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发帖数: 2314 | 1 Granted, no one can predict the future, but here's a summary of some pretty
well-informed opinions about where we're headed. I got most of these from a
recent post on Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/few-house-price-forecasts.html and added a few of my own. One of the things I tried to do was add more balance to the opinions by finding some bulls, but really the only one I could find who was predicting overall price increases without equivocation was Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. Of course, he was also saying it was a great time to buy in 2007, so take that opinion for what it's worth.
Mark Zandi of Moody's: "I don’t think the housing crisis is over. I think
we’re going to see another leg down.”
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: "Our current working assumption
is a 5%-10% drop in home prices through the middle of 2010. ... house prices
and credit quality ... to weigh on the US financial system, the
availability of bank credit, and ultimately the pace of the economic
recovery."
Housing consultant Ivy Zelman on record-high deliquencies: "I’ve been
pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my
view that home prices are going back down."
Calculated Risk's own view: "My view is that house prices might have
bottomed in some non-bubble areas, and also in some low end bubble areas
with high foreclosure rates, however I expect further price decline in many
mid-to-high end bubble areas."
Here's some video on WSJ.com of industry consultant John Burns. His view is
basically that as long as the government keeps up its stimulus, then the RE
market will remain stable. He also calls FHA the "new subprime." http://online.wsj.com/video/why-housing-wont-crater/19F5FD95-148E-4649-B1BD-A96C6C5E8167.html
Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: “While the
improvement in the year-over-year decline is encouraging, high foreclosure
rates and increasing distressed sales are likely to continue to hold prices
down.” Their forecast shows some moderate appreciation for non-distressed
sales. "In year ending September 2010, forecast appreciation for national
home prices — excluding distressed — is 1.1%."
And here's Yun: "We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for
well over a year and home prices appears to be in the early stages of
stabilizing. With expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through
the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the
economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010, but with
wide geographic differences.”
Personally, I've been looking in the mid- to high-end for some time and
believe that market is due for further correction.
Message Edited by PABuyer on 11-20-2009 08:56 AM |
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