t********8
发帖数: 135 | |
j******d
发帖数: 221 | 2 是啊，现在最担心的就是FL，早投落后10万了，刚才川普在NH的rally上也不明朗情况
，真是让人揪心啊 |
c*******1
发帖数: 460 | 3 佛罗里达主要是古巴拉丁，
【在 t********8 的大作中提到】
: 不会真败给了拉美裔吧
|
M******e
发帖数: 1193 | 4 比12和08年的状况都好。不要担心。
【在 j******d 的大作中提到】
: 是啊，现在最担心的就是FL，早投落后10万了，刚才川普在NH的rally上也不明朗情况
: ，真是让人揪心啊
|
H****t
发帖数: 1367 | 5 床铺那张臭嘴把人都得罪光了，现在想起来LATINO的票了？
【在 t********8 的大作中提到】
: 不会真败给了拉美裔吧
|
j******d
发帖数: 221 | 6 罗姆尼2012年早投落后11万，最后输了7万，现在早投输了10万，很危险，希望在独立
选民中占优势，而且不是严格按照党派投票
: 比12和08年的状况都好。不要担心。
【在 M******e 的大作中提到】
: 比12和08年的状况都好。不要担心。
|
b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 7 Florida Data, Ballots, and Ground Reports: Latino Vote Supports Patrone’
Impact…
Posted on November 7, 2016 by sundance
In any analysis of Florida voting the Latino cultural impact is most often
mis-identified by the media, 2016 is no exception. While the MSM is
correctly identifying an up-swing in Latino Florida early voting, the MSM is
also mistakenly inferring this to be a pro-Clinton narrative.
trump-sarasota-2
Those who live and work within Florida will quickly note there is a wide
cultural disparity amid Hispanic and Latino voters. This is not a
monolithic group. Approximately half of the Latino population in Florida
have an ideology that is specifically favorable to Donald Trump, that is
called the “Patrone’ Effect“: A strong cultural association with a strong
(male) paternal role model.
While it is true culturally the Puerto Rican base is favorable to Hillary
Clinton, the South American and Cuban vote is not analogous. Nor is the
Mexican voting bloc identifiable with either PR, Cuban or South American.
Each group is NOT interchangeable.
It is absurdly common for this reality to be misunderstood by business
interests and the media. Whether this misunderstanding is accidental,
naivete’ or intentionally done for ideological broadcast purposes is
essentially a moot point; the truth is divergent from the MSM presentation.
That said, when looking at Florida analytically the lines between Democrat,
Republican and Independent must be factored within the nature of a “closed
primary” system. This became especially evident this year in Florida as
competency cuts across all ethnic and cultural distinctions.
While Florida is indeed a microcosm of national sentiment via a regional
demographic made up of a similar patchwork to the larger U.S., – Florida,
in the aggregate outlook, is not as fractured as the whole nation when it
comes to voter priorities and importance. The ECONOMY is always the leading
issue in FL, period.
FLEPOREBLOG drills down into the voting data as the early voting comes to a
close.
trump-sarasota-1
(Via FLEPOREBLOG) Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting
as of November 7th 2016: 66,679 more registered Republicans have returned an
Early Mail-in-Ballot as of November 6th
Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
♦ Rep: 1,047,119 (+3,536 from 11/6)
♦ DEM: 980,440 (+6,305 from 11/6)
Other: 64,338 (+305 from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 457,756 (+3,340 from 11/6)
Total Returned: 2,549,653 (+13,486 from 11/6)
#Trump(Rep): 41.1% (same from 11/6)
#HRC(Dem): 38.5% (+0.1 from 11/6)
Other: 2.5% (same from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 18.0% (+0.1% from 11/6)
154,691 (+52,617 from 11/6) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of
11/6 (4.0% Lead up from 2.8% on 11/5 (+1.2%})
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 1,425,312 (+66,028 from 11/6)
♦ DEM: 1,580,003 (+118,645 from 11/6)
Other: 89,988 (+5,366 from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 779,639 (+68,971 from 11/6)
Total Voted: 3,874,942 (+259,010 from 11/6)
#Trump(Rep): 36.8% (-0.8% from 11/6)
#HRC(Dem): 40.8% (+0.4% from 11/6)
Other: 2.3% (same from 11/6)
No Party Affiliation: 20.1% (+0.4% from 11/6)
You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE –
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted
until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump
votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting
historically, that assumption is used.
NEW AXIOM POLL AS OF 11/3: The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released
today (taken 11/3), 83% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 83% of
Republicans are voting for Trump (THIS IS VERY CONSERVATIVE). 12% of
Republicans are voting for HRC while 13% of Democrats are voting for Trump.
Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) have been breaking for Trump. In
Axiom’s most recent poll on 11/3, Trump has 44% of Independents while HRC
only has 41% of Independents (Very conservative but we will roll with it. If
we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood of the tallies above would
translate as following in the votes mailed and early voted so far:
♦ R: 2,052,118 (R voting for Trump) + 332,858 (D voting for Trump) +
612,357 (I & O voting for Trump) = 2,997,333 Total Votes
♦ D: 2,125,168 (D voting for HRC) + 296,692 (R voting for HRC) + 570,
606 (I & O voting for HRC) = 2,992,466 Total Votes
Total Votes for either candidate – 5,989,799
Total Votes for ALL (which I used to derive the %s below) candidates – 6,
424,595
♦ Trump = 46.65%
♦ HRC = 46.58%
Margin = 0.07 for Trump
Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking
into account the following factors:
Gary Johnson – R: 2% D: 0% I: 7%
Someone else – R: 1% D: 1% I: 3%
Undecided – R: 1% D: 3% I: 6%
This is YUGE because Obama won early voting in FL by 5 points in 2012 and
after election night he won the state by less than 1 point. (link)
Folks, based on what we have data wise so far, I can now soundly say that we
will win FL. FLORIDA IS DONE! Republicans in the state of Florida are
traditionalists. They wait for Election Day to vote since many are elderly.
View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter
Follow
Isabel Mascarenas ✔ @IMascarenas
#Trump attracting support from women, millennials and latinos st #Sarasota
rally #wtsp
8:09 AM - 7 Nov 2016
410 410 Retweets 438 438 likes
florida-voter-registration-history-1
From my own perspective, connected to thousands of Florida voters, the “
independent” (non affiliated) voter, as well as from the prior regional
polling conducted earlier in this election cycle, shows at a minimum a 10
point break in favor of Donald Trump.
Summary, yes there are more Hispanic (Floridians don’t like that term)
voters participating in the early Florida voting cycle, but that doesn’t
bode well for Clinton. Cuban-Americans are at least 10 points more
favorable toward Donald Trump. When combined with the difference in
Independent voter support (again 10 points pro-Trump), and added to the Dem
cross-over vote for Trump – the election outcome in Florida gains
perspective.
When all voting is counted, Donald Trump will win Florida by 7 to 10 points.
【在 t********8 的大作中提到】
: 不会真败给了拉美裔吧
|
z***4
发帖数: 111 | |
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 9 独立选民肯定占优势 而且还要考虑cross party line投票的 老床问题不大 当然还是
要严防作弊 主党这10万张票的优势肯定不少作弊出来的
【在 j******d 的大作中提到】
: 罗姆尼2012年早投落后11万，最后输了7万，现在早投输了10万，很危险，希望在独立
: 选民中占优势，而且不是严格按照党派投票
:
:
: 比12和08年的状况都好。不要担心。
:
|
c********g
发帖数: 4587 | 10 这个可以查吧，以前不是发生过FL重新计票的吗
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 独立选民肯定占优势 而且还要考虑cross party line投票的 老床问题不大 当然还是
: 要严防作弊 主党这10万张票的优势肯定不少作弊出来的
|
|
|
M******e
发帖数: 1193 | 11 The Democrats finished early voting with a 1.36 percent advantage. While
this might sound promising, their current lead is significantly smaller than
the turnout advantage they had over registered Republicans at this point in
2008 or 2012. In the 2012 election, the Democrats held a 3.7 percent
advantage in early voting.
【在 j******d 的大作中提到】
: 罗姆尼2012年早投落后11万，最后输了7万，现在早投输了10万，很危险，希望在独立
: 选民中占优势，而且不是严格按照党派投票
:
:
: 比12和08年的状况都好。不要担心。
:
|
t********8
发帖数: 135 | 12 是的，最讨厌他的那张大嘴。
【在 H****t 的大作中提到】
: 床铺那张臭嘴把人都得罪光了，现在想起来LATINO的票了？
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 13 要相信床总实力 北卡早投黑人票拿了22%多 远好于罗姆尼3% 更是超了床铺自家阵营估
计的16-20% 阿米戈还不如黑人？和党一向拿30%左右默默票 LA times的poll是40%+ 我
看好50% |
R**********9
发帖数: 1487 | 14 你这落后10万怎么来的？貌似是75K
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13
【在 j******d 的大作中提到】
: 罗姆尼2012年早投落后11万，最后输了7万，现在早投输了10万，很危险，希望在独立
: 选民中占优势，而且不是严格按照党派投票
:
:
: 比12和08年的状况都好。不要担心。
:
|
N**s
发帖数: 1916 | 15 His big mouth is costing him... |
t********8
发帖数: 135 | 16
这是你一厢情愿的看法，事实上川普拉美裔支持率有没有20%我都怀疑。
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 要相信床总实力 北卡早投黑人票拿了22%多 远好于罗姆尼3% 更是超了床铺自家阵营估
: 计的16-20% 阿米戈还不如黑人？和党一向拿30%左右默默票 LA times的poll是40%+ 我
: 看好50%
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 17 我的数据都有列出处的 你的20%就简单脑门拍出来的？别忘了FL NV床铺都有大量的产
业 酒店赌场雇佣大量默默 不投自家老板难道还自决活路不成 另外NV赌场文化本身就
是偏和党的 床铺在那里根基深厚 很多赌场大佬都是他的朋友 今年NV根本不应该是
battleground
【在 t********8 的大作中提到】
:
: 这是你一厢情愿的看法，事实上川普拉美裔支持率有没有20%我都怀疑。
|
d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 18 当年Peter Wilson 加州Proposition 187的时候，好多GOP也自我安慰拉美人不是铁板
一块，一直到被拉美人X出加州，到现在居然还有人幻想。
古巴拉美裔人口哪有啥增长？今年拉美人在Florida early vote中增加90多万，其中超
过1/3的2012没有投票，难道这些人真认为Trump是救星，所以来投票？ |
R**********9
发帖数: 1487 | 19 古巴、海地人民大多数不会投希婆。FL的西裔跟加州大不一样。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 当年Peter Wilson 加州Proposition 187的时候，好多GOP也自我安慰拉美人不是铁板
: 一块，一直到被拉美人X出加州，到现在居然还有人幻想。
: 古巴拉美裔人口哪有啥增长？今年拉美人在Florida early vote中增加90多万，其中超
: 过1/3的2012没有投票，难道这些人真认为Trump是救星，所以来投票？
|
K******S
发帖数: 10109 | 20 看来你是没在FL住过，尤其是古巴拉美人和老莫就是两个星球来的。看看RUBIO在FL稳
稳的
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 当年Peter Wilson 加州Proposition 187的时候，好多GOP也自我安慰拉美人不是铁板
: 一块，一直到被拉美人X出加州，到现在居然还有人幻想。
: 古巴拉美裔人口哪有啥增长？今年拉美人在Florida early vote中增加90多万，其中超
: 过1/3的2012没有投票，难道这些人真认为Trump是救星，所以来投票？
|
|
|
d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 21 http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112958953.html
差距不会有Mexico大，但是看下面这句,还是GOP里面的古巴裔亿万富翁说的，今年他投
Hillary。
“Our faithful Republican friends have been so attached to the days of Leave
it to Beaver that they have ignored each true friend telling them 'Our
world has changed and we better adjust because this is serious.’ But they
told us, 'we know better, we know best,’ ” Mike Fernandez, a Cuban-
American billionaire and Republican donor from Miami who is supporting
Clinton, wrote in an email Sunday to other Republicans.
【在 R**********9 的大作中提到】
: 古巴、海地人民大多数不会投希婆。FL的西裔跟加州大不一样。
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13
|
t********8
发帖数: 135 | 22 Rubio拉美裔身份另外支持非移大赦跟Trump不一样，没有可比性。
【在 K******S 的大作中提到】
: 看来你是没在FL住过，尤其是古巴拉美人和老莫就是两个星球来的。看看RUBIO在FL稳
: 稳的
|
y*****r
发帖数: 327 | 23 这个分析地有点意思。不过用的poll是倾向GOP的。还有因素没考虑的是从12年到现在
gop和无党派人数大涨而dem的没怎么变。但是early vote仍然dem领先很多，说明dem的
turn out rate高。单纯考虑比例比12年降了没有意义。最后两天超出的都是奥巴和JLo
造势之后，相信是支持希拉里的多。另外看12年的poll基本奥巴都是输的。而今年的
poll希拉里最近不错。fl 这次肯定比较tight。
: Florida Data, Ballots, and Ground Reports: Latino Vote Supports
Patrone’
: Impact…
: Posted on November 7, 2016 by sundance
: In any analysis of Florida voting the Latino cultural impact is most
often
: mis-identified by the media, 2016 is no exception. While the MSM is
: correctly identifying an up-swing in Latino Florida early voting, the
MSM is
: also mistakenly inferring this to be a pro-Clinton narrative.
: trump-sarasota-2
: Those who live and work within Florida will quickly note there is a
wide
: cultural disparity amid Hispanic and Latino voters. This is not a
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Florida Data, Ballots, and Ground Reports: Latino Vote Supports Patrone’
: Impact…
: Posted on November 7, 2016 by sundance
: In any analysis of Florida voting the Latino cultural impact is most often
: mis-identified by the media, 2016 is no exception. While the MSM is
: correctly identifying an up-swing in Latino Florida early voting, the MSM is
: also mistakenly inferring this to be a pro-Clinton narrative.
: trump-sarasota-2
: Those who live and work within Florida will quickly note there is a wide
: cultural disparity amid Hispanic and Latino voters. This is not a
|
m****o
发帖数: 3762 | 24 民主党把非法移民和难民放进来，养选票
可耻
【在 t********8 的大作中提到】
: 不会真败给了拉美裔吧
|
M*******d
发帖数: 300 | 25 Pay back is a bitch, isn't it |
u****q
发帖数: 24345 | 26
属实。
他纯属活该。
能拉Hispanics votes的Cruz到最后也没怎么endorse他。
出来混迟早要还的。
【在 H****t 的大作中提到】
: 床铺那张臭嘴把人都得罪光了，现在想起来LATINO的票了？
|
h******k
发帖数: 15372 | 27 FL的非法移民很少，这个州的latino大部分是古巴人，这部分根据法律天然就变成美国
公民，少部分是墨西哥以南的中南美洲人，这部分人也大都是合法途径来的，因为佛罗
里达和墨西哥没有陆路边界，离墨西哥非常遥远，偷渡的少，最近两年还来了一些波多
黎各人，这些人本来就是美国公民。
【在 m****o 的大作中提到】
: 民主党把非法移民和难民放进来，养选票
: 可耻
|
n****n
发帖数: 568 | 28 I think Trump will lose NV due to the high Latino turnout there. His
comments about Mexican rapist is a disaster. Hope he can win PA, FL and MI.
God bless America.
【在 h******k 的大作中提到】
: FL的非法移民很少，这个州的latino大部分是古巴人，这部分根据法律天然就变成美国
: 公民，少部分是墨西哥以南的中南美洲人，这部分人也大都是合法途径来的，因为佛罗
: 里达和墨西哥没有陆路边界，离墨西哥非常遥远，偷渡的少，最近两年还来了一些波多
: 黎各人，这些人本来就是美国公民。
|
c*******4
发帖数: 1874 | 29 不可能，拉美裔没人投
【在 t********8 的大作中提到】
: 不会真败给了拉美裔吧
|
h***1
发帖数: 2263 | 30 然，除了语言一样，几乎就没一样的，连他妈吃的口味都
大不相同。
【在 K******S 的大作中提到】
: 看来你是没在FL住过，尤其是古巴拉美人和老莫就是两个星球来的。看看RUBIO在FL稳
: 稳的
|
|
|
n****n
发帖数: 568 | 31 No. The turnout is surging these days. It is really not a good news for
Trump.
【在 c*******4 的大作中提到】
: 不可能，拉美裔没人投
|
