voting in 2008. But it
only increased by about 41% among white voters and only about 13% among
black voters.
The relatively small growth in African-American turnout helps explain why
Democrats are behind their early voting pace from 2008, a year when then-Sen
. Barack Obama carried the state by only 3%.
Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 7,200 votes. That pales
in comparison to the roughly 146,000-voter edge they saw at this point in
2008. African-Americans were 16% of the early voting electorate that year,
but they're only about 13% of the electorate so far in 2016. An overwhelming
majority of black voters in Florida are registered with the Democratic
Party.
Doing well in the early vote is absolutely critical in Florida, because a
majority of voters cast early ballots in the past two presidential elections
. This means the candidate behind in the early vote must make up ground on
Election Day to stand a chance at winning Florida's electoral votes.
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 来来来，快给我看看，我倒要看看cnn都请的什么弱智，这么好的早投数据还把fl做成
: battleground,这应该明早8点就project fl了
|
c**********r
发帖数: 169 | 44 No one cares about these BS analysis, especially from Clinton News Network.
You can't think for yourself?
has
would
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
: Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
: edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
: the critical battleground state of Florida.
: The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
: Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
: help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
: But it's not all good news for Democrats: Their current lead is
: significantly smaller than the turnout advantage they had over registered
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 45 对的，我一直说的意思就是这个。现在基本上分成两拨，一拨人相信主流媒体，一拨人
相信social media。我觉得双方很难说服对方。如果不相信cnn，自然没必要相信这些。
【在 c**********r 的大作中提到】
: No one cares about these BS analysis, especially from Clinton News Network.
: You can't think for yourself?
:
: has
: would
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 46 这里有28%转投的bs么？麻烦你给我找找?
has
would
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
: Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
: edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
: the critical battleground state of Florida.
: The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
: Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
: help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
: But it's not all good news for Democrats: Their current lead is
: significantly smaller than the turnout advantage they had over registered
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 47 cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
compared to 2012
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
楼主自掌嘴吧 |
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 48 楼主的嘴正忙着呢，忙着吃屎
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
: compared to 2012
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
: 楼主自掌嘴吧
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 49 好吧，原来你是盯着28%啊。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 这里有28%转投的bs么？麻烦你给我找找?
:
: has
: would
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 50 好吧，床粉的理论就是在election day，床铺能赶上去。这不是还没发生吗？
现在希拉里在北卡领先，这是事实。
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
: compared to 2012
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
: 楼主自掌嘴吧
|
|
|
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 51 辛苦。俺当年和假故事在父母版吵AA就已经受够了丫的胡搅蛮缠了。
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
: compared to 2012
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
: 楼主自掌嘴吧
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 52 就事论事，不要捣乱。
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 辛苦。俺当年和假故事在父母版吵AA就已经受够了丫的胡搅蛮缠了。
|
c**********r
发帖数: 169 | 53 Most of the informed people know CNN is colluding with Hillary and Clinton
crime family, so why you brought these nonsense articles from CNN here?
just for the eyeballs?
些。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 对的，我一直说的意思就是这个。现在基本上分成两拨，一拨人相信主流媒体，一拨人
: 相信social media。我觉得双方很难说服对方。如果不相信cnn，自然没必要相信这些。
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 54 智商感人阿，让你给原文你给这个么野鸡弹幕？你以为我们都是坐船来的么？这个bs本
身就是一个谣言，我老还特别放狗追了upshot原文，他们自己承认这是一个bs，upshot
pollster自己出来澄清的
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793640389030936576
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧，原来你是盯着28%啊。
|
B*******1
发帖数: 179 | 55 博导，坐船一般从哪坐？要多长时间？
upshot
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 智商感人阿，让你给原文你给这个么野鸡弹幕？你以为我们都是坐船来的么？这个bs本
: 身就是一个谣言，我老还特别放狗追了upshot原文，他们自己承认这是一个bs，upshot
: pollster自己出来澄清的
: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793640389030936576
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 56 这跟upshot有什么关系？
这是targetsmart做的poll。
upshot
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 智商感人阿，让你给原文你给这个么野鸡弹幕？你以为我们都是坐船来的么？这个bs本
: 身就是一个谣言，我老还特别放狗追了upshot原文，他们自己承认这是一个bs，upshot
: pollster自己出来澄清的
: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793640389030936576
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 57 蠢货 北卡早投和党领先 佛州才算主党领先 先把基本东西分分清楚再来讲别的
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧，床粉的理论就是在election day，床铺能赶上去。这不是还没发生吗？
: 现在希拉里在北卡领先，这是事实。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 58 我觉得cnn确实有偏向性。但是比各种谣言要好。
【在 c**********r 的大作中提到】
: Most of the informed people know CNN is colluding with Hillary and Clinton
: crime family, so why you brought these nonsense articles from CNN here?
: just for the eyeballs?
:
: 些。
|
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 59 对不起哈，丑事不要再提哈。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 就事论事，不要捣乱。
|
c**********r
发帖数: 169 | 60 are you drunk?
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得cnn确实有偏向性。但是比各种谣言要好。
|
|
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 61 我拿你自家cnn的文给你打脸 你又不认了
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得cnn确实有偏向性。但是比各种谣言要好。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 62 这有什么不认的。确实比12年差一些。但是还是领先啊。
你能确保明天trump就能王八翻身？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 我拿你自家cnn的文给你打脸 你又不认了
|
q**c
发帖数: 53 | 63 少放屁！大家明天踊跃投票，监督检举voter fraud是正题。早点睡觉，投票的时候都
仔细反复检查。加油！ |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 64 你哪只眼睛看到北卡早投共和党领先的？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 蠢货 北卡早投和党领先 佛州才算主党领先 先把基本东西分分清楚再来讲别的
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 65 靠，遁走了？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 蠢货 北卡早投和党领先 佛州才算主党领先 先把基本东西分分清楚再来讲别的
|
D*******r
发帖数: 2323 | |
s******y
发帖数: 28562 | 67
你要挖坟啊？
【在 D*******r 的大作中提到】
: 展览一下还在溜达的希粉，大家要打脸的请排队。
|
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 68 不是了，这叫开颅治脑残。
【在 s******y 的大作中提到】
:
: 你要挖坟啊？
|
p**********g
发帖数: 340 | 69 RE
【在 D*******r 的大作中提到】
: 展览一下还在溜达的希粉，大家要打脸的请排队。
|
R*********0
发帖数: 3242 | 70 靠，遁走了？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 靠，遁走了？
|
|
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 71 呵呵呵。。。
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 不是了，这叫开颅治脑残。
|
d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 72 有奇迹吗？
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 73 别浪费水电了
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 不是了，这叫开颅治脑残。
|
d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 74 靠，遁走了？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 靠，遁走了？
|
P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 75 没见假故事在开新帖？估计8020 铁了心要把本版的右派赶走哈。 |
p****l
发帖数: 489 | |
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
k******0
发帖数: 2438 | |
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 79 你个老太监，有没有把那话儿搁这儿？
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
k******0
发帖数: 2438 | 80 太监，就没有那话儿。“搁这儿”就是逗大家开心
【在 g******t 的大作中提到】
: 你个老太监，有没有把那话儿搁这儿？
:
: country
: exceptions
: and
|
|
|
s*******s
发帖数: 17 | |
R*********0
发帖数: 3242 | |
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
P*A
发帖数: 7996 | 84 哈
【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】
: up
|
t*****n
发帖数: 2578 | 85 pia pia pia
本来以为王五是最大傻逼。现在看来fakestory更傻逼
左逼一个更比一个傻逼 |
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 87 哈哈哈
【在 t*****n 的大作中提到】
: pia pia pia
: 本来以为王五是最大傻逼。现在看来fakestory更傻逼
: 左逼一个更比一个傻逼
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
p****x
发帖数: 1376 | 89 左逼没有最傻，只有更傻
【在 t*****n 的大作中提到】
: pia pia pia
: 本来以为王五是最大傻逼。现在看来fakestory更傻逼
: 左逼一个更比一个傻逼
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 90 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
lifting Hillary Clinton's presidential hopes https://t.co/Y5Wm6TS7gF
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 6, 2016
Early Voting Themes
One of the principal themes seen in the early voting in all three of these
states is the influence of minority voters on the 2016 election. The African
-American vote in these states is going for Hillary Clinton in a big way,
although not in the numbers they voted for Barack Obama.
Black turnout is down, but it's not 'low.' They're voting like nonblack
voters. Half of black midterm vt still left. https://t.co/KIIGJ6Wxqf
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2016
The Hispanic vote is particularly relevant in Florida, North Carolina, and
Nevada, since all have sizable Hispanic populations. Donald Trump has
antagonized Hispanics throughout the country, and these voters are turning
to Hillary Clinton in droves. In fact, early voting results suggest a much
higher Hispanic turnout in this election than in previous ones.
Florida Early Voting Results
As reported by CNN, in Florida early voting a slightly larger number of
Democrats than Republicans have already voted. But even though the early
voting numbers in Florida – 2,268,663 Democrats and 2,261,383 Republicans
– show only a 7,280 vote advantage for Democrats, this is a bit deceptive.
Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
devastating for the Trump campaign.
Donald Trump at NC rally. Early voting results don't look good for Trump.
Donald Trump at NC rally. Early voting results don’t look good for Trump. [
Image by Sean Rayford/Getty Images]
Apart from the early voting results, general 2016 election polls for Florida
show Clinton with a 1-2 point lead over Donald Trump, but — with the early
voting results seen above – these broader polls may be underestimating
Clinton’s support in Florida.
North Carolina Early Voting Results
In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
-point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
more will vote on Election Day.
The New York Times points out in their early voting results tracking that,
while Donald Trump is getting 57 percent of the white vote in North Carolina
, Hillary Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote by 78 percent and the black
vote by 95 percent. These are significant numbers.
Democratic Party volunteers outside early voting site in Asheville, NC
telling people that the FBI email investigation is a GOP conspiracy pic.
twitter.com/pZrF4RHvC3
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 5, 2016
This means that Donald Trump would have to see a staggering and
unprecedented shift in votes on Election Day to have any chance whatsoever
of beating Hillary Clinton in North Carolina. It seems more likely – based
on these numbers – that Clinton will finish 4-5 percentage points ahead of
Donald Trump in this vital battleground state.
Nevada Early Voting Results
Another battleground state where the Hispanic vote seems to be having a very
significant impact in early voting results is Nevada. While some recent
general election polls had indicated Trump was closing in on Clinton in
Nevada, the results of early voting suggest that this might not be the case.
According to some calculations, #Clinton is already leading #Trump by
six per cent in early voting in Nevada
https://t.co/tLREyBytPU
— Haaretz.com (@haaretzcom) November 5, 2016
As reported by ABC News, early voting is particularly high in Hispanic areas
of Nevada like Clark County. Polling places were established in grocery
stores and marketplaces in Hispanic communities, and the lines were
literally around the block. Hours for these polling places had to be
extended to accommodate all of the voters.
Not surprisingly, these early voting results in Nevada among Hispanic voters
indicate that the likelihood of Donald Trump winning this particular
battleground state is much lower than some previous polling had suggested.
Moreover, registered Democrats were twice as likely to be voting in these
areas than registered Republicans. All of this bodes ill for Donald Trump’s
2016 presidential aspirations. |
|
|
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 91 http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/early-voting-results-2016-florida-nevada-north-carolina-latest-statistics-clinton-vs-trump-who-leads-is-winning-ahead-ohio-battleground-states-hillary/
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
l*y
发帖数: 21010 | |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | |
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 94 early vote本来就没有定论，你转的是DEM和GOP人数对比。2012年NC的DEM比现在还高6
个百分点，最后是什么结果？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这个遮遮掩掩完全没有information。
: 还是上一篇痛快。在北卡，希拉里赢了9个百分点。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 95 你看不懂英文吗？这里面没提民主党多少人，共和党多少人。这根本不重要。
In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
-point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
more will vote on Election Day.
高6
【在 l***x 的大作中提到】
: early vote本来就没有定论，你转的是DEM和GOP人数对比。2012年NC的DEM比现在还高6
: 个百分点，最后是什么结果？
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 96 北卡independent都快1/3了 就这么赤果果的无视了
还有比较2012年同期的情况 和党有很大进步 黑人投票率下降 白人投票率上升也是事实 |
h******k
发帖数: 15372 | 97 大选结束前early vote和mail-in vote是禁止点票的，除了上帝没有人知道那些票投给
了谁。能知道的信息只有投票人的登记信息。
nine
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你看不懂英文吗？这里面没提民主党多少人，共和党多少人。这根本不重要。
: In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
: reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
: -point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
: people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
: more will vote on Election Day.
:
: 高6
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 98 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成分呢。
事实
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 北卡independent都快1/3了 就这么赤果果的无视了
: 还有比较2012年同期的情况 和党有很大进步 黑人投票率下降 白人投票率上升也是事实
|
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 99 这个9 points哪来的？语焉不详。在我转的文章里面，是这样的数据：
That’s a 9.8 percentage point Democrat early voting edge, but that’s down
more than 6 percentage points from 2012, which was a year Republicans won
the state. Thus, early voting tallies bode well for Trump, who’s pushed the
North Carolina polling to a dead heat in the past week.
nine
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你看不懂英文吗？这里面没提民主党多少人，共和党多少人。这根本不重要。
: In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly
: reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine
: -point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000
: people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million
: more will vote on Election Day.
:
: 高6
|
C*****8
发帖数: 5758 | 100 左逼把早投的票全部拆开来不是已经被抓了吗？这只能说明是左逼一直在作弊，不能接
受这个结果！左逼作弊自己high 去吧，我们支持川普的人民不答应！大不了内战得了
！ |
|
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 101 你知道什么叫tracking poll吗？又不是点票。
【在 h******k 的大作中提到】
: 大选结束前early vote和mail-in vote是禁止点票的，除了上帝没有人知道那些票投给
: 了谁。能知道的信息只有投票人的登记信息。
:
: nine
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 102 你这个poll哪来的？不也一样来路不清么 分析党派选民 turnout主党不可能领先那么
多 2012年罗姆尼早投领先的 和党党主席pribus昨天还跟fox说和党北卡早投领先10万
票 拿下北卡无忧
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成
分呢。
: 事实
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你知道什么叫tracking poll吗？又不是点票。
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 103 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
l***x
发帖数: 1761 | 104 算了不和他争了，现在两边对着bluffing，一天后就知道了，再打脸不迟
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 你这个poll哪来的？不也一样来路不清么 分析党派选民 turnout主党不可能领先那么
: 多 2012年罗姆尼早投领先的 和党党主席pribus昨天还跟fox说和党北卡早投领先10万
: 票 拿下北卡无忧
:
:
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成
: 分呢。
:
: 事实
:
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 105 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
人数有意义吗？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 你这个poll哪来的？不也一样来路不清么 分析党派选民 turnout主党不可能领先那么
: 多 2012年罗姆尼早投领先的 和党党主席pribus昨天还跟fox说和党北卡早投领先10万
: 票 拿下北卡无忧
:
:
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成
: 分呢。
:
: 事实
:
|
z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 106 哈哈，这里的川粉只相信川普赢的民调。其他都是作弊。
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 107 说你法盲文盲你还非要证明一下, early voting还能知道谁领先，fbi请你喝茶了么？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这个选民成分分析毫无意义。现在ealy vote希拉里领先9个百分点，管你什么成分呢。
:
: 事实
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 108 来来来，把这牛b的报道给我找来，我好给fbi转去
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 109 又不是点票。都是统计预测。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 说你法盲文盲你还非要证明一下, early voting还能知道谁领先，fbi请你喝茶了么？
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 110 看主楼新闻链接。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 来来来，把这牛b的报道给我找来，我好给fbi转去
|
|
|
a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 111 佛州真要这个数字希婆在任何FL poll里面都应当landslide了。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 112 牛b，你这自己抽完左边抽右边？你前面口口声声说是exit poll，现在变成统计预测。
。。。。。。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 又不是点票。都是统计预测。
|
k**n
发帖数: 3989 | 113 这种不要脸的预测...
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 又不是点票。都是统计预测。
|
c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 114 据说发贴的可信度和使用惊叹号次数成反比。
【在 C*****8 的大作中提到】
: 左逼把早投的票全部拆开来不是已经被抓了吗？这只能说明是左逼一直在作弊，不能接
: 受这个结果！左逼作弊自己high 去吧，我们支持川普的人民不答应！大不了内战得了
: ！
|
a********9
发帖数: 3813 | 115 你这是假消息。 别傻了
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 116 这不是exit poll。但是可以通过voter return information统计数据的。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 牛b，你这自己抽完左边抽右边？你前面口口声声说是exit poll，现在变成统计预测。
: 。。。。。。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 117 Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
devastating for the Trump campaign.
【在 a********9 的大作中提到】
: 你这是假消息。 别傻了
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 118 勉强看了整篇文章，全都是米犹媒体的意淫，没有数据分析。扯淡吧，28%FL共和党选
民投票给老婊子？老婊子在佛罗里达一个几百人的rally都凑不起来，想赢FL？做梦吧
。你先把版上几个有关摇摆州的数据帖看完再说吧。 |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 119 这种事情吧，就是爱信不信。你说voting也是rigged，poll也是rigged，media也是
rigged。再加上conspiracy，逻辑完全成立。
【在 i**********k 的大作中提到】
: 勉强看了整篇文章，全都是米犹媒体的意淫，没有数据分析。扯淡吧，28%FL共和党选
: 民投票给老婊子？老婊子在佛罗里达一个几百人的rally都凑不起来，想赢FL？做梦吧
: 。你先把版上几个有关摇摆州的数据帖看完再说吧。
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 120 您这好消息cnn报道了么？你们希粉天天嘲笑床粉造谣传谣，回头您这没头没脑的好消
息怎么不给你妈希玛报告一下。如果这是真的，你们希玛还来fl rally各毛阿，这至少
是6:4的landslide
voting
is
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
: for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
: the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
: Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
: confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
: devastating for the Trump campaign.
|
|
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 121 报道了。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 您这好消息cnn报道了么？你们希粉天天嘲笑床粉造谣传谣，回头您这没头没脑的好消
: 息怎么不给你妈希玛报告一下。如果这是真的，你们希玛还来fl rally各毛阿，这至少
: 是6:4的landslide
:
: voting
: is
|
s****h
发帖数: 3979 | 122 发现楼主智商惊人啊！
最开始转贴时，明显是以为early vote的结果已经统计出来了，希拉里领先9%。
然后有人和善提醒他/她，说9%只是两党投票比例的差距。并且12年这个差距更大。结
果他/她马上就反应过来了，不知道是秒懂还是做了3分钟分析。马上改口称9%是统计预
测的差距。
学习能力太强了！
最神奇的是上一楼说：
这不是exit poll。但是可以通过voter return information统计数据的。
然后下一楼说：
Early voting polls make it clear that
一层楼之间，几十秒，就学习-消化-整理-转变，能力太强了。 |
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 123 你这28%叫嚣着主流媒体到处都是的 给个link吧 btw 要是和党投主党有那么多人 那主
党投和党的会更多 你当主党都是死人铁仓票么
: 在佛罗里达9%的民主党投了trump，28%的共和党投了希拉里。你统计民主党和共
和党的
: 人数有意义吗？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 报道了。
|
c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 124 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
理。
cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
但是川轮是听不进去的。
voting
is
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting
: for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On
: the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of
: Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is
: confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be
: devastating for the Trump campaign.
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 125 我刚才说的根据党派统计你觉得都无关啊 扯得蛋疼啊 自己都不知道在说什么
: 这不是exit poll。但是可以通过voter return information统计数据的。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 报道了。
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 126 今年黑人都叛党创新高了 只有死人不会变节的
: 希拉里是50年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全
合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言
论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
: voting
: is
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
:
: voting
: is
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 127 ana navarro坚定支持的麦肯差点输掉内裤呢
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
:
: voting
: is
|
s********e
发帖数: 1503 | 128 原来看门狗还痴迷那个ana，这b在电视台上说的pussy比床铺那段视频里说的多得多
：希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
：川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎
常理。
：cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
：有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
：但是川轮是听不进去的。
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 希拉里是40年的资深民主党，大部分注册民主党选民再烦她最后也会投她；
: 川普今年绑架了共和党，相当一部分注册共和党很可能就不投他，这个数字完全合乎常
: 理。
: cnn那个ana navarro就是这样的gop代表，她还不是墨西哥人，但是她的反川言论比所
: 有的民主党都狠，更切中要害。
: 但是川轮是听不进去的。
:
: voting
: is
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 129 来来来，快给我看看，我倒要看看cnn都请的什么弱智，这么好的早投数据还把fl做成
battleground,这应该明早8点就project fl了
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 报道了。
|
m******e
发帖数: 242 | 130 说你们这些希粉智商感人，你们每次都要扑出来证明一下。美国人民的party
affiliation就是一团浆糊。很多人18岁第一次注册了以后就没改过。很多人就是公民
宣誓的时候或者18岁第一次注册哪个党派来注册的就注册成哪个党。
我本人作为一个希黑，我认为今年肯定是不是tight race,肯定是一个landslide，因为
所有的pollster都预计turn out会很低，两党都动力不足，结果先在看到的是早投turn
out两位数增长，其中还有20%以上的first-time voter，这肯定说明今年的poll会错
的很离谱，model错了。至于谁大胜我不知道。 |
|
|
C*****8
发帖数: 5758 | 131 左逼没发辩驳了， 扯这个鸡吧蛋！！！！！！！！！
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 据说发贴的可信度和使用惊叹号次数成反比。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 132 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
the critical battleground state of Florida.
The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
But it's not all good news for Democrats: Their current lead is
significantly smaller than the turnout advantage they had over registered
Republicans at this point in 2008.
Clinton and her vice presidential running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, were in
Florida this weekend. Even though Clinton's rally in Pembroke Pines was cut
short Saturday due to heavy rain, she visited two early voting locations
near Miami, and her effort to churn out early voters might be working.
More than 5.7 million Floridians have already hit the polls after about two
weeks of in-person early voting. So far, 2,268,663 Democrats have cast their
ballots and 2,261,383 Republicans have already voted.
These are not results -- ballots aren't tallied until Election Day. But the
numbers provide clues on who is voting and which party is turning out to
vote. And while the numbers track voters' party affiliations, not all
Democrats are voting for Clinton, and not all Republicans are supporting
Trump.
Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout
The GOP lead was carried by strong numbers in absentee voting, and their
overall edge stood at about 16,500 earlier this week. But Democratic turnout
picked up steam, and they're now ahead by a little more than 7,200 votes,
according to the latest numbers from the Florida Department of State.
Democrats slowly chipped away at the Republican advantage, largely thanks to
strong turnout from Hispanic voters. While they are more split in Florida
than in other states, Hispanic voters disproportionately favor Democrats.
And this year, turnout among Hispanics is up about 103% from where it was at
this point in 2008, according to a CNN analysis of early voting data from
Catalist.
CNN has partnered with Catalist, a data company that works with progressive
candidates and advocacy groups, academics and think tanks, to receive
detailed early vote return information this year. Catalist's voter list
connects returned ballots with demographic and registration information,
such as party registration, gender and age, and allows a closer look at who
has already cast a vote in the election.
The huge growth among Hispanics is notable because they are the fastest
growing ethnic group in the Florida electorate right now.
Turnout is up across the board, compared to early voting in 2008. But it
only increased by about 41% among white voters and only about 13% among
black voters.
The relatively small growth in African-American turnout helps explain why
Democrats are behind their early voting pace from 2008, a year when then-Sen
. Barack Obama carried the state by only 3%.
Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 7,200 votes. That pales
in comparison to the roughly 146,000-voter edge they saw at this point in
2008. African-Americans were 16% of the early voting electorate that year,
but they're only about 13% of the electorate so far in 2016. An overwhelming
majority of black voters in Florida are registered with the Democratic
Party.
Doing well in the early vote is absolutely critical in Florida, because a
majority of voters cast early ballots in the past two presidential elections
. This means the candidate behind in the early vote must make up ground on
Election Day to stand a chance at winning Florida's electoral votes.
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 来来来，快给我看看，我倒要看看cnn都请的什么弱智，这么好的早投数据还把fl做成
: battleground,这应该明早8点就project fl了
|
c**********r
发帖数: 169 | 133 No one cares about these BS analysis, especially from Clinton News Network.
You can't think for yourself?
has
would
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
: Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
: edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
: the critical battleground state of Florida.
: The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
: Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
: help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
: But it's not all good news for Democrats: Their current lead is
: significantly smaller than the turnout advantage they had over registered
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 134 对的，我一直说的意思就是这个。现在基本上分成两拨，一拨人相信主流媒体，一拨人
相信social media。我觉得双方很难说服对方。如果不相信cnn，自然没必要相信这些。
【在 c**********r 的大作中提到】
: No one cares about these BS analysis, especially from Clinton News Network.
: You can't think for yourself?
:
: has
: would
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 135 这里有28%转投的bs么？麻烦你给我找找?
has
would
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧。我还是回复你一下吧。
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/florida-early-voting/index.html
: Washington (CNN)With three days before Election Day, Democratic turnout has
: edged ahead of Republicans for the first time since early voting began in
: the critical battleground state of Florida.
: The milestone is a boon to Hillary Clinton's chances of carrying the
: Sunshine State and its 29 electoral votes -- a prize so large that it would
: help her close off most of Donald Trump's paths to victory.
: But it's not all good news for Democrats: Their current lead is
: significantly smaller than the turnout advantage they had over registered
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 136 cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
compared to 2012
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
楼主自掌嘴吧 |
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 137 楼主的嘴正忙着呢，忙着吃屎
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
: compared to 2012
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
: 楼主自掌嘴吧
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 138 好吧，原来你是盯着28%啊。
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 这里有28%转投的bs么？麻烦你给我找找?
:
: has
: would
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 139 好吧，床粉的理论就是在election day，床铺能赶上去。这不是还没发生吗？
现在希拉里在北卡领先，这是事实。
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
: compared to 2012
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
: 楼主自掌嘴吧
|
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 140 辛苦。俺当年和假故事在父母版吵AA就已经受够了丫的胡搅蛮缠了。
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: cnn今天的文 Early voting data suggests Clinton lags in North Carolina
: compared to 2012
: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
: 楼主自掌嘴吧
|
|
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 141 就事论事，不要捣乱。
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 辛苦。俺当年和假故事在父母版吵AA就已经受够了丫的胡搅蛮缠了。
|
c**********r
发帖数: 169 | 142 Most of the informed people know CNN is colluding with Hillary and Clinton
crime family, so why you brought these nonsense articles from CNN here?
just for the eyeballs?
些。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 对的，我一直说的意思就是这个。现在基本上分成两拨，一拨人相信主流媒体，一拨人
: 相信social media。我觉得双方很难说服对方。如果不相信cnn，自然没必要相信这些。
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 143 智商感人阿，让你给原文你给这个么野鸡弹幕？你以为我们都是坐船来的么？这个bs本
身就是一个谣言，我老还特别放狗追了upshot原文，他们自己承认这是一个bs，upshot
pollster自己出来澄清的
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793640389030936576
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧，原来你是盯着28%啊。
|
B*******1
发帖数: 179 | 144 博导，坐船一般从哪坐？要多长时间？
upshot
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 智商感人阿，让你给原文你给这个么野鸡弹幕？你以为我们都是坐船来的么？这个bs本
: 身就是一个谣言，我老还特别放狗追了upshot原文，他们自己承认这是一个bs，upshot
: pollster自己出来澄清的
: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793640389030936576
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 145 这跟upshot有什么关系？
这是targetsmart做的poll。
upshot
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 智商感人阿，让你给原文你给这个么野鸡弹幕？你以为我们都是坐船来的么？这个bs本
: 身就是一个谣言，我老还特别放狗追了upshot原文，他们自己承认这是一个bs，upshot
: pollster自己出来澄清的
: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793640389030936576
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 146 蠢货 北卡早投和党领先 佛州才算主党领先 先把基本东西分分清楚再来讲别的
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 好吧，床粉的理论就是在election day，床铺能赶上去。这不是还没发生吗？
: 现在希拉里在北卡领先，这是事实。
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 147 我觉得cnn确实有偏向性。但是比各种谣言要好。
【在 c**********r 的大作中提到】
: Most of the informed people know CNN is colluding with Hillary and Clinton
: crime family, so why you brought these nonsense articles from CNN here?
: just for the eyeballs?
:
: 些。
|
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 148 对不起哈，丑事不要再提哈。
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 就事论事，不要捣乱。
|
c**********r
发帖数: 169 | 149 are you drunk?
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得cnn确实有偏向性。但是比各种谣言要好。
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 150 我拿你自家cnn的文给你打脸 你又不认了
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得cnn确实有偏向性。但是比各种谣言要好。
|
|
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 151 这有什么不认的。确实比12年差一些。但是还是领先啊。
你能确保明天trump就能王八翻身？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 我拿你自家cnn的文给你打脸 你又不认了
|
q**c
发帖数: 53 | 152 少放屁！大家明天踊跃投票，监督检举voter fraud是正题。早点睡觉，投票的时候都
仔细反复检查。加油！ |
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 153 你哪只眼睛看到北卡早投共和党领先的？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 蠢货 北卡早投和党领先 佛州才算主党领先 先把基本东西分分清楚再来讲别的
|
f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 154 靠，遁走了？
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 蠢货 北卡早投和党领先 佛州才算主党领先 先把基本东西分分清楚再来讲别的
|
D*******r
发帖数: 2323 | 155 展览一下还在溜达的希粉，大家要打脸的请排队。 |
s******y
发帖数: 28562 | 156
你要挖坟啊？
【在 D*******r 的大作中提到】
: 展览一下还在溜达的希粉，大家要打脸的请排队。
|
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 157 不是了，这叫开颅治脑残。
【在 s******y 的大作中提到】
:
: 你要挖坟啊？
|
p**********g
发帖数: 340 | 158 RE
【在 D*******r 的大作中提到】
: 展览一下还在溜达的希粉，大家要打脸的请排队。
|
R*********0
发帖数: 3242 | 159 靠，遁走了？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 靠，遁走了？
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 160 呵呵呵。。。
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 不是了，这叫开颅治脑残。
|
|
|
d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 161 有奇迹吗？
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 162 别浪费水电了
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 不是了，这叫开颅治脑残。
|
d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 163 靠，遁走了？
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 靠，遁走了？
|
P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 164 没见假故事在开新帖？估计8020 铁了心要把本版的右派赶走哈。 |
p****l
发帖数: 489 | |
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
k******0
发帖数: 2438 | |
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 168 你个老太监，有没有把那话儿搁这儿？
country
exceptions
and
【在 f*******y 的大作中提到】
: 简单的讲就是trump在nc，nv，fl这三个州惨败。除非明天有奇迹，否则扳不回来。
: 都有数据，省得你们传粉分析来分析去的。
: http://www.inquisitr.com/3685927/early-voting-results-2016-election-polls-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-in-florida-north-carolina-and-nevada-battleground-states/
: As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country
: are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions
: of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats
: benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and
: Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly
: benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
: Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend,
|
k******0
发帖数: 2438 | 169 太监，就没有那话儿。“搁这儿”就是逗大家开心
【在 g******t 的大作中提到】
: 你个老太监，有没有把那话儿搁这儿？
:
: country
: exceptions
: and
|
s*******s
发帖数: 17 | |
|
|
R*********0
发帖数: 3242 | |
P*A
发帖数: 7996 | 172 哈
【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】
: up
|
t*****n
发帖数: 2578 | 173 pia pia pia
本来以为王五是最大傻逼。现在看来fakestory更傻逼
左逼一个更比一个傻逼 |
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 175 哈哈哈
【在 t*****n 的大作中提到】
: pia pia pia
: 本来以为王五是最大傻逼。现在看来fakestory更傻逼
: 左逼一个更比一个傻逼
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
p****x
发帖数: 1376 | 177 左逼没有最傻，只有更傻
【在 t*****n 的大作中提到】
: pia pia pia
: 本来以为王五是最大傻逼。现在看来fakestory更傻逼
: 左逼一个更比一个傻逼
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | |
k**i
发帖数: 10191 | |
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 180 每只左臂的脸皮下面都有一坨shit，没有例外
【在 k**i 的大作中提到】
: 挖坟打脸，你们太不厚道了。
|
|
|
n******g
发帖数: 17225 | |
