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发帖数: 16209 | 1 Ireland to Seek EU-Led Bailout as Lenihan Works to Avert Bank `Collapse'
By Joe Brennan and Stephanie Bodoni - Nov 21, 2010 7:54 AM PT
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Ireland's Finance Minister Brian Lenihan
Ireland's finance minister Brian Lenihan. Photographer: Jock Fistick/
Bloomberg
Ireland's Prime Minister Brian Cowen
Ireland's Prime Minister Brian Cowen arrives at the Convention Centre Dublin
in Dublin. Photographer: Aidan Crawley/Bloomberg
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said Ireland will apply for a bailout as it
sets itself up to be the second euro member to seek a rescue from the
European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
“I will be proposing to my colleagues that they should formally apply for a
program,” Lenihan said in an interview with state broadcaster RTE in
Dublin. “The banks were too big a problem for the country. The key issue
all the time for the government is to ensure that we do not have a collapse
of the banking sector.”
Prime Minister Brian Cowen chairs a cabinet meeting today, and Lenihan
wouldn’t say how much Ireland needs, only that it will “certainly not”
amount to 100 billion euros ($137 billion). European finance ministers will
meet via teleconference starting at 5 p.m. Dublin time to discuss the
procedures to be followed once the formal aid request is made, said an EU
official with direct knowledge of the talks.
An accord “should help reduce tension,” said Julian Callow, London-based
chief European economist at Barclays Capital, who estimates a package of
about 85 billion euros. “There had been growing concerns about systemic
risks from the Irish financial sector and that was linked with the contagion
fears that have been welling up.”
Bank Crisis
Lenihan said Ireland’s banks need a “contingent capital” fund and he
indicated that the state will not be able to borrow in bond markets next
year at current interest rates.
The cost of saving Ireland’s banks threatens a rerun of the Greek debt
crisis that destabilized the euro region earlier this year. Lenders are
reeling from the collapse of the property market in 2008, which resulted in
the biggest contraction of any EU nation. An unprecedented budget deficit --
equaling one-third of economic output this year -- sent bond yields to all-
time highs.
The Irish bailout follows two years of budget cuts that failed to restore
market confidence as the cost of shoring up the financial industry soared.
The price tag may reach 50 billion euros, according to the central bank in
Dublin.
Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland’s second-biggest bank, emphasized the
fragility of the financial system on Nov. 19, reporting a 17 percent decline
in deposits this year. Lenihan said the “first step” will be to stress
test the banks to ensure they have enough capital.
‘Firepower’
Ireland may not fully use any cash it gets from the EU and IMF, Lenihan said
, adding that the package would be a “powerful demonstration of firepower
behind the banks.”
“Some of that amount may be required in terms of capitalizing the banks,”
he said. “That can only be established after detailed stress tests are done
. In relation to the state, I’ve pointed out there’s an annual gap of 19
billion euros,” he said, referring to the gap between government spending
and income.
The Irish turmoil has also reopened tensions about the governance of the
euro region after German Chancellor Angela Merkel last month called for
bondholders to foot more of the bill of European bailouts. Her stance,
criticized European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, sparked a
bond market selloff.
The risk premium on Ireland’s 10-year debt over German bunds, Europe’s
benchmark, widened to 652 basis points on Nov. 11, with the yield reaching a
record 9.1 percent. The spread was at 541 on Nov. 19. In 2007, it cost
Ireland less than Germany to borrow, with the yield on Irish 10-year bonds
77 basis points below the rate on bunds.
‘Clarity’
Irish Environment Minister John Gormley said it “makes sense” for Ireland
to seek aid.
“We need to get clarity around this issue and that’s why Mr. Lenihan is
putting this proposal before cabinet and I’m confident it will be accepted,
” he said in comments broadcast on Sky News. “I believe that the concerns
of people -- the very legitimate concerns out there -- can be allayed.”
Ireland was one of the poorest countries in Europe when it joined the EU in
1973 along with Britain. Even with European subsidies, unemployment in the
mid-1980s averaged 16 percent.
In the 1990s, lured by a 12.5 percent corporate tax, companies such as
Pfizer Inc. and Microsoft Corp. helped Ireland export its way into becoming
the “Celtic Tiger.” The jobless rate sank to 3.9 percent by 2001. In the
decade through 2006, Ireland grew at an average annual rate of about 7
percent, the fastest among euro-area countries.
Implosion
That expansion, together with easy credit, fanned a real- estate bubble.
Home prices almost quadrupled in the decade through 2007. It went
disastrously wrong for Ireland following the 2008 demise of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc ., which turned the slowdown in the property market into an
implosion that engulfed the economy. The ISEQ stock index has plunged 70
percent from its record in 2007.
Irish Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan said total loan losses at the
country’s lenders, including foreign-owned banks, total at least 85 billion
euros, about half of GDP. Residential property prices have dropped 36
percent since 2006, based on an index compiled by Irish Life & Permanent Plc
and the Economic & Social Research Institute in Dublin, requiring the bank
rescue that is emptying government coffers.
“Whatever about the government, we need an immediate announcement on the
banks,” Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin
, said in an interview. “The banks are the most pressing issue now.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Joe Brennan in Dublin at jbrennan29@
bloomberg.net Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels at s*****[email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Fraher in London at
j*****[email protected] | b**********k
发帖数: 1262 | | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 3 下周继续涨
【在 b**********k 的大作中提到】
: 老是错过这种有大event 的股
| b**********k
发帖数: 1262 | 4 那AIB 也应该涨吧？
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: 下周继续涨
| t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 6 好，同等Rally.
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】
: 好啊，鞋子落地，换换嘻嘻过节了
| B*D
发帖数: 481 | | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 8 盘前动态 -- 美股期指小涨
美股期指周一盘前小涨，跟随欧股上扬，因爱尔兰正式申请欧盟金援，可望避免该国的
金融危机向欧陆扩散，带动欧元升值，美元指数下跌。
道琼工业指数期货盘前小涨28点，为11,207点；史坦普500指数期货上涨3.6点，为1,
201.8点；Nasdaq 100指数期货上扬9.75点，为2,143.2点。
爱尔兰周末宣布，他们正式跟欧盟申请纾困，此举为欧盟与国际货币基金(IMF)官员所
乐见，但是目前尚未确定金援形式与规模，当局将在几天内公布纾困方案的细节。
欧洲股市与欧元早盘上涨，但因不确定救援方案的细节，涨幅有限，Stoxx 600指数早
盘中上涨0.3%，欧元上扬0.5%，为1.3737美元。
本周四美国欢度感恩节假日之前，华尔街股市今天开盘可望小涨，但是有些交易商希望
企业财报能振奋人心，包括今天盘後将公布财报的惠普 (HPQ: 报价, 研究资料) ，惠
普第四季每股盈余预期为1.27美元，营收预期为327亿美元。另外，今天开盘前Tyson
Foods Inc. (TSN: 报价, 研究资料) 将公布季报，预期每股盈余57美分。 | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 9 IRE AIB 盘前大跌
U.S.-listed shares of Allied Irish Banks Plc (NYSE:AIB - News) shed 6.5
percent to $1.15, and Bank of Ireland (NYSE:IRE - News) tumbled 19.5 percent
to $2.15 in premarket trade.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-futures-dip-as-rb-573474043
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870424390457563022 |
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