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发帖数: 1464 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 bluechips 俱乐部 】
发信人: liliwater (lyrist), 信区: bluechips
标 题: Who Will Profit From The Oil Spill
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 3 19:25:23 2010, 美东)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-who-will-profit-oil-spill
The disaster in the Gulf of Mexico may be the best thing that’s ever
happened to green energy producers in the U.S – but the one that benefits
the most will probably surprise you.
As the damaged Deepwater Horizon well continues to pump out 5,000 barrels of
oil per day into the Gulf, all the major stakeholders are scrambling to
find a way to contain the damage. Investors in BP, Anadarko, Transocean, and
Halliburton have had a rough few weeks and should be nervous about the
future. The growing political firestorm that’s accompanied this ecological
disaster is drastically reshaping the energy landscape in the U.S. There’s
huge money to be made from the biggest structural change to the energy
markets in the past 50 years, if you know where to look.
The political and economic fallout from this accident is starting to take
shape, with the executives from BP, Transocean, and Halliburton being
paraded in front of Congress for a public chastising. Predictably,
politicians are making stern promises of tighter regulations in the future.
At this point, it’s a guessing game as to what the new permanent
regulations will be. So far, a temporary moratorium has been put in place on
the issuance of new offshore oil and gas drilling permits. In addition, the
Department of the Interior plans to restructure the federal Minerals
Management Service (MMS) to eliminate the conflict of interest inherent in
its role of monitoring safety, managing offshore leasing, and collecting
royalty income.
The Department of the Interior has plans to make offshore drilling rig
inspections much stricter. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar has also promised
tighter environmental restrictions for onshore as well as offshore
exploration and production. Lastly, in a knee-jerk reaction to the oil spill
, the Senate Climate Bill gives states the right to veto offshore projects
within 75 miles of shore.
Although these regulatory changes aren’t set in stone yet, it’s a foregone
conclusion that any company involved in offshore drilling will feel some
pain. Any exploration and production company that continues to operate
offshore will face reduced margins from a higher-cost structure from
increased taxes, regulation, and insurance.
Offshore production supplies a large amount of oil and gas to the U.S. The U
.S. Energy Information Agency estimates that U.S. offshore reserves account
for 17% of total U.S. proved reserves for crude oil, condensate, and natural
gas liquids, as the illustration below shows.
Of the total known U.S. offshore reserves, the Gulf of Mexico accounts for
90%, with the rest found in California and Alaska. In 2009, BP produced
nearly a quarter of all the Gulf’s oil and gas located in federal water.
Shell and Chevron produced 12% and 11%, respectively.
The sheer size of offshore reserves guarantees exploration and production
will never be completely abandoned in the U.S., but don’t expect any growth
. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico disaster probably destroyed any hope of any
future drilling in environmentally sensitive areas, like the Arctic National
Wildlife Reserve.
The market has reacted strongly to the spill, punishing the stocks of every
company involved in offshore drilling. Now many are suggesting it might be
an overreaction that could benefit your investment portfolio if you dare buy
in now. However, there are better ways to work this news to your benefit.
The oil spill will be a very expensive setback for all the players involved
in offshore production; we’ve already seen that reflected in their stock
prices. In the near term, offshore exploration and production companies and
the oil services companies will show margin erosion as they digest higher
costs. In the medium term, some companies will pull up stakes and move
completely into non-U.S. offshore projects, as they’ll realize the cost of
doing business in the U.S. outweighs any potential gains.
The market might be overreacting, but we’re not convinced these depressed
stocks represent good value. While it’s possible there are some good
bargains, it’s still too early to consider speculating in any offshore-
related companies. Specifically, the threat of increased regulation, massive
tax increases, and rising insurance costs will create a hostile environment
for these companies going forward.
Instead of risking your capital on so many unknowns, a prudent alternative
is to look at energy producers in the renewable energy sector. The oil spill
has only strengthened the current administration’s resolve to make greener
energies supply a larger chunk of America’s energy needs in lieu of
traditional fossil fuels. Congress is doing its part by giving huge
subsidies to companies in this field.
There are a lot of renewable options that will benefit from the subsidies
and political wrangling, but our current favorite by a long shot is
geothermal power.
Of all the renewables, we think geothermal has the best upside potential.
Based on economics and efficiency alone – unlike wind and solar energy,
geothermal is reliable for round-the-clock generation and is already price
competitive with fossil fuels without any subsidies – geothermal
outperforms competing renewable technologies.
Add the government subsidies on top of the existing good economics and the
pot gets even sweeter in the short term. Once the spill is finally contained
, attention will shift to previously low-key renewables, like geothermal,
and soon after the market will recognize geothermal as the clear winner.
We’ve researched companies up and down the geothermal supply chain and we’
re seeing value in a number of quality companies that we think are poised to
outperform. With the coming flood of money and attention that will be
focused on green energy, you’ll want to move quickly before these bargains
go away |
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