w****h
发帖数: 1344 | 1 I think a couple days before the election day, the serious polls, i.e. IBD
poll would show a 1-2% lead for Trump. Unlike those polls by the TV
stations, polls like IBD do care about their reputation.
Most of these "scientific" polls do racial, party, economic, age profiling.
All of the polls would conduct profiling from past election/elections or
available official data in 2014 or 2015. So if the poll have biased
profiling, such as the ABC, you would seen some ridiculous double digit lead
for Hilary.
So the profiling is the KEY and it has to be dynamic to be realistic. We
will see poll number getting more realistic near the election day.
Another point I want to make is, as far as I know, NONE of these polls are
able to factor in the enthusiasm since it can't be measured "scientifically"
. Use a 1 to 10 scale, Trumpsters would be 9 or 10 while Hilary supporters
would be 2 or 3. Enthusiasm is actually a very important factor and could
make the poll number look foolish. Why? Because it directly affect the turn
out rate.
For example, Obama in 2008 (very enthusiastic), Romney in 2012 (lukewarm)
This year is a little bit different. There will be 30 million trump
supporters would vote for trump even if there were riot on the street or
SARS and smallpox. There are also million of woman, bought the the MSM's
false portrayal of Trump, would vote for the crooked Hilary.
My prediction is (just a guess), in the end:
Trump will win 50.5% of the popular vote while Hilary will win 47.1% of the
popular vote. | w****h
发帖数: 1344 | 2 I think a couple days before the election day, the serious polls, i.e. IBD
poll would show a 1-2% lead for Trump. Unlike those polls by the TV
stations, polls like IBD do care about their reputation.
Most of these "scientific" polls do racial, party, economic, age profiling.
All of the polls would conduct profiling from past election/elections or
available official data in 2014 or 2015. So if the poll have biased
profiling, such as the ABC, you would seen some ridiculous double digit lead
for Hilary.
So the profiling is the KEY and it has to be dynamic to be realistic. We
will see poll number getting more realistic near the election day.
Another point I want to make is, as far as I know, NONE of these polls are
able to factor in the enthusiasm since it can't be measured "scientifically"
. Use a 1 to 10 scale, Trumpsters would be 9 or 10 while Hilary supporters
would be 2 or 3. Enthusiasm is actually a very important factor and could
make the poll number look foolish. Why? Because it directly affect the turn
out rate.
For example, Obama in 2008 (very enthusiastic), Romney in 2012 (lukewarm)
This year is a little bit different. There will be 30 million trump
supporters would vote for trump even if there were riot on the street or
SARS and smallpox. There are also million of woman, bought the the MSM's
false portrayal of Trump, would vote for the crooked Hilary.
My prediction is (just a guess), in the end:
Trump will win 50.5% of the popular vote while Hilary will win 47.1% of the
popular vote. | w****h
发帖数: 1344 | 3 Bragging moment. hehe.
发信人: wmmbmh (haha), 信区: USANews
标 题: Today's poll and my prediction
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 8 16:30:05 2016, 美东)
The turnout rate is really good. I think this election is OVER.
Trump the President of the United States!
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【在 w****h 的大作中提到】
: I think a couple days before the election day, the serious polls, i.e. IBD
: poll would show a 1-2% lead for Trump. Unlike those polls by the TV
: stations, polls like IBD do care about their reputation.
: Most of these "scientific" polls do racial, party, economic, age profiling.
: All of the polls would conduct profiling from past election/elections or
: available official data in 2014 or 2015. So if the poll have biased
: profiling, such as the ABC, you would seen some ridiculous double digit lead
: for Hilary.
: So the profiling is the KEY and it has to be dynamic to be realistic. We
: will see poll number getting more realistic near the election day.
| w****h
发帖数: 1344 | 4 I believe my numbers are probably closer to the actual results. There are
still large scale voter fraud in the cities.
some polling station in cities like Philadelphia were still open @11:30 pm!
absentee ballots were mysterious opened (and republican votes were thrown
out).
anyone who has a State ID could register at another states without any
background checking, whether he is citizen or not.
dead/mentally ill people voting
13% of Illegal Aliens ADMIT They Vote
and many many more |
|
