z****z
发帖数: 2054 | 1 Corporate America’s biggest worry about incoming President Donald Trump is
that he’ll ignite trade wars with China, Mexico and other big exporters.
His pick for Commerce Secretary, private-equity billionaire Wilbur Ross,
says that’s not going to happen.
“There aren’t going to be trade wars,” Ross told Yahoo Finance the day
after the election. “There are plenty of things that could be done that
would not be the end of the Earth but would help our trade balance.”
On the campaign trail, Trump talked tough about slapping quotas on cheap
imports and punishing China if its currency appeared to be undervalued. If
those things were to happen, it would make imports more expensive for
American consumers, invite similar quotas on American exports and possibly
cause a recession. Hence the worry in US boardrooms.
But Ross, who as Commerce Secretary would lead any trade negotiations,
describes a more benign approach. On Mexico, he points out that the United
States accounts for 80% of Mexican exports, which gives the United States
plenty of leverage to lean on its southern neighbor to buy more American-
made products. “If I’m a guy’s 80% customer, is he going to fight with me
?” Ross says. “No, he’s going to negotiate.”
The goal, he says, wouldn’t be to punish US companies that produce goods in
Mexico, but to reduce America’s $60 billion trade deficit with Mexico.
That can be done two ways: by Mexico exporting less to the United States or
buying more from it. Either could be accomplished, he says, without
dismantling the North American Free Trade Agreement.
The US trade deficit with China is about $335 billion. Ross highlights at
least two ways to lower that. First, persuade China to buy more stuff from
the United States that it currently imports from somewhere else. Example:
energy products, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). “Trump is going to be
promoting LNG and its export,” Ross says. “It wouldn’t be hard for [
China] to buy more LNG from us than from the Gulf countries.” (Tip for
investors: Keep an eye on energy stocks.)
The second thing the United States can do is persuade China to ease its own
limits on imports of American raw materials. “They export to us lots of
apparel and lots of footwear, but they have quotas on American exports of
cotton,” Ross explains. “They could relax those quotas.”
Ross makes it sound easy, but there’s no guarantee trading partners will go
along. If they don’t, that’s where Trump’s stick would replace the
carrot. “If they won’t negotiate,” says Ross, “then it may become
necessary as a negotiating measure to threaten them with as much as a 45%
tariff. That’s not a rash statement. That gives you a flavor for his
negotiating position.” While campaigning, Trump often suggested such
measures as a starting point, but Ross suggests they’d be more of a last
resort.
Trump’s trade policies would generate losers, especially if partners like
China and Mexico bought more American products while reducing purchases from
other countries. Russia sells a lot of gas to China and surely wouldn’t
get muscled aside by the Americans without protest. Many emerging markets
supply Mexico and China as well, and they could suffer from reduced exports,
with negative implications for financial markets. But Trump’s stated goal
is to put America first. We’re starting to see how. | z****z
发帖数: 2054 | 2 对于中国来说, 从长远国家利益的角度出发, 也应该主动地追求更加平衡的贸易路线.
就象Ross说的, 墨西哥80%的出口是到美国的, leverage都在美国这边.
is
【在 z****z 的大作中提到】
: Corporate America’s biggest worry about incoming President Donald Trump is
: that he’ll ignite trade wars with China, Mexico and other big exporters.
: His pick for Commerce Secretary, private-equity billionaire Wilbur Ross,
: says that’s not going to happen.
: “There aren’t going to be trade wars,” Ross told Yahoo Finance the day
: after the election. “There are plenty of things that could be done that
: would not be the end of the Earth but would help our trade balance.”
: On the campaign trail, Trump talked tough about slapping quotas on cheap
: imports and punishing China if its currency appeared to be undervalued. If
: those things were to happen, it would make imports more expensive for
| C*******h
发帖数: 6095 | 3 道理就是这么简单，结果尼马一堆人在那儿恐慌trade war，靠，这得多脑残。。。而
且就算给墨西哥政府100个胆它也不敢得罪美国，这么简单一个道理很多美国人都不懂。
is
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.6
【在 z****z 的大作中提到】
: Corporate America’s biggest worry about incoming President Donald Trump is
: that he’ll ignite trade wars with China, Mexico and other big exporters.
: His pick for Commerce Secretary, private-equity billionaire Wilbur Ross,
: says that’s not going to happen.
: “There aren’t going to be trade wars,” Ross told Yahoo Finance the day
: after the election. “There are plenty of things that could be done that
: would not be the end of the Earth but would help our trade balance.”
: On the campaign trail, Trump talked tough about slapping quotas on cheap
: imports and punishing China if its currency appeared to be undervalued. If
: those things were to happen, it would make imports more expensive for
| z****z
发帖数: 2054 | 4 墨西哥是没有什么讨价还价的资本.
中国自身有点实力, 但长期的贸易不平衡, 也是不可持续的.
懂。
【在 C*******h 的大作中提到】
: 道理就是这么简单，结果尼马一堆人在那儿恐慌trade war，靠，这得多脑残。。。而
: 且就算给墨西哥政府100个胆它也不敢得罪美国，这么简单一个道理很多美国人都不懂。
:
: is
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.6
| D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 5 美国一关门，墨西哥的出口就垮了……
[在 CoolTeeth (小石头) 的大作中提到：]
:道理就是这么简单，结果尼马一堆人在那儿恐慌trade war，靠，这得多脑残。。。而
:且就算给墨西哥政府100个胆它也不敢得罪美国，这么简单一个道理很多美国人都不懂。
:is
:★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.6 | h******k
发帖数: 15372 | 6 卖给加拿大吧，现在都免签了。。。
【在 D**s 的大作中提到】
: 美国一关门，墨西哥的出口就垮了……
: [在 CoolTeeth (小石头) 的大作中提到：]
: :道理就是这么简单，结果尼马一堆人在那儿恐慌trade war，靠，这得多脑残。。。而
: :且就算给墨西哥政府100个胆它也不敢得罪美国，这么简单一个道理很多美国人都不懂。
: :is
: :★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.6
| a********r
发帖数: 4013 | 7 好多干货，对美国本土油气类是大利好，天然气出口在不久前还是明令禁止的，看来
Trump政府将进一步开放出口。出口天然气需要美国新建大量的LNG设施港口，完全符合
促进基建的需求。对于天朝而言，能够从美国进口LNG，替换中东供应商，长远来看绝
对不会是坏事。当然了，这一切真的实现的话，最大输家就是中东，还有新加坡。 | z****z
发帖数: 2054 | 8 Ross自己在energy sector上已经押了宝了, 看来是志在必得:
Wilbur Ross, known for big investments in downtrodden industries, is betting
that the oil and gas slump has dragged on long enough to shake out weaker
players.
His investment firm, WL Ross & Co., has purchased hundreds of millions of
dollars in troubled energy debt in a bid to take control of distressed oil
and gas companies if they are forced to hand over ownership to creditors,
according to people familiar with the matter. The firm sat out the early
innings of the downturn, when other investors pounced on perceived bargains
that continued losing value when oil and gas prices fell further.
WL Ross is angling to swap debt for ownership in Breitburn Energy Partners
LP, which filed for chapter 11 protection in May, and has been buying debt
of Permian Resources LLC, a Texas oil producer founded by late wildcatter
Aubrey McClendon that might ultimately have to hand at least part-ownership
to creditors in a restructuring, said people familiar with the matter.
The slide in oil prices that began two years ago and a resulting spate of
bankruptcies have dragged down the prices of energy-company debt, sometimes
to just pennies on the dollar. Distressed-debt investors such as Mr. Ross
buy the deeply discounted debt but retain bargaining rights on the full face
value in a bankruptcy or debt restructuring.
The strategy can deliver big gains if the companies rebound after slashing
their debt. Mr. Ross used it as he built up steel and coal conglomerates
that he later sold for billions of dollars.
【在 a********r 的大作中提到】
: 好多干货，对美国本土油气类是大利好，天然气出口在不久前还是明令禁止的，看来
: Trump政府将进一步开放出口。出口天然气需要美国新建大量的LNG设施港口，完全符合
: 促进基建的需求。对于天朝而言，能够从美国进口LNG，替换中东供应商，长远来看绝
: 对不会是坏事。当然了，这一切真的实现的话，最大输家就是中东，还有新加坡。
| S*******h
发帖数: 7021 | | s******s
发帖数: 3694 | 10 Made In China，几十年过去了， 大部分产品还是以牺牲环境和老百姓的血汗为代价，
最后钱大多进到了大财团的手中，和美国百姓没有关系，和中国老百姓更没有关系。
相比中国的产品进出口税收政策，美国之前的当权者和大财团全部上绞刑都不为过
五毛逼绝户的还在鼓吹中国产业素质和牛氓程度，简直是猪狗不如。
【在 z****z 的大作中提到】
: 墨西哥是没有什么讨价还价的资本.
: 中国自身有点实力, 但长期的贸易不平衡, 也是不可持续的.
:
: 懂。
| h******k
发帖数: 15372 | 11 奥黑代表的是华尔街大财团的利益，当然是开放市场把工厂都搬到成本低的发展中国家
华尔街大财团的利润才更高。
【在 S*******h 的大作中提到】
: 听起来合情合理，这死奥八过去八年怎不做？
| s******y
发帖数: 28562 | 12 Obama 不care
【在 S*******h 的大作中提到】
: 听起来合情合理，这死奥八过去八年怎不做？
| a********r
发帖数: 4013 | 13 可以发明新#ObanoCare
【在 s******y 的大作中提到】
: Obama 不care
|
|
