f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 1 Avalon Reports Increase in Indicated Resources in the Nechalacho Rare Earth
Elements Deposit, NWT
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Press Release Source: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. On Thursday January 27, 2011,
4:37 pm EST
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 01/27/11) - Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (TSX:AVL
- News)(AMEX:AVL - News) ("Avalon" or the "Company") is pleased to provide
an update on development work on the Nechalacho Rare Earth Elements ("REE")
deposit, Thor Lake, NWT. In particular, all the data from the 2010 summer
definition drilling program has now been compiled into the deposit block
model and the 43-101 compliant resource estimates have been updated
accordingly (Tables 1a and b). As expected, this resulted in a significant
increase in the proportion of Mineral Resources in the Nechalacho deposit
that can be classified as Indicated.
The updated resource estimate for the key Basal Zone part of the deposit has
resulted in an increase in Indicated Mineral Resources to 57.49 million
tonnes grading 1.56% TREO(1)with 20.72% HREO/TREO using the base case $260
Net Metallurgical Return (NMR) cut-off. This compares with the Indicated
Resources of 20.45 million tonnes grading 1.75% TREO with 23% HREO/TREO
reported for the Basal Zone in the September 2010 update (for the Tardiff
Lakes and West Long Lake areas combined). It should be noted that this
increase will not necessarily influence the decision on production rate,
which will ultimately be determined by sales volumes estimates rather than
resource size.
More significantly, the proportion of Indicated Mineral Resources estimated
at the much higher $600 NMR cut-off, now total 14.67 million tonnes at 2.19%
TREO and 24.68% HREO/TREO. This tonnage is similar to the total Indicated
Mineral Resources estimated for the prefeasibility study at the $260 NMR but
with a 20% higher TREO grade and a 35% higher HREO content. This confirms,
as predicted, that the Basal Zone resource contains high grade sub-zones of
sufficient size and continuity to allow for selective mining at higher cut-
off grades during the early years of production. At the 2,000 tonnes per day
production rate contemplated in the prefeasibility study, this would be
sufficient tonnage, once converted to mining reserves, to support a mine
life of 20 years.
(1)Total Rare Earth Oxides (TREO) refers to the elements lanthanum to
lutetium, plus yttrium, expressed as oxides. See Avalon's website for
conversion factors from elements to oxides. Heavy Rare Earth Oxides (HREO)
refers to the elements europium to lutetium, plus yttrium, expressed as
oxides. Light rare earths (LREO) refers to the elements lanthanum to
samarium, expressed as oxides. HREO/TREO refers to the proportion of heavy
rare earth oxides as a percentage of the total rare earth oxide content of
the rock.
Don Bubar, President and CEO, stated "The definition of high grade sub-zones
for selective mining will certainly have a beneficial effect on the project
economics by increasing revenues during the early years of production. In
addition, the increase in total Indicated Mineral Resources in the Basal
Zone will extend the mine life used in the prefeasibility study financial
model." Further, "The results also confirm the high rate of conversion of
inferred resources to indicated resources, and the excellent internal
continuity of the Basal Zone mineralization."
Total Inferred Mineral Resources for the Upper and Basal Zones combined now
stands at an estimated 226.88 million tonnes grading 1.30% TREO with 14.33%
HREO/TREO compared with 182.56 million tonnes grading 1.40% TREO with 15%
HREO/TREO in the September 2010 resource estimate (Table 1b). This increase
in inferred resources is mainly due to the inclusion of extensions of the
deposit identified from exploration holes located to the southwest of Long
Lake and to the reinterpretation of the upper limit of the Basal Zone.
Avalon's mine plan is concentrated on the Basal Zone, as this portion of the
deposit is generally of higher overall grade, but also has higher levels of
the more valuable heavy rare earths.
Table 1 includes (for comparative purposes) a column for "TREO equivalent %"
which essentially treats the zirconium, niobium and tantalum as if they
were also rare earth elements. TREO equivalent is estimated by calculating a
weighted average NMR per kilogram for the rare earths and the rare metals (
Zr, Nb, Ta) in a given interval, and re-estimating the interval assuming
that all the value was in the rare earths only. The NMR includes the value
attributable to ZrO2, Nb2O5, and Ta2O5 in the rock after metallurgical
recoveries.
Two drill holes from the summer program are not included in the inferred
mineral resources due to the distance from the existing resources. Drill
holes L10-310 and L10-311 are about 500 metres north of the present northern
limit of the Inferred Mineral Resources. Hole L10-310 intercepted Basal
Zone style mineralization averaging1.09% TREO and 25.3% HREO/TREO over 22
metres and L10- 311 intercepted Basal Zone style mineralization averaging 1.
40% TREO and 25% HREO/TREO over 24.75 metres. Assuming continuity, these
holes will have extended the known limits of the Basal Zone some 500 metres
further north.
The detailed results and plan for individual drill holes can be viewed on
the Company's website at http://www.avalonraremetals.com/projects/thor_lake/thor_lake_intro/.
The mineral resource estimates were prepared by Finley Bakker, P. Geo.,
Senior Resource Geologist. Drilling operations are being performed by Foraco
Drilling Ltd. of Yellowknife, NWT under the supervision of J.C. Pedersen, P
.Geo. The Company's Vice-President, Exploration, William Mercer, Ph.D., P.
Geo. (Ont), P. Geol (NWT) is providing overall direction on the project and
monitors the QA/QC on the laboratory analyses. The qualified persons for the
purposes of this news release are Finley Bakker, William Mercer and D.S.
Bubar, P. Geo., President.
The resource estimation procedure employed by Mr. Bakker was similar to that
of Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates for the NI 43-101 compliant
resource disclosed in the Company's News Release dated June 14, 2010. The
base case cut-off grade and metal price assumptions were unchanged while the
composite methodology, estimation method (Inverse Distance Squared), block
size, domains and estimation parameters were essentially the same. Minor
differences in estimation methodology are noted in the footnotes to the
tables below. Readers are referred to the Company's current NI 43-101
technical report entitled "Technical Report on the Thor Lake Project,
Northwest Territories, Canada" dated July 29, 2010, as amended September 21,
2010, which is available on Sedar at www.sedar.com.
Winter Drilling Program Begins
The 2011 winter drill program commenced during the week of January 10th with
mobilization of crews for both drill rigs, one producing HQ and the second
producing very large size PQ core. The PQ drilling is designed to provide
additional bulk sample material for the upcoming metallurgical pilot plant
program, with the objective of collecting a total of 30 tonnes of Basal Zone
ore. An estimated 29,000 metres of definition drilling will be required to
achieve this objective. This drilling will also serve to further upgrade the
confidence level of the Basal Zone resources, including converting a
portion of the Indicated Resources to the "Measured" level of confidence.
Permitting and Community Engagement Progress
The permitting process is progressing steadily and by the end of October,
2010, scoping sessions related to the environmental assessment had been
completed in the communities of Yellowknife, Dettah, Lutsel K'e, Fort
Resolution and Hay River. On November 26, 2010, the Mackenzie Valley
Environmental Impact Review Board ("MVEIRB") submitted its Draft Terms of
Reference ("ToR") with the comment period extended through January 7, 2011.
Avalon is now awaiting MVIERB's Final ToR which will serve as the basis for
the Developers Assessment Report required for the environmental assessment
process.
Since the signing of the Negotiation Agreement with the Yellowknives Dene
First Nation, as disclosed in the Company's News Release dated December 8,
2010, discussions continue toward the completion of an accommodation
agreement (similar to an "Impacts and Benefits" agreement) this year. Avalon
is also in discussions with the other participating aboriginal communities
towards signing similar agreements. Avalon remains committed to maximizing
potential partnership and participation opportunities for the local First
Nations communities through project development and throughout future
operations.
Metallurgical Testing Program Progess
The metallurgical testing program continues with both flotation and
hydrometallurgical testwork underway under the supervision of consulting
metallurgist, John R. Goode, P. Eng. Two pilot plant trials of the flotation
flowsheet have been completed at Xstrata Process Support (XPS) in Sudbury,
Ontario, and the data generated are still being analysed to determine next
steps. Additional bench scale flotation testwork and mineralogical studies
are underway both to further optimize the process and map mineralogical
variability across the Basal Zone part of the deposit. Further flotation
pilot plant tests are planned once the data from the first two pilot plant
runs and bench testwork have been completely evaluated. Bench scale
hydrometallurgical testwork is continuing at SGS Minerals in Lakefield,
Ontario.
Avalon is also evaluating the results from a series of tests relating to
flotation plant tailings disposal. These were done to further assess
environmental impacts and study how the tailings can be utilized as paste
backfill in the mine.
About Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (TSX:AVL - News)(AMEX:AVL - News)
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. is a mineral exploration and development company
focused on rare metals deposits in Canada. Its flagship project, the 100%-
owned Nechalacho Deposit, Thor Lake, NWT, is emerging as one of the largest
undeveloped rare earth elements resources in the world. Its exceptional
enrichment in the more valuable 'heavy' rare earth elements, which are key
to enabling advances in green energy technology and other growing high-tech
applications, is one of the few potential sources of these critical elements
outside of China, currently the source of 95% of world supply. Avalon is
well funded, has no debt and its work programs are progressing steadily.
Social responsibility and environmental stewardship are corporate
cornerstones. Avalon's performance on community engagement in the north
earned it the 2010 PDAC Environmental and Social Responsibility Award.
To find out more about Avalon Rare Metals Inc., please visit our website at
www.avalonraremetals.com. For questions and feedback, please e-mail the
Company at [email protected] or phone William Mercer, Ph.D., P.Geo.,
VP Exploration, at 416-364-4938.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This news release
contains "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the United
States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable
Canadian securities legislation. Statements that are not historical fact are
forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could
cause actual events or results to differ materially from estimated or
anticipated events or results reflected in the forward-looking statements.
Readers can identify forward-looking statements by the use of words such as
"believe", "expects", "will", "intends", "projects", "anticipates", "
estimates", "continues" or similar words or the negative thereof. All
forward-looking statements contained herein reflect management's plans,
estimates, projections and views only as of the date hereof. Such forward-
looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding targets
, estimates and/or assumptions in respect of resources and potential
reserves, and are or may be based on assumptions and/or estimates related to
future economic, market and other conditions. Many factors could cause the
Company's actual results, performance or achievements to be materially
different from any future results, performance, or achievements that may be
expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including, among
others:
-- the estimation or realization of mineral resources;-- recovery rates
and production costs of the rare metals;-- the timing and amount of
estimated future production;-- requirements for additional capital;--
future prices of rare metals and minerals;-- market demand for rare metals
and minerals;-- the reliability of plant operations at production scale;--
energy costs;-- availability of required skilled labour, contractors and
other human resources;-- accidents, labour disputes and other risks of
the mining industry;-- delays in obtaining governmental approvals, permits
or financing or in the completion of development or construction
activities;-- currency exchange rate fluctuations;-- title disputes or
claims limitations on insurance coverage and the timing and possible
outcome of pending litigation; and-- the other factors described in the
Company's annual Management's Discussion and Analysis and Annual
Information Form filed with the applicable securities regulatory
authorities in Canada and available at www.sedar.com.
Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could
cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those
described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that
cause actions, events or results not to be as anticipated, estimated or
intended. There can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or
expectations upon which these forward-looking statements are based will
occur. Most of such factors are beyond the Company's control. The forward-
looking statements contained herein are qualified in their entirety by this
cautionary statement. Readers should not place undue reliance on the forward
-looking statements. The forward looking statements contained herein are
presented for the purpose of assisting investors in understanding the
Company's plans and expectations regarding operations and performance and
may not be appropriate for other purposes.
CAUTIONARY NOTE TO U.S. INVESTORS CONCERNING ESTIMATES OF MEASURED,
INDICATED AND INFERRED MINERAL RESOURCES: This news release uses the terms "
Measured", "Indicated" and "Inferred" Mineral Resources. United States
investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and required by
Canadian regulations, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission
does not recognize them. "Inferred Mineral Resources" have a great amount of
uncertainty as to their existence, and as to their economic and legal
feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred
Mineral Resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian
rules, estimates of Inferred Mineral Resources may not form the basis of
feasibility or other economic studies. United States investors are cautioned
not to assume that all or any part of Measured or Indicated Mineral
Resources will ever be converted into Mineral Reserves. United States
investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an
Inferred Mineral Resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable.
Table 1a: Nechalacho Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources for Basal and
Upper Zones by Net Metal Return ("NMR") Cut-off Value. $260 is the base case
NMR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
- INDICATED-------------------------------- | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 2 Be careful sell on news. | B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 3 Hehe! AVL will have new share offering very soon.
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: Be careful sell on news.
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | 4 Are you sure? Should sell now?
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: Hehe! AVL will have new share offering very soon.
| B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 5 Are you kidding?
【在 f******r 的大作中提到】
: Are you sure? Should sell now?
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 6 You think AVL will follow REE and MCP?
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: Hehe! AVL will have new share offering very soon.
| B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 7 AVL is much better than REE because of its heavy RE if AVL's announcement
is real. However, it is hard for AVL to mine HRE due to poor facility (no
good public electricity, water, and traffic over there) around AVL's
resources. The cost will be huge if they decide to mine.
Now It is safe to keep the AVL stock but not options. I will wait for news
from China. If China keeps her words to cut the quota, AVL will reach $10
soon.
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: You think AVL will follow REE and MCP?
| j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 8 my money is at GWMGF for "REE"
yes, AVL is big and HREE, but it need to raise over 1billion to possible
open the mine in maybe 2015 to 2018.
on other hand, GW only need 30million to re-open to the mine, which they are
fully funded.
GWMGF will be first "HREE" to produce and process HREE.
GWMGF is top pick for SPROTT and JACK LIFTON at "REE" sector for 2011.
GWMGF has the technology MCP looking for, which is downsteaming processing "
REE". This cause MCP give them a buyout offer at 2009, I believe down the
road, MCP will give GWMGF another offer, fair value is exchange rate 10share
GWMGF to 1 shares MCP
even there is no offer, as CEO claim, they will make $180M in 2013, and $
360M in 2015, GWMGF is too cheap to pass away at today's price.
also, BYRON issue GWMGF at target price of 2.25buck at JAN 20, 2011, as they
see all the risk is gone at GW, so upgrade the discount rate from 34% to 14
%, currently only MCP & LYC.ax and GWMGF.pk has discount of 14% from BYRON,
which means those 3company is the real leader of the REE market(but BRYON's
target price is using the "REE" price of 1/3 of today's spot price only,
means GWMGF should worth 6 to 8 if apply today's SPOT price of REE)
Rest of miner, like REE AVL QRM.v, list on, all value at 34% to 50% discount
rate. ON the other hand, a JUNK in my mind.
personally own a very big position.
YMYD
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: AVL is much better than REE because of its heavy RE if AVL's announcement
: is real. However, it is hard for AVL to mine HRE due to poor facility (no
: good public electricity, water, and traffic over there) around AVL's
: resources. The cost will be huge if they decide to mine.
: Now It is safe to keep the AVL stock but not options. I will wait for news
: from China. If China keeps her words to cut the quota, AVL will reach $10
: soon.
| c********g
发帖数: 1106 | 9 多谢分享
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: my money is at GWMGF for "REE"
: yes, AVL is big and HREE, but it need to raise over 1billion to possible
: open the mine in maybe 2015 to 2018.
: on other hand, GW only need 30million to re-open to the mine, which they are
: fully funded.
: GWMGF will be first "HREE" to produce and process HREE.
: GWMGF is top pick for SPROTT and JACK LIFTON at "REE" sector for 2011.
: GWMGF has the technology MCP looking for, which is downsteaming processing "
: REE". This cause MCP give them a buyout offer at 2009, I believe down the
: road, MCP will give GWMGF another offer, fair value is exchange rate 10share
| B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 10 GWMGF looks good. However, GWMGF is in the pink list. Also I don't like
REE stocks without option trading.
possible
they are
processing "
the
10share
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: my money is at GWMGF for "REE"
: yes, AVL is big and HREE, but it need to raise over 1billion to possible
: open the mine in maybe 2015 to 2018.
: on other hand, GW only need 30million to re-open to the mine, which they are
: fully funded.
: GWMGF will be first "HREE" to produce and process HREE.
: GWMGF is top pick for SPROTT and JACK LIFTON at "REE" sector for 2011.
: GWMGF has the technology MCP looking for, which is downsteaming processing "
: REE". This cause MCP give them a buyout offer at 2009, I believe down the
: road, MCP will give GWMGF another offer, fair value is exchange rate 10share
| | | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 11 UP.
The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
diversified set of rare earth holdings. All of their projects are 100% owned
.
The Thor Lake holding is delineated into two separate mines. Nechalacho has
several heavy rare earths such as tantalum, niobium, zirconium, haffnium,
and gallium. The North deposit contains berylium, lithium, gallium and
niobium. Separation Rapids has lithium. Lilypad Lakes has tantalum. Warren
Township has anorthosite and East Kemptville has tin-indium.
Avalon's Thor Lake deposit at Nechalacho had a positive prefeasibility study
done in 2010. The company has invested $27 million Canadian since 2005. The
bankable feasibility is underway and is fully financed. This should be
completed by 2012. This large resource could be quite profitable as it has a
20%-28% heavy earths. Recovery process at bench scale, with pilot plant in
progress. Production start up is planned for 2015.
When comparing the Nechalacho to other areas with large concentrations of
rare earths, we see a very large concentration of the heavy rare earths. Mt.
Weld in Australia, Mountain Pass in USA, and Nolans in Australia all show a
much smaller concentration of heavy rare earth elements. Heavies constitute
22.2% of rare earths in Nechalacho as opposed to the high of 3.13% at
Nolans to the low of .39% at Mountain Pass. Although this gives a limited
comparison, it shows the heavy rare earths are in much more limited supply.
Interestingly there has been a much larger demand for rare earths over the
past few years, and nothing shows it slowing down. At the same time China
has begun to decrease exports. Export quotas will be reduced by 35% in the
first half of this year. There has also been an increase in media coverage
for this group. The REE groups have benefited by posting a 300% increase in
2010. Molycorp (MCP) has done a great job of attracting media coverage and
with is has seen a large jump in share appreciation. Molycorp's magnet alloy
joint venture with Hitachi Metals also added investor interest. The company
also announced expansion plans to 40000 tpa TREO and new equity finance.
Looking at Chinese REE exports from 1990 to 2011, show a decrease in overall
exports, but a very large jump in the value of those exports. It shows
price increases of REEs.
As of January 19th of 2011, MetalPages.com listed the prices of these rare
earths:
Light Rare Earths
Lanthanum Oxide 99% min- $61-$63/kg (Rechargeable Batteries)
Cerium Oxide 99% min- $66-$68/kg (Catalyst, glass, polishing)
Praseodymiun 99% min- $89-$92/kg (magnets, glass colorant)
neodymium 99% min-$89.50-$92.50/kg (magnets, lasers, glass)
samarium 99% min-$54-$55/kg (magnets, lighting, lasers)
Heavy Rare Earths
Europium Oxide 99% min- $620-$640 (TV Colour Phosphors: red)
Terbium Oxide 99% min-$610-$630 (Phosphors: Green, magnets)
Dysprosium Oxide 99% min- $285-$305 (Magnets, Lasers)
Gadolinium Oxide 99% min- $53-$56 (Magnets, Superconductors)
Yttrium Oxide 99.999% min- $72-$77 (Phosphors, Ceramics, Lasers)
Two of the REEs listed are of particular interest. Pricing with respect to
dysprosium and neodymium has been quite bullish since December of 2009.
Dysprosium is up over 300% and neodymium is up approximately 500% over this
time frame. Demand is up significantly with many of the REEs, and this
demand should continue for some time.
Magnets and electric motors or Neo magnets allow for a reduced electric
motor/generator size and weight. This improves motor efficiency. Examples
broken down by amount of REE used are:
Electronics- use small amounts (grams)
Hybrid electric cars- use one to two kilograms
Industrial air conditioners- use on average 500 kg
Wind turbines- use .6-1.0 tonne/MW
MRI machines- use 1-3 tonnes
It is safe to say, that some of the rare earths could see dramatic price
increases. When looking at the cost savings with respect to reduced power
consumption (up to 50%), and decreased size, consumers will be willing to
pay higher prices for these advantages. 30% of these magnets are made from
neodymium metal. Dysprosium and terbium make magnets heat resistant, which
is becoming much more important in automotive applications. Many of the
heavy rare earths are used in energy efficient lighting and display screens.
A good example of production need are wind turbines. GE produces a 4 MW
model that uses 2 to 3 tonnes of neo magnets. GE has additional plans to
begin producing a 10 MW model.
Nechalacho is now the third largest deposit in the world with respect to
niobium. It is used in high strength, low alloy steels. Use of this type of
steel is expected to double in a the next few years. Bridge and ship
building create demand. Niobium is just starting to be used in automobiles
and the weight decrease increases fuel efficiency. $9 of niobium creates
fuel savings of one litre every 100 kilometers.
Most zirconium production comes form zircon sands in Australia and South
Africa. China currently imports zircon sands and is the only producer of
zirconium oxychloride. This is needed to produce Zr rated metal. Consumption
is increasing. It is used in nuclear reactor builds.
The Nechalacho mine will eventually produce 2000 tonnes per day, although it
is expected to initially be a lower rate. Production of 10000 tpa mixed REE
oxides for separation elsewhere. The market captures less than 5% of
estimated 2014 total rare earth oxide global demand. Operating costs are
estimated to be $267 per tonne. Cap ex estimate is $900 million for
Nechalacho.
Currently there are no large scale rare earth separation capabilities
outside of China. Building a 25000 tpa HREE plant would have an estimated
cap ex of C$345 million. Sites are being reviewed for possible build.
The best way to determine if Avalon is a good investment is through
comparison to other companies in the REE market. Avalon (AVL) has a market
cap of 633 million; it has 4.298 million tons of TREO, which values their
rare earth oxide at $147 per tonne. Arafura (ARAFF.PK) had a market cap of $
390 million; it has .84 ton of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at
$464 per ton. Quest Rare MInerals (QSURD.PK) has a market cap of 281 million
; it has 551 million tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $
511 per ton. Rare Element Resources (REE) has a market cap of 502 million;
it has .55 million of tons TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $913
per ton. Molycorp has a market cap of 4.22 billion; it has 1.395 million
tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $3025 per ton. It is
obvious some of these numbers are skewed as Molycorp is in the production/
expansion stage of their business and Avalon is in the development stage,
but this does not change the value of the metal in the ground, and
comparison to pears seems to show they are trading at a discount.
In Summary, REEs are an attractive trade based on the expansion of
technology with the emphasis on renewable energy. Although many of these
stocks are up an exceptional amount, this trade is somewhat like uranium.
They trade very high on the idea that companies will pay much more then
today's prices. An example is their use in steel creating a lighter car. The
$9 of niobium saves a liter of fuel ever 100 km. The savings in one
thousand km in month's driving would more then substantiate a major price
increase of niobium. If investing in the rare earths, Avalon is attractive
from two standpoints. The company has a very high concentration of heavy
rare earths. Since these are more scarce price increases will be more likely
here. Secondly, it seems to be a value when compared to REEs in the ground.
I think any of the names mentioned here are a good trade, until the current
trade ends.
Disclosure: I am long AVL. | t********o
发帖数: 555 | 12 thx
今天还在想要不要出了avl
.
at
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: UP.
: The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
: 2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
: about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
: Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
: Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
: best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
: a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
: over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 13 Avalon Reports Increase in Indicated Resources in the Nechalacho Rare Earth
Elements Deposit, NWT
Share
retweet
EmailPrint..Companies:Avalon Rare Metals, Inc. OrdinaAvalon Rare Metals Inc.
Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
AVL 5.79 0.00
Press Release Source: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. On Thursday January 27, 2011,
4:37 pm EST
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 01/27/11) - Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (TSX:AVL
- News)(AMEX:AVL - News) ("Avalon" or the "Company") is pleased to provide
an update on development work on the Nechalacho Rare Earth Elements ("REE")
deposit, Thor Lake, NWT. In particular, all the data from the 2010 summer
definition drilling program has now been compiled into the deposit block
model and the 43-101 compliant resource estimates have been updated
accordingly (Tables 1a and b). As expected, this resulted in a significant
increase in the proportion of Mineral Resources in the Nechalacho deposit
that can be classified as Indicated.
The updated resource estimate for the key Basal Zone part of the deposit has
resulted in an increase in Indicated Mineral Resources to 57.49 million
tonnes grading 1.56% TREO(1)with 20.72% HREO/TREO using the base case $260
Net Metallurgical Return (NMR) cut-off. This compares with the Indicated
Resources of 20.45 million tonnes grading 1.75% TREO with 23% HREO/TREO
reported for the Basal Zone in the September 2010 update (for the Tardiff
Lakes and West Long Lake areas combined). It should be noted that this
increase will not necessarily influence the decision on production rate,
which will ultimately be determined by sales volumes estimates rather than
resource size.
More significantly, the proportion of Indicated Mineral Resources estimated
at the much higher $600 NMR cut-off, now total 14.67 million tonnes at 2.19%
TREO and 24.68% HREO/TREO. This tonnage is similar to the total Indicated
Mineral Resources estimated for the prefeasibility study at the $260 NMR but
with a 20% higher TREO grade and a 35% higher HREO content. This confirms,
as predicted, that the Basal Zone resource contains high grade sub-zones of
sufficient size and continuity to allow for selective mining at higher cut-
off grades during the early years of production. At the 2,000 tonnes per day
production rate contemplated in the prefeasibility study, this would be
sufficient tonnage, once converted to mining reserves, to support a mine
life of 20 years.
(1)Total Rare Earth Oxides (TREO) refers to the elements lanthanum to
lutetium, plus yttrium, expressed as oxides. See Avalon's website for
conversion factors from elements to oxides. Heavy Rare Earth Oxides (HREO)
refers to the elements europium to lutetium, plus yttrium, expressed as
oxides. Light rare earths (LREO) refers to the elements lanthanum to
samarium, expressed as oxides. HREO/TREO refers to the proportion of heavy
rare earth oxides as a percentage of the total rare earth oxide content of
the rock.
Don Bubar, President and CEO, stated "The definition of high grade sub-zones
for selective mining will certainly have a beneficial effect on the project
economics by increasing revenues during the early years of production. In
addition, the increase in total Indicated Mineral Resources in the Basal
Zone will extend the mine life used in the prefeasibility study financial
model." Further, "The results also confirm the high rate of conversion of
inferred resources to indicated resources, and the excellent internal
continuity of the Basal Zone mineralization."
Total Inferred Mineral Resources for the Upper and Basal Zones combined now
stands at an estimated 226.88 million tonnes grading 1.30% TREO with 14.33%
HREO/TREO compared with 182.56 million tonnes grading 1.40% TREO with 15%
HREO/TREO in the September 2010 resource estimate (Table 1b). This increase
in inferred resources is mainly due to the inclusion of extensions of the
deposit identified from exploration holes located to the southwest of Long
Lake and to the reinterpretation of the upper limit of the Basal Zone.
Avalon's mine plan is concentrated on the Basal Zone, as this portion of the
deposit is generally of higher overall grade, but also has higher levels of
the more valuable heavy rare earths.
Table 1 includes (for comparative purposes) a column for "TREO equivalent %"
which essentially treats the zirconium, niobium and tantalum as if they
were also rare earth elements. TREO equivalent is estimated by calculating a
weighted average NMR per kilogram for the rare earths and the rare metals (
Zr, Nb, Ta) in a given interval, and re-estimating the interval assuming
that all the value was in the rare earths only. The NMR includes the value
attributable to ZrO2, Nb2O5, and Ta2O5 in the rock after metallurgical
recoveries.
Two drill holes from the summer program are not included in the inferred
mineral resources due to the distance from the existing resources. Drill
holes L10-310 and L10-311 are about 500 metres north of the present northern
limit of the Inferred Mineral Resources. Hole L10-310 intercepted Basal
Zone style mineralization averaging1.09% TREO and 25.3% HREO/TREO over 22
metres and L10- 311 intercepted Basal Zone style mineralization averaging 1.
40% TREO and 25% HREO/TREO over 24.75 metres. Assuming continuity, these
holes will have extended the known limits of the Basal Zone some 500 metres
further north.
The detailed results and plan for individual drill holes can be viewed on
the Company's website at http://www.avalonraremetals.com/projects/thor_lake/thor_lake_intro/.
The mineral resource estimates were prepared by Finley Bakker, P. Geo.,
Senior Resource Geologist. Drilling operations are being performed by Foraco
Drilling Ltd. of Yellowknife, NWT under the supervision of J.C. Pedersen, P
.Geo. The Company's Vice-President, Exploration, William Mercer, Ph.D., P.
Geo. (Ont), P. Geol (NWT) is providing overall direction on the project and
monitors the QA/QC on the laboratory analyses. The qualified persons for the
purposes of this news release are Finley Bakker, William Mercer and D.S.
Bubar, P. Geo., President.
The resource estimation procedure employed by Mr. Bakker was similar to that
of Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates for the NI 43-101 compliant
resource disclosed in the Company's News Release dated June 14, 2010. The
base case cut-off grade and metal price assumptions were unchanged while the
composite methodology, estimation method (Inverse Distance Squared), block
size, domains and estimation parameters were essentially the same. Minor
differences in estimation methodology are noted in the footnotes to the
tables below. Readers are referred to the Company's current NI 43-101
technical report entitled "Technical Report on the Thor Lake Project,
Northwest Territories, Canada" dated July 29, 2010, as amended September 21,
2010, which is available on Sedar at www.sedar.com.
Winter Drilling Program Begins
The 2011 winter drill program commenced during the week of January 10th with
mobilization of crews for both drill rigs, one producing HQ and the second
producing very large size PQ core. The PQ drilling is designed to provide
additional bulk sample material for the upcoming metallurgical pilot plant
program, with the objective of collecting a total of 30 tonnes of Basal Zone
ore. An estimated 29,000 metres of definition drilling will be required to
achieve this objective. This drilling will also serve to further upgrade the
confidence level of the Basal Zone resources, including converting a
portion of the Indicated Resources to the "Measured" level of confidence.
Permitting and Community Engagement Progress
The permitting process is progressing steadily and by the end of October,
2010, scoping sessions related to the environmental assessment had been
completed in the communities of Yellowknife, Dettah, Lutsel K'e, Fort
Resolution and Hay River. On November 26, 2010, the Mackenzie Valley
Environmental Impact Review Board ("MVEIRB") submitted its Draft Terms of
Reference ("ToR") with the comment period extended through January 7, 2011.
Avalon is now awaiting MVIERB's Final ToR which will serve as the basis for
the Developers Assessment Report required for the environmental assessment
process.
Since the signing of the Negotiation Agreement with the Yellowknives Dene
First Nation, as disclosed in the Company's News Release dated December 8,
2010, discussions continue toward the completion of an accommodation
agreement (similar to an "Impacts and Benefits" agreement) this year. Avalon
is also in discussions with the other participating aboriginal communities
towards signing similar agreements. Avalon remains committed to maximizing
potential partnership and participation opportunities for the local First
Nations communities through project development and throughout future
operations.
Metallurgical Testing Program Progess
The metallurgical testing program continues with both flotation and
hydrometallurgical testwork underway under the supervision of consulting
metallurgist, John R. Goode, P. Eng. Two pilot plant trials of the flotation
flowsheet have been completed at Xstrata Process Support (XPS) in Sudbury,
Ontario, and the data generated are still being analysed to determine next
steps. Additional bench scale flotation testwork and mineralogical studies
are underway both to further optimize the process and map mineralogical
variability across the Basal Zone part of the deposit. Further flotation
pilot plant tests are planned once the data from the first two pilot plant
runs and bench testwork have been completely evaluated. Bench scale
hydrometallurgical testwork is continuing at SGS Minerals in Lakefield,
Ontario.
Avalon is also evaluating the results from a series of tests relating to
flotation plant tailings disposal. These were done to further assess
environmental impacts and study how the tailings can be utilized as paste
backfill in the mine.
About Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (TSX:AVL - News)(AMEX:AVL - News)
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. is a mineral exploration and development company
focused on rare metals deposits in Canada. Its flagship project, the 100%-
owned Nechalacho Deposit, Thor Lake, NWT, is emerging as one of the largest
undeveloped rare earth elements resources in the world. Its exceptional
enrichment in the more valuable 'heavy' rare earth elements, which are key
to enabling advances in green energy technology and other growing high-tech
applications, is one of the few potential sources of these critical elements
outside of China, currently the source of 95% of world supply. Avalon is
well funded, has no debt and its work programs are progressing steadily.
Social responsibility and environmental stewardship are corporate
cornerstones. Avalon's performance on community engagement in the north
earned it the 2010 PDAC Environmental and Social Responsibility Award.
To find out more about Avalon Rare Metals Inc., please visit our website at
www.avalonraremetals.com. For questions and feedback, please e-mail the
Company at [email protected] or phone William Mercer, Ph.D., P.Geo.,
VP Exploration, at 416-364-4938.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This news release
contains "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the United
States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable
Canadian securities legislation. Statements that are not historical fact are
forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could
cause actual events or results to differ materially from estimated or
anticipated events or results reflected in the forward-looking statements.
Readers can identify forward-looking statements by the use of words such as
"believe", "expects", "will", "intends", "projects", "anticipates", "
estimates", "continues" or similar words or the negative thereof. All
forward-looking statements contained herein reflect management's plans,
estimates, projections and views only as of the date hereof. Such forward-
looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding targets
, estimates and/or assumptions in respect of resources and potential
reserves, and are or may be based on assumptions and/or estimates related to
future economic, market and other conditions. Many factors could cause the
Company's actual results, performance or achievements to be materially
different from any future results, performance, or achievements that may be
expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including, among
others:
-- the estimation or realization of mineral resources;-- recovery rates
and production costs of the rare metals;-- the timing and amount of
estimated future production;-- requirements for additional capital;--
future prices of rare metals and minerals;-- market demand for rare metals
and minerals;-- the reliability of plant operations at production scale;--
energy costs;-- availability of required skilled labour, contractors and
other human resources;-- accidents, labour disputes and other risks of
the mining industry;-- delays in obtaining governmental approvals, permits
or financing or in the completion of development or construction
activities;-- currency exchange rate fluctuations;-- title disputes or
claims limitations on insurance coverage and the timing and possible
outcome of pending litigation; and-- the other factors described in the
Company's annual Management's Discussion and Analysis and Annual
Information Form filed with the applicable securities regulatory
authorities in Canada and available at www.sedar.com.
Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could
cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those
described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that
cause actions, events or results not to be as anticipated, estimated or
intended. There can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or
expectations upon which these forward-looking statements are based will
occur. Most of such factors are beyond the Company's control. The forward-
looking statements contained herein are qualified in their entirety by this
cautionary statement. Readers should not place undue reliance on the forward
-looking statements. The forward looking statements contained herein are
presented for the purpose of assisting investors in understanding the
Company's plans and expectations regarding operations and performance and
may not be appropriate for other purposes.
CAUTIONARY NOTE TO U.S. INVESTORS CONCERNING ESTIMATES OF MEASURED,
INDICATED AND INFERRED MINERAL RESOURCES: This news release uses the terms "
Measured", "Indicated" and "Inferred" Mineral Resources. United States
investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and required by
Canadian regulations, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission
does not recognize them. "Inferred Mineral Resources" have a great amount of
uncertainty as to their existence, and as to their economic and legal
feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred
Mineral Resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian
rules, estimates of Inferred Mineral Resources may not form the basis of
feasibility or other economic studies. United States investors are cautioned
not to assume that all or any part of Measured or Indicated Mineral
Resources will ever be converted into Mineral Reserves. United States
investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an
Inferred Mineral Resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable.
Table 1a: Nechalacho Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources for Basal and
Upper Zones by Net Metal Return ("NMR") Cut-off Value. $260 is the base case
NMR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
- INDICATED--------------------------------
-------------------------------------------- ZONE NMR Tonnes TREO
HREO HREO/TREO ZrO2 Nb2O5 Ta2O5 TREO CUTOFF (millions) %
% % % % ppm equiv--------------------------------
--------------------------------------------BASAL greater than or
equal to $260 57.49 1.56 0.33 20.72 2.99 0.40 396
2.01---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------BASAL greater than or equal to $400 39.79 1.77
0.39 22.15 3.41 0.45 448 2.28------------------------------
----------------------------------------------BASAL greater than or
equal to $600 14.67 2.19 0.54 24.68 4.22 0.53
552 2.80------------------------------------------------------------------
----------BASAL greater than or equal to $700 7.26 2
.43 0.62 25.97 4.64 0.58 621 3.10---------------------------
-------------------------------------------------
- ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------UPPER greater than or equal
to $260 30.64 1.48 0.15 10.26 2.10 0.31 192 1.86--
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPPER greater than or equal to $400 6.25 2.20 0.21
10.38 2.95 0.40 243 2.73-------------------------------------
---------------------------------------UPPER greater than or
equal to $600 0.61 4.31 0.36 9.47 3.87 0.51 286
5.06-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----UPPER greater than or equal to $700 0.27 6.11
0.45 8.06 3.93 0.52 260 6.92--------------------------------
--------------------------------------------
- -----------------------------------------------
------------------------------TOTAL greater than or equal
to $260 88.13 1.53 0.26 17.08 2.68 0.37 325 1.96------
----------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL
greater than or equal to $400 46.04 1.83 0.37
20.55 3.34 0.44 420 2.34------------------------------------------
----------------------------------TOTAL greater than or equal
to $600 15.28 2.27 0.53 24.07 4.21 0.53 541 2.34---
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL greater than or equal to $700 7.52 2.56 0.62
25.33 4.61 0.58 608 3.24-------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------
INFERRED--------------------------------------------------------------------
--------ZONE NMR Tonnes TREO HREO HREO/TREO ZrO2 Nb2O5
Ta2O5 TREO CUTOFF (millions) % % % % %
ppm equiv----------------------------------------------------------------
------------BASAL greater than or equal to $260 107.59
1.35 0.26 18.97 2.83 0.37 354 1.77-------------------------
---------------------------------------------------BASAL greater than
or equal to $400 62.31 1.55 0.32 20.65 3.23 0.
42 404 2.03------------------------------------------------------------
----------------BASAL greater than or equal to $600 9
.30 2.16 0.54 24.76 4.53 0.55 564 2.79---------------------
-------------------------------------------------------BASAL greater
than or equal to $700 4.37 2.50 0.68 27.09 5.22
0.61 658 3.20--------------------------------------------------------
-------------------- -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
------UPPER greater than or equal to $260 115.99 1.27
0.12 9.57 2.37 0.34 196 1.67-------------------------------
---------------------------------------------UPPER greater than or
equal to $400 18.96 1.71 0.16 9.40 3.21 0.46
259 2.24------------------------------------------------------------------
----------UPPER greater than or equal to $600 0.93 2
.48 0.24 9.85 4.62 0.65 447 3.26---------------------------
-------------------------------------------------UPPER greater than or
equal to $700 0.07 3.48 0.29 8.60 4.88 0.69
472 4.38----------------------------------------------------------------
------------ - ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL greater than or equal to $260 223.57 1.31 0.19
14.10 2.59 0.36 272 1.72-------------------------------------
---------------------------------------TOTAL greater than or
equal to $400 81.27 1.59 0.28 18.02 3.22 0.43 370
2.08-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----TOTAL greater than or equal to $600 10.22 2.19
0.51 23.40 4.54 0.56 553 2.83--------------------------------
--------------------------------------------TOTAL greater than or
equal to $700 4.44 2.51 0.67 26.80 5.22 0.61 655
3.22---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------
Table 1b. Total Combined Upper and Basal Zones Indicated and Inferred
Mineral Resources at the $260 base case NMR Cut-off value
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-AREA Tonnes TREO HREO HREO/TREO ZrO2 Nb2O5 Ta2O5
TREO (millions) % % % % % ppm
equiv-----------------------------------------------------------------------
----- TOTAL COMBINED INDICATED---------------------
-------------------------------------------------------UPPER AND BASAL
88.13 1.53 0.26 17.08 2.68 0.37 325 1.96------------
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL COMBINED INFERRED--------------------------------------
--------------------------------------UPPER AND BASAL 226.88 1.30
0.19 14.33 2.61 0.36 278 1.71-----------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
Notes:
1. CIM definitions were followed for Mineral Resources.2. HREO (Heavy
Rare Earth Oxides) is the total concentration of: Y203, Eu203, Gd203,
Tb203, Dy203, Ho2O3, Er203, Tm203, Yb203 and Lu203.3. TREO (Total Rare
Earth Oxides) is HREO plus: La203, Ce203, Pr6011, Nd203and Sm203.4.
Mineral Resources are estimated using price forecasts for 2014 for rare
earth oxides prepared early in 2010. Some of these prices are higher and
some are lower than current prices. The prices used are the same as in
the June 14, 2010 disclosure.5. Mineral Resources are undiluted.6. A cut-
off NMR grade of $260 Can was used for the base case. NMR is defined as "
Net Metal Return" or the in situ value of all the payable rare metals in
the ore net of estimated metallurgical recoveries and processing costs.7.
An exchange rate of 1.11 was used.8. ZrO2 refers to Zirconium Oxide,
Nb2O5 refers to Niobium Oxide, Ta2O5 refers to Tantalum Oxide, Ga2O3
refers to Gallium Oxide.9. TREO equivalent is estimated by calculating a
weighted average NMR per kg for the rare earths and rare metals (Zr, Nb,
Ta) in an given interval, and re-estimating the interval assuming that
all the value was in rare earths only.10. The two main differences to
previous estimates were that 8 composites were used per block, versus 15
in the estimate released in July 19th, 2010 and the Basal Zone was not
flattened onto the lower contact prior to block estimation. All other
parameters were similar.
Shares Outstanding: 93,288,523. Cash resources: approximately $37 million.
Contact:
Contacts:Avalon Rare Metals Inc.William Mercer, Ph.D., P.Geo.VP
E***********************[email protected] | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 14 Be careful sell on news. | B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 15 Hehe! AVL will have new share offering very soon.
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: Be careful sell on news.
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | 16 Are you sure? Should sell now?
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: Hehe! AVL will have new share offering very soon.
| B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 17 Are you kidding?
【在 f******r 的大作中提到】
: Are you sure? Should sell now?
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 18 You think AVL will follow REE and MCP?
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: Hehe! AVL will have new share offering very soon.
| B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 19 AVL is much better than REE because of its heavy RE if AVL's announcement
is real. However, it is hard for AVL to mine HRE due to poor facility (no
good public electricity, water, and traffic over there) around AVL's
resources. The cost will be huge if they decide to mine.
Now It is safe to keep the AVL stock but not options. I will wait for news
from China. If China keeps her words to cut the quota, AVL will reach $10
soon.
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: You think AVL will follow REE and MCP?
| j*****2
发帖数: 306 | 20 my money is at GWMGF for "REE"
yes, AVL is big and HREE, but it need to raise over 1billion to possible
open the mine in maybe 2015 to 2018.
on other hand, GW only need 30million to re-open to the mine, which they are
fully funded.
GWMGF will be first "HREE" to produce and process HREE.
GWMGF is top pick for SPROTT and JACK LIFTON at "REE" sector for 2011.
GWMGF has the technology MCP looking for, which is downsteaming processing "
REE". This cause MCP give them a buyout offer at 2009, I believe down the
road, MCP will give GWMGF another offer, fair value is exchange rate 10share
GWMGF to 1 shares MCP
even there is no offer, as CEO claim, they will make $180M in 2013, and $
360M in 2015, GWMGF is too cheap to pass away at today's price.
also, BYRON issue GWMGF at target price of 2.25buck at JAN 20, 2011, as they
see all the risk is gone at GW, so upgrade the discount rate from 34% to 14
%, currently only MCP & LYC.ax and GWMGF.pk has discount of 14% from BYRON,
which means those 3company is the real leader of the REE market(but BRYON's
target price is using the "REE" price of 1/3 of today's spot price only,
means GWMGF should worth 6 to 8 if apply today's SPOT price of REE)
Rest of miner, like REE AVL QRM.v, list on, all value at 34% to 50% discount
rate. ON the other hand, a JUNK in my mind.
personally own a very big position.
YMYD
【在 B*****e 的大作中提到】
: AVL is much better than REE because of its heavy RE if AVL's announcement
: is real. However, it is hard for AVL to mine HRE due to poor facility (no
: good public electricity, water, and traffic over there) around AVL's
: resources. The cost will be huge if they decide to mine.
: Now It is safe to keep the AVL stock but not options. I will wait for news
: from China. If China keeps her words to cut the quota, AVL will reach $10
: soon.
| | | c********g
发帖数: 1106 | 21 多谢分享
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: my money is at GWMGF for "REE"
: yes, AVL is big and HREE, but it need to raise over 1billion to possible
: open the mine in maybe 2015 to 2018.
: on other hand, GW only need 30million to re-open to the mine, which they are
: fully funded.
: GWMGF will be first "HREE" to produce and process HREE.
: GWMGF is top pick for SPROTT and JACK LIFTON at "REE" sector for 2011.
: GWMGF has the technology MCP looking for, which is downsteaming processing "
: REE". This cause MCP give them a buyout offer at 2009, I believe down the
: road, MCP will give GWMGF another offer, fair value is exchange rate 10share
| B*****e
发帖数: 2413 | 22 GWMGF looks good. However, GWMGF is in the pink list. Also I don't like
REE stocks without option trading.
possible
they are
processing "
the
10share
【在 j*****2 的大作中提到】
: my money is at GWMGF for "REE"
: yes, AVL is big and HREE, but it need to raise over 1billion to possible
: open the mine in maybe 2015 to 2018.
: on other hand, GW only need 30million to re-open to the mine, which they are
: fully funded.
: GWMGF will be first "HREE" to produce and process HREE.
: GWMGF is top pick for SPROTT and JACK LIFTON at "REE" sector for 2011.
: GWMGF has the technology MCP looking for, which is downsteaming processing "
: REE". This cause MCP give them a buyout offer at 2009, I believe down the
: road, MCP will give GWMGF another offer, fair value is exchange rate 10share
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 23 UP.
The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
diversified set of rare earth holdings. All of their projects are 100% owned
.
The Thor Lake holding is delineated into two separate mines. Nechalacho has
several heavy rare earths such as tantalum, niobium, zirconium, haffnium,
and gallium. The North deposit contains berylium, lithium, gallium and
niobium. Separation Rapids has lithium. Lilypad Lakes has tantalum. Warren
Township has anorthosite and East Kemptville has tin-indium.
Avalon's Thor Lake deposit at Nechalacho had a positive prefeasibility study
done in 2010. The company has invested $27 million Canadian since 2005. The
bankable feasibility is underway and is fully financed. This should be
completed by 2012. This large resource could be quite profitable as it has a
20%-28% heavy earths. Recovery process at bench scale, with pilot plant in
progress. Production start up is planned for 2015.
When comparing the Nechalacho to other areas with large concentrations of
rare earths, we see a very large concentration of the heavy rare earths. Mt.
Weld in Australia, Mountain Pass in USA, and Nolans in Australia all show a
much smaller concentration of heavy rare earth elements. Heavies constitute
22.2% of rare earths in Nechalacho as opposed to the high of 3.13% at
Nolans to the low of .39% at Mountain Pass. Although this gives a limited
comparison, it shows the heavy rare earths are in much more limited supply.
Interestingly there has been a much larger demand for rare earths over the
past few years, and nothing shows it slowing down. At the same time China
has begun to decrease exports. Export quotas will be reduced by 35% in the
first half of this year. There has also been an increase in media coverage
for this group. The REE groups have benefited by posting a 300% increase in
2010. Molycorp (MCP) has done a great job of attracting media coverage and
with is has seen a large jump in share appreciation. Molycorp's magnet alloy
joint venture with Hitachi Metals also added investor interest. The company
also announced expansion plans to 40000 tpa TREO and new equity finance.
Looking at Chinese REE exports from 1990 to 2011, show a decrease in overall
exports, but a very large jump in the value of those exports. It shows
price increases of REEs.
As of January 19th of 2011, MetalPages.com listed the prices of these rare
earths:
Light Rare Earths
Lanthanum Oxide 99% min- $61-$63/kg (Rechargeable Batteries)
Cerium Oxide 99% min- $66-$68/kg (Catalyst, glass, polishing)
Praseodymiun 99% min- $89-$92/kg (magnets, glass colorant)
neodymium 99% min-$89.50-$92.50/kg (magnets, lasers, glass)
samarium 99% min-$54-$55/kg (magnets, lighting, lasers)
Heavy Rare Earths
Europium Oxide 99% min- $620-$640 (TV Colour Phosphors: red)
Terbium Oxide 99% min-$610-$630 (Phosphors: Green, magnets)
Dysprosium Oxide 99% min- $285-$305 (Magnets, Lasers)
Gadolinium Oxide 99% min- $53-$56 (Magnets, Superconductors)
Yttrium Oxide 99.999% min- $72-$77 (Phosphors, Ceramics, Lasers)
Two of the REEs listed are of particular interest. Pricing with respect to
dysprosium and neodymium has been quite bullish since December of 2009.
Dysprosium is up over 300% and neodymium is up approximately 500% over this
time frame. Demand is up significantly with many of the REEs, and this
demand should continue for some time.
Magnets and electric motors or Neo magnets allow for a reduced electric
motor/generator size and weight. This improves motor efficiency. Examples
broken down by amount of REE used are:
Electronics- use small amounts (grams)
Hybrid electric cars- use one to two kilograms
Industrial air conditioners- use on average 500 kg
Wind turbines- use .6-1.0 tonne/MW
MRI machines- use 1-3 tonnes
It is safe to say, that some of the rare earths could see dramatic price
increases. When looking at the cost savings with respect to reduced power
consumption (up to 50%), and decreased size, consumers will be willing to
pay higher prices for these advantages. 30% of these magnets are made from
neodymium metal. Dysprosium and terbium make magnets heat resistant, which
is becoming much more important in automotive applications. Many of the
heavy rare earths are used in energy efficient lighting and display screens.
A good example of production need are wind turbines. GE produces a 4 MW
model that uses 2 to 3 tonnes of neo magnets. GE has additional plans to
begin producing a 10 MW model.
Nechalacho is now the third largest deposit in the world with respect to
niobium. It is used in high strength, low alloy steels. Use of this type of
steel is expected to double in a the next few years. Bridge and ship
building create demand. Niobium is just starting to be used in automobiles
and the weight decrease increases fuel efficiency. $9 of niobium creates
fuel savings of one litre every 100 kilometers.
Most zirconium production comes form zircon sands in Australia and South
Africa. China currently imports zircon sands and is the only producer of
zirconium oxychloride. This is needed to produce Zr rated metal. Consumption
is increasing. It is used in nuclear reactor builds.
The Nechalacho mine will eventually produce 2000 tonnes per day, although it
is expected to initially be a lower rate. Production of 10000 tpa mixed REE
oxides for separation elsewhere. The market captures less than 5% of
estimated 2014 total rare earth oxide global demand. Operating costs are
estimated to be $267 per tonne. Cap ex estimate is $900 million for
Nechalacho.
Currently there are no large scale rare earth separation capabilities
outside of China. Building a 25000 tpa HREE plant would have an estimated
cap ex of C$345 million. Sites are being reviewed for possible build.
The best way to determine if Avalon is a good investment is through
comparison to other companies in the REE market. Avalon (AVL) has a market
cap of 633 million; it has 4.298 million tons of TREO, which values their
rare earth oxide at $147 per tonne. Arafura (ARAFF.PK) had a market cap of $
390 million; it has .84 ton of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at
$464 per ton. Quest Rare MInerals (QSURD.PK) has a market cap of 281 million
; it has 551 million tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $
511 per ton. Rare Element Resources (REE) has a market cap of 502 million;
it has .55 million of tons TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $913
per ton. Molycorp has a market cap of 4.22 billion; it has 1.395 million
tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $3025 per ton. It is
obvious some of these numbers are skewed as Molycorp is in the production/
expansion stage of their business and Avalon is in the development stage,
but this does not change the value of the metal in the ground, and
comparison to pears seems to show they are trading at a discount.
In Summary, REEs are an attractive trade based on the expansion of
technology with the emphasis on renewable energy. Although many of these
stocks are up an exceptional amount, this trade is somewhat like uranium.
They trade very high on the idea that companies will pay much more then
today's prices. An example is their use in steel creating a lighter car. The
$9 of niobium saves a liter of fuel ever 100 km. The savings in one
thousand km in month's driving would more then substantiate a major price
increase of niobium. If investing in the rare earths, Avalon is attractive
from two standpoints. The company has a very high concentration of heavy
rare earths. Since these are more scarce price increases will be more likely
here. Secondly, it seems to be a value when compared to REEs in the ground.
I think any of the names mentioned here are a good trade, until the current
trade ends.
Disclosure: I am long AVL. | t********o
发帖数: 555 | 24 thx
今天还在想要不要出了avl
.
at
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: UP.
: The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
: 2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
: about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
: Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
: Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
: best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
: a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
: over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
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