a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 1 What do you think of APA now?
I saw debt reduction, good oil mix and nice production increase. |
x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 2 上游就算了。
不如等这一波大盘跌倒位置了，再上下游。跟着巴菲特，亏了就做长线。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: What do you think of APA now?
: I saw debt reduction, good oil mix and nice production increase.
|
I*****S
发帖数: 1805 | 3 上游都不看好吗？
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: 上游就算了。
: 不如等这一波大盘跌倒位置了，再上下游。跟着巴菲特，亏了就做长线。
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 4 Thanks.
So you still think the correction is likely for SPY and oil is likely to
drop with it. The tail is wagging the dog.
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: 上游就算了。
: 不如等这一波大盘跌倒位置了，再上下游。跟着巴菲特，亏了就做长线。
|
x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 5 SPY overbought了。这个是事实。
看空短期。
因为石油不确定，一旦涨回来，230 就是小菜。
上游受原油影响最大，risk reward也高。如果原油回来，上游赚的比下游多，但是上
游风险远大于下游。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Thanks.
: So you still think the correction is likely for SPY and oil is likely to
: drop with it. The tail is wagging the dog.
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 6 Very good point indeed.
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: SPY overbought了。这个是事实。
: 看空短期。
: 因为石油不确定，一旦涨回来，230 就是小菜。
: 上游受原油影响最大，risk reward也高。如果原油回来，上游赚的比下游多，但是上
: 游风险远大于下游。
|
M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 7 上游如果熬不过去，就大麻烦了。油价这还在低位有的折腾。
【在 I*****S 的大作中提到】
: 上游都不看好吗？
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 8 I still believe we are at the inflection point for oil price.
All the things that need to be done to rebalance the oil have been done,
such as rig count drop, capex cut, the bankruptcy of high marginal producers
and so on. The difficult part to guess is how long the lag time will be.
But we are close to the turning point if not we have already turned.
The longer the lag time, the more dramatic the upward swing will be. The
biggest risk for 2016 is people do not have energy exposure early on, while
in 2015 the biggest risk is people do have enough audacity to predict how
low the oil price would be.
【在 M***n 的大作中提到】
: 上游如果熬不过去，就大麻烦了。油价这还在低位有的折腾。
|
