c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: cmrhm (beliving is the key), 信区: Chinook
标 题: I begin to short HOV today
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 7 13:59:01 2010, 美东)
here is my trade today:
HOV:
bot 1 May 7.5 call @ 0.2
sell 100 shares @ 6.25
HOV doesn't have call strike on 6, so I just need to pay a little more premium for 7.5 call.
What do u guys think? Make sense?
The reason to short home builder HOV is it rise too much comparing to BAC and other more solid builder like LEN. | c***m
发帖数: 2630 | | p*****0
发帖数: 3104 | 3 相当于bet hov不在6.25和7.7之间了？
and other more solid builder like LEN.
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
| c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 4 no. i bet HOV will drop. if not, the max. loss i will have is 7.75-6.26=1.49
/share. that means 149. the call is for protection.
after i become comfortable with this hedge trading, i can do bigger size
like 500 shares.
【在 p*****0 的大作中提到】
: 相当于bet hov不在6.25和7.7之间了？
:
: and other more solid builder like LEN.
| l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 5 It is the same as buying a ITM put, right? | c****n
发帖数: 1646 | 6 sigh,昨天6.55进了些hov,还高兴以为捞在最低点。
结果中午出去吃了顿饭，回来就变天了，
结果破zecco登陆不进去，今天一早割在6.05. 惨啊。
and other more solid builder like LEN.
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: no. i bet HOV will drop. if not, the max. loss i will have is 7.75-6.26=1.49
: /share. that means 149. the call is for protection.
: after i become comfortable with this hedge trading, i can do bigger size
: like 500 shares.
| c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 7 Not really. Lili.
I use this trade to profit for the potential down but with protection.
HOV price today is 6.25 when i short. let us take ITM put for example:
if I buy May 7.5 put, cost is 1.5, then my cost is 150. so here is the extreme result on May OE:
if HOV up huge say to 10, i will lose 150.
if HOV drop huge like to 4, then i profit 7.5-4-1.5=2, i win 200.
if HOV don't drop that much on May,say to 6, pig, i will lose 7.5-6=1.5, i don't win at all.
Now look at my trading:
If HOV up huge say to 10, max lose for underlying is 150.but i got profit on call: 2.5-0.2=2.3, so total profit is 230-150=80.
if HOV drop huge to 4, i win 6.25-4=2.25, 225 profit
if HOV pig, i lose commission+20, which is not much for either you or me.
see the difference? if HOV drop huge, both methods win. But if HOV up huge, buying call will protect my asset. I will make money on this too.
I must admit, for HOV to get to 10 is impossible in next two weeks. But I just paid 30 dollars for an insurance. I need to test this method in real environment.
Also, I didn't understand those greek terminology yet like gemma, theta. That might explain my strategy too.
If you do naked short, then you properly always set up a stop loss point. Do I get it right?
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: It is the same as buying a ITM put, right?
| c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 8 You didn't lose much.
【在 c****n 的大作中提到】
: sigh,昨天6.55进了些hov,还高兴以为捞在最低点。
: 结果中午出去吃了顿饭，回来就变天了，
: 结果破zecco登陆不进去，今天一早割在6.05. 惨啊。
:
: and other more solid builder like LEN.
| p*****0
发帖数: 3104 | 9 don't understand this part
'
If HOV up huge say to 10, max lose for underlying is 150.but i got profit on
call: 2.5-0.2=2.3, so total profit is 230-150=80.'
your short will lose 375 by shorting at 6.25
did I miss anything?
extreme result on May OE:
i don't win at all.
on call: 2.5-0.2=2.3, so total profit is 230-150=80.
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: Not really. Lili.
: I use this trade to profit for the potential down but with protection.
: HOV price today is 6.25 when i short. let us take ITM put for example:
: if I buy May 7.5 put, cost is 1.5, then my cost is 150. so here is the extreme result on May OE:
: if HOV up huge say to 10, i will lose 150.
: if HOV drop huge like to 4, then i profit 7.5-4-1.5=2, i win 200.
: if HOV don't drop that much on May,say to 6, pig, i will lose 7.5-6=1.5, i don't win at all.
: Now look at my trading:
: If HOV up huge say to 10, max lose for underlying is 150.but i got profit on call: 2.5-0.2=2.3, so total profit is 230-150=80.
: if HOV drop huge to 4, i win 6.25-4=2.25, 225 profit
| c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 10 Thanks for following:
since i have May 7.5 call, i will use it to buy 100 shares of HOV at 7.5.
"no. i bet HOV will drop. if not, the max. loss i will have is 7.75-6.26=1.
49
/share. that means 149. the call is for protection."
note:
149 4舍5入to 150.
7.75= 7.5+0.2
on
【在 p*****0 的大作中提到】
: don't understand this part
: '
: If HOV up huge say to 10, max lose for underlying is 150.but i got profit on
: call: 2.5-0.2=2.3, so total profit is 230-150=80.'
: your short will lose 375 by shorting at 6.25
: did I miss anything?
:
: extreme result on May OE:
: i don't win at all.
: on call: 2.5-0.2=2.3, so total profit is 230-150=80.
| | | c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 11 My short entry isn't good. After reading "how to make money selling stocks
short", I reaslized I made several mistakes:
1.entry point is10-15% of the peak, mine is 22%.
2. 50-day moving average didn't cross below 200-day moving average
3. didn't stop loss after lossing 4%.
4. head & shoulder top formation isn't clear yet. | c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 12 HOV dropped to 6.95 today. still hold the short, i just this it might have a
secondary coming. four days open high and close low.
if secondary is true, then the moving average is useless. | c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 13 Head and shoulder so obvious. my cover entry is 5.45.
a
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: HOV dropped to 6.95 today. still hold the short, i just this it might have a
: secondary coming. four days open high and close low.
: if secondary is true, then the moving average is useless.
| e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 14 赞坚持update.
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: Head and shoulder so obvious. my cover entry is 5.45.
:
: a
| c***m
发帖数: 2630 | | e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 16 你这个support是飞播纳妾线还是根据价量自己看的？
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
| c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 17 "飞播纳妾线" what is it?
I played HOV for almost one year now. Gradually my view for home builder is negative.
recently all the facts just proved my concern. permits down, delinquency
up. employment data. HOV is overvalued, I believe.
"根据价量自己看的" Yes. I did it by my own experience.
YMYD.
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: 你这个support是飞播纳妾线还是根据价量自己看的？
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