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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: XXLBass (大巴司机), 信区: Chinook
标 题: Is an Oversold Rally in the Works? By Peter Prudden
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun May 20 21:46:50 2012, 美东)
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/FB-AA
By Peter Prudden May 18, 2012 4:30 pm
What we have witnessed over the course of the past seven weeks following the
equity markets peak is a delayed reaction in price to the overall
underlying health of the broader market.
From a technical standpoint, our markets peaked in February, yet price
drifted marginally higher. As the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rang the bell on our
target of 1365 +/- 15 basis point handles, we paused. It was not a shorting
opportunity, based upon the persistent bearishness that grew as price moved
higher. But after weeks of basing between our levels, the market set itself
up for a sprint higher into 1420, suggesting but not reaching irrational
exuberance. From that intersection, we saw price decelerate in a downward
spiral by 115 handles, or about 9%.
So we must ask ourselves the one question that is more important than
Facebook's (FB) $104 billion IPO: Are we still in a healthy sustained upward
move, or are we in a state of bearishness that is being masked by love for
Apple (AAPL) or Facebook?
Is our market in a state to handle such a large issuance? Recall that we
topped out on the Carlyle IPO last month. Only Father Time knows this answer
, and as I stressed yesterday in the Buzz & Banter, I might be my own best
contra-indicator. There are many warning signs that suggest something bigger
than we are able to anticipate may in fact be on its way. (See: Dreams of a
Market Downdraft Drifting in the Distance.)
World markets across the board are in free fall. Make no mistake, I, too,
see the oversold conditions and provided a list of reasons recently to
prepare for the forthcoming "bounce." I even went as far as to suggest that
our markets could make all-time new highs based upon said sentiment and
previous presidential election cycles. (See: Why Stocks Can Make New All-
Time Highs.) My assertion is that historically markets "cascade" lower
during moments of an oversold and technically damaged environment, which is
our current state. The NYSE advancing vs. declining issues is at an
inflection point that warrants caution.
Since the start of the week, I have been warning of a widening junk bonds (
JNK) to Treasury ratio, coupled with a rapid expansion of new 52-week lows.
This has superseded every downward market "event." Yesterday, we witnessed a
closing low on the 10-Year Treasury at 1.70%.
This is demonstrating the flight to quality and fear that is prevalent in
investors' minds. I have been opining from the short side of the US Treasury
market since the first quarter began. (See: I Shorted the United States
Treasury Market.) What we are seeing right now is an outlier to why I
suggested caution in the near-term short treasury trade; it is one final
blow-off top to treasuries prior to initiating the great re-allocation trade
out of bonds and into stocks.
The bond market always knows more than the stock market. It is the ultimate
teller of truth. The US dollar is also near a major inflection point. It is
lagging the VIX and TLT breakout and breakdown points I highlighted late
last week as cause for caution. Recent dip-buying and the refusal for
capitulation in anticipation of Wall Street's darling IPO, Facebook, has
created a no-fear buying opportunity predicated upon a bullish bias and
complacency that has become commonplace for weeks.
The stage is set for an oversold rally. Yesterday, we saw over one million
put contracts trade on the SPY (which is 2.5 times average daily volume)
after having traded over 900,000 put contracts the previous day, which was
the second highest in 2012. It's imminent... or is it? The possibility of a
move higher from here is large, but our objectives in managing capital are
protection, preservation, and a responsible return over time. It is with
this notion that we must decipher both sides of the equation to arrive at
the most appropriate answer.
Our markets are attempting to tell us something and my intention is to
present and see both sides. We are stretched and at an extreme moment. We
will break and it can go two ways. | X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 2 这句话什么意思？尤其是supercede这段？调调兄，你擅长data mining，能不能研究一
下jnk之类的etf和spy的比率和股市走势之间的关系？有包子，谢谢！
Since the start of the week, I have been warning of a widening junk bonds (
JNK) to Treasury ratio, coupled with a rapid expansion of new 52-week lows.
This has superseded every downward market "event." | X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | | X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | | t**e
发帖数: 2379 | 5 我也觉得读着很别扭。widening应该是指公司债券较国库券的yield差的更远，并且伴
随国库券yield的新低。就是过去一周jnk暴跌，tlt暴涨。supersede我也觉得很奇怪，
可能我英语不好，我觉得这里面就相当于take place/occur的意思，不像是lead的意思
。我知道你的想法，是不是这里面存在一个债券leading股市的关系，我回头有空检验
一下。你把jnk和spy放在一起看，能看出什么先后关系么？我觉得不太可能。
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: 这句话什么意思？尤其是supercede这段？调调兄，你擅长data mining，能不能研究一
: 下jnk之类的etf和spy的比率和股市走势之间的关系？有包子，谢谢！
: Since the start of the week, I have been warning of a widening junk bonds (
: JNK) to Treasury ratio, coupled with a rapid expansion of new 52-week lows.
: This has superseded every downward market "event."
| X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 6 jnk, spy 去年挺合拍的。最近两天jnk的暴量值得注意。ief周五收红也值得关注。
【在 t**e 的大作中提到】
: 我也觉得读着很别扭。widening应该是指公司债券较国库券的yield差的更远，并且伴
: 随国库券yield的新低。就是过去一周jnk暴跌，tlt暴涨。supersede我也觉得很奇怪，
: 可能我英语不好，我觉得这里面就相当于take place/occur的意思，不像是lead的意思
: 。我知道你的想法，是不是这里面存在一个债券leading股市的关系，我回头有空检验
: 一下。你把jnk和spy放在一起看，能看出什么先后关系么？我觉得不太可能。
| t**e
发帖数: 2379 | 7 好像现在所有的分析都看好这个星期反弹，不是周一就是周二开始。
分歧在于，这次反弹能有多高，能持续多久。
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: jnk, spy 去年挺合拍的。最近两天jnk的暴量值得注意。ief周五收红也值得关注。
| m********a
发帖数: 281 | 8 意思可能是junk bond (riskier ) yield 越来越高， 而 treasury (relatively
safer) yeild 越来越低，这俩者间的yield 差越来越大，说明投资人（smart money)
越来越倾向避险，表明股市有变熊的趋势；这个差值是个很好的指标。
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: 这句话什么意思？尤其是supercede这段？调调兄，你擅长data mining，能不能研究一
: 下jnk之类的etf和spy的比率和股市走势之间的关系？有包子，谢谢！
: Since the start of the week, I have been warning of a widening junk bonds (
: JNK) to Treasury ratio, coupled with a rapid expansion of new 52-week lows.
: This has superseded every downward market "event."
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