e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 1 美国是在可预见的未来第1。
与景观充满了失败的银行和公司图标下降，并与美国的家庭债务和华盛顿深，写美国的
讣告回来流行。 正如流行的是，中国作为世界经济超级大国的新加冕。
从以美国为首的全球金融危机，世界新秩序的废墟正在形成。 按照流行的观点是，美
国正在下降，而中国正在崛起。
这种共识可能是非驴非马。 是的，有很多与美国错误的经济挑战是艰巨的前国家。 然
而，有很多与美国的权利。 该国具有重要的天赋 - 如果部署和培育正确 - 摆脱经济
衰退比以往任何时候都强大。
美国经济是世界上最大和最富有成效的星球。 比未来3（日本，中国和德国）的最大经
济体的结合只需4.6％的全球人口，为大约三分之一的全球总产量的四分之一，美国占
，创造更多的在一年的产量。 美国经济是3倍，中国的，中国的人均收入只有约10％的
美国的大小
美国制造
美国是一个制造业超级大国，我们仍然在制作材料业务，尽管不断有相反的报告。 我
们不应该等同于美国底特律制造死亡的消亡。 美国在一年内使更多的商品比其他任何
国家，尽管美国在全球制造业产出的份额是在2008年大约17.5％，低于1990年的22.4％
和20.5％，于 1980年。
许多美国制造商已经举行了自己的过去几十年，甚至在面对来自日本的激烈竞争，德国
和中国。 中国在全球制造业的份额急剧增加，在过去几十年，创下2008年17.2％，接
近美国的数量。 然而，中国数字包括采矿及采石业，电力，煤气，供水，除制造和中
国的收益大多是在日本，韩国，墨西哥和其他费用 - 而不是美国
世界上最大的出口国德国，也不是没有中国。 这是美国，尽管每年的贸易赤字和所有
的关于美国没有作出任何规定，世界要购买公司的颤振。
是的，中国是世界上最大的商品出口国。 但是，为什么只计算商品？ 为什么不计算服
务呢？
由于通信费用下降和互联网的普及，全球服务出口增长迅猛，在第一线与美国在过去10
年。 “其他私人服务” - 包括数据处理，会计，医疗服务及电讯 - 美国的出口总额
为2520亿美元的最后一年。 当商品和服务结合在一起，美国的出口比所有其他人，共
计1.5万亿美元，2009年，接近全球总量的10％。 德国为8.5％，排名第二。
投资机会
美国仍是世界上外国直接投资的首选目的地。 共同的假设是，当企业决定投资海外，
中国是第一停靠港。 但是，美国市场的财富是一个重要的吸引外国公司。 累计外商直
接投资从2000年至2009年在中国是六千六百六十○亿美元，只是略多于三分之一的总投
资美国的外国人。
美国的外国直接投资在全球的市场份额为16％跨越，为中国与6％。 关于美国应与外包
对美国内包更聪明的辩论平衡的喧闹的辩论。
美国仍然是世界的技术领导者之一，拥有创新的文化无法比拟的。 美国是在或接近了
排行榜，当谈到科研机构和企业在研究和发展开支，以及仍然是作为生物和纳米技术等
前沿技术的全球领导者。 是的，中国和印度正在迅速提升技术曲线。 两者是更多的科
学家和工程师毕业，每年相对于美国的各种研究，但是，有质疑的质量和毕业生就业能
力。
在一般情况下，中国的高等教育，印度和世界其他许多地方的质量仍然很差。 形成鲜
明对比美国的高等教育体系，在世界上最好的立场。 32个百分之西蒙兹在夸夸雷利世
界大学排名前100所大学 - 包括前10所大学6 - 在美国难怪，那么，在2008-09学年，
美国大学举行记录671616国际学生。 一个在中学后教育的所有国际学生在2007年第五
届来到美国，成为外国学生的首选目的地。
一个资产组合
美国是拥有世界顶尖的全球性品牌。 据研究公司Interbrand的，超过2009年全球最佳
品牌的一半，按品牌价值排名，是美国人。 其它关键优势包括美国的人口增长 - 我们
是一个年轻的国家，相对于欧洲和日本。 尽管所有人都在对美元未来的传言，美元仍
将是世界储备货币，只要我们不破坏它的价值。 据国际货币基金，62全球中央银行储
备拨出％，而2009年第四季度的最新数字分别于美元。 欧元兑美元有27.4％的份额。
美国经济的基础依然坚固。 我们的经济手段来解决我们面前的紧迫问题 - 我们的笨拙
卫生保健系统和长期债务桩需要立即引起注意。 而世界不是停滞不前 - 从喜欢中国，
巴西和印度的竞争威胁是真实的。
华盛顿需要拿出政治意愿，解决当前的挑战，并利用和经济的现有优势建设是一个很好
的开始。 该政策组合应该包括资本投资，措施，推动自由和开放的贸易和投资，以及
更高的教育支出税收优惠政策。
美国是不是一个经济难有起色。 投资者迷恋中国和其他新兴市场应重新考虑。 现在可
能是一个很大的时间去久美。
客座编辑约瑟夫昆兰是在美国信托首席投资策略。
社论版主编托马斯G.唐伦接收电子邮件，邮寄tg.donlan @ barrons.com 。 | e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 2 中文的貌似是翻译机的杰作，还是英文比较方便。
WITH THE LANDSCAPE LITTERED WITH FAILED banks and fallen corporate icons,
and with U.S. households and Washington deep in debt, writing America's
obituary is back in vogue. Just as popular is the coronation of China as the
world's new economic superpower.
From the ashes of the U.S.-led global financial meltdown, a new world order
is in the making. According to popular opinion, America is declining, while
China is rising.
The consensus could be wide of the mark. Yes, there is plenty wrong with the
U.S. The economic challenges before the nation are Herculean. Yet there is
plenty right with America. The country has the critical endowments -- if
deployed and nurtured properly -- to emerge from the recession stronger than
ever.
The U.S. economy is the largest and most productive on the planet. With just
4.6% of the global population, the U.S. accounts for roughly one-quarter of
global output, generating more output in a year than the next three largest
economies (Japan, China and Germany) combined. America's economy is three
times the size of China's; the per capita income of China is only about 10%
of that of the U.S.
Made in the U.S.A.
The United States is a manufacturing superpower; we're still in the business
of making stuff, despite incessant reports to the contrary. We shouldn't
equate the demise of Detroit with the death of U.S. manufacturing. The U.S.
makes more goods in a year than any other country, although America's share
of global manufacturing output was roughly 17.5% in 2008, down from 22.4% in
1990 and about 20.5% in 1980.
Many U.S. manufacturers have held their own the past few decades, even in
the face of stiff competition from Japan, Germany and China. China's share
of global manufacturing has increased sharply over the past decades, hitting
17.2% in 2008, close to the U.S. number. However, the Chinese figure
includes mining and quarrying, and electricity, gas, and water supply, in
addition to manufacturing, and most of China's gains came at the expense of
Japan, South Korea, Mexico and others -- not the U.S.
The largest exporter in the world is neither Germany nor China. It's the U.S
., despite annual trade deficits and all the chatter about U.S. companies
not making anything the world wants to buy.
Yes, China is the largest exporter of goods in the world. But why count only
goods? Why not count services?
Thanks to falling communication costs and the ubiquity of the Internet,
global service exports have soared the past decade, with the United States
in the forefront. U.S. exports of "other private services" -- including data
-processing, accounting, medical services and telecommunications -- totaled
$252 billion last year. When goods and services are combined, U.S. exports
top all others, totaling $1.5 trillion in 2009, or nearly 10% of the global
total. Germany, with 8.5%, ranks second.
Investment Opportunities
The U.S. remains the world's preferred destination for foreign direct
investment. The common assumption is that when firms decide to invest
overseas, China is the first port of call. But the wealth of the U.S. market
is a key attraction to foreign firms. Cumulative foreign direct investment
in China from 2000 to 2009 was $666 billion, just a little more than one-
third the total invested in the U.S. by foreigners.
America's global share of foreign direct investment was 16% in that span,
versus 6% for China. The noisy debate about U.S. outsourcing should be
balanced with a more intelligent debate about U.S. insourcing.
The U.S. remains one of the world's technology leaders, with a culture of
innovation second to none. America is at or near the top of the charts when
it comes to scientific research institutions and corporate spending on
research and development, and remains a global leader in such frontier
technologies as bio- and -nanotechnology. Yes, China and India are rapidly
moving up the technology curve. The two are graduating more scientists and
engineers each year relative to the U.S. Various studies, however, have
questioned the quality and employability of these graduates.
In general, the quality of higher education in China, India and many other
parts of the world remains poor. That stands in stark contrast to America's
system of higher education, the best in the world. Thirty-two percent of the
universities in the Quacquarelli Symonds World University Rankings' top 100
-- including six of the top 10 universities -- are in the U.S. Little
wonder, then, that in the academic year 2008-09, American universities
hosted a record 671,616 international students. One-fifth of all
international students in post-secondary education in 2007 came to the U.S.,
making it the top destination for foreign students.
A Portfolio of Assets
America is home to the world's top global brands. According to the research
firm Interbrand, more than half of the Best Global Brands of 2009, ranked by
brand value, were American. Other critical strengths include America's
expanding population -- we are a youthful nation, relative to Europe and
Japan. Despite all the chatter about the future of the U.S. dollar, the
greenback will remain the world's reserve currency as long as we don't
destroy its value. According to the latest figures from the International
Monetary Fund, 62% of allocated global reserves of central banks in the
fourth quarter of 2009 were held in dollars. The euro had a 27.4% share.
The foundation of the U.S. economy remains sturdy. We have the economic
means to tackle the pressing issues before us -- our unwieldy health-care
system and pile of long-term debt need immediate attention. And the world is
not standing still -- the competitive threats from the likes of China,
Brazil and India are real.
Washington needs to muster the political will to tackle the challenges at
hand, and leveraging and building on the existing strengths of the economy
is a good place to begin. The policy mix should include tax incentives for
capital investment, measures that promote free and open trade and investment
, and higher spending on education.
The U.S. is not an economic clunker. Investors infatuated with China and
other emerging markets should reconsider. Now may be a great time to go long
America.
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: 美国是在可预见的未来第1。
: 与景观充满了失败的银行和公司图标下降，并与美国的家庭债务和华盛顿深，写美国的
: 讣告回来流行。 正如流行的是，中国作为世界经济超级大国的新加冕。
: 从以美国为首的全球金融危机，世界新秩序的废墟正在形成。 按照流行的观点是，美
: 国正在下降，而中国正在崛起。
: 这种共识可能是非驴非马。 是的，有很多与美国错误的经济挑战是艰巨的前国家。 然
: 而，有很多与美国的权利。 该国具有重要的天赋 - 如果部署和培育正确 - 摆脱经济
: 衰退比以往任何时候都强大。
: 美国经济是世界上最大和最富有成效的星球。 比未来3（日本，中国和德国）的最大经
: 济体的结合只需4.6％的全球人口，为大约三分之一的全球总产量的四分之一，美国占
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