K*Q
发帖数: 1001 | 1 http://www.guardingyourwealth.com/insurance/articles/Lifeinsura
Has a life insurance agent suggested that you buy ‘permanent’ insurance
such as Whole Life, Universal Life or Variable Universal Life? The reasons
they give seem so compelling, but are they in your best interest? Here’s an
explanation of the basics, plus what the insurance agent isn’t telling you!
There are two broad categories of life insurance—term and permanent. The
basic idea behind life insurance is that if you die prematurely,... 阅读全帖 |
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K*Q
发帖数: 1001 | 2 In my last article, I explained the basic differences between term and
permanent insurance. Permanent insurance such as Whole Life, Universal Life,
Equity-Indexed Universal Life and Variable Universal Life is regularly
promoted as the perfect retirement vehicle or the new way to build wealth.
This week I will expose the fallacies of those arguments.
First of all, I believe that the need for life insurance should be met in
the most economical way possible. With universal insurance, where life
ins... 阅读全帖 |
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o**********e
发帖数: 18403 | 3 【 以下文字转载自 Boston 讨论区 】
发信人: onetiemyshoe (onetiemyshoe), 信区: Boston
标 题: 共和党参院移民委员会主席Jeff Sessions对STEM宣战了 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 29 10:36:41 2015, 美东)
发信人: zz2010 (毛屁屁), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 共和党参院移民委员会主席Jeff Sessions对STEM宣战了 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 28 16:07:59 2015, 美东)
发信人: tomnjerry (tom jerry), 信区: EB23
标 题: 共和党参院移民委员会主席Jeff Sessions对STEM宣战了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 26 16:06:42 2015, 美东)
Jeff Sessions刚刚被任命为新一届国会共和党参院移民委员会主席，他的顶头上司是
本版最爱戴的参院司法委员会主席Chuck Grassley，俗称格老。
本版最爱的高科技移民... 阅读全帖 |
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G**********e
发帖数: 11693 | 4 你遇到过就遇到过呗，你能遇到a，我就不能遇到b？一码是一码，凭什么我遇到b就是
扯呢？
你把“assumption”和“肯定”两个词语用在同一个句子里面，有logical fallacy，
我assume没错，但我没肯定任何事～做事就是要大胆假设小心求证，你是不许我假设，
还是不许我求证啊？ |
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k*********h
发帖数: 1841 | 5 我是说，你提到的这个slippery slope fallacy就是很多人现在在烦的 |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 6 http://www.chicagotribune.com/dining/ct-no-tipping-nyc-restaura
The Tipping Game
December 21, 2015 1:50 p.m.
No-tipping policy begins at NYC restaurant and industry is watching
After months of preparation, Danny Meyer, whose various New York City
restaurants have won virtually every industry accolade in existence over the
years, took the plunge into the largely uncharted waters of tip-free dining.
The great hospitality-included experiment began Thursday at The Modern, the
priciest restaurant in ... 阅读全帖 |
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B******1
发帖数: 9094 | 7 By doing what? Showing misleading graph on-line?
Failing to recognize the number vs. percentage fallacy of the key evidence
shown in a graphic form?
you |
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B******1
发帖数: 9094 | 8 Jews? I thought you wrote that the Asians are the new Jews. Hence, the
more Jews, the merrier the Asians in the Ivy League school. Gosh!
Besides, I don't care about number or percentage of Jews. I only care about
the graph which showed number and percentage fallacy regarding Asians in
the graph you posted.
The Jews have money. They buy their ways into anything. What does that to
do with AA which concerns no Jews? |
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m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 9 don't care if it's a fallacy
(看jp男有感而唱) |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 10 This is a common fallacy. Just having a chance to guess right doesn't mean
it is a superior line. For example, if you have a two-way finesse, in theory
you can make 100% of time if you guess right, but that doesn't mean taking
the finesse is better than an alternative line which has 60% of success rate.
Look it in another way. We are actually breaking down to three lines, not
two:
1) Play small to Q, then cash A.
2) Play J, cover by K, A. LHO follows 8 or x. Play Q next.
3) Play J, cover by K, A... 阅读全帖 |
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W******l
发帖数: 71 | 11 Too much. Borderline personal attack.
Fallacies in Arguments
Attacking the Person - Also known as Argumentum ad Hominem (argument against
the man), this is quite a common occurrence in debates and refers to a
person who substitutes a rebuttal with a personal insult.
For example: “Don’t listen to Eddie’s arguments on education, he’s an
idiot.” |
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g********x
发帖数: 4671 | 13 这个叫什么来着
Fallacy of faulty causation |
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c*****3
发帖数: 1655 | 14 应大家的减肥要求，贴一个以前写给友人的读书笔记
我只有一点不同意Anderson，就是晚上吃东西
最近研究表明，至少要给身体10-12小时的fasting时间，否则长肉！
另外，心理上的改变只是减肥的开始，后来的饮食和运动增肌就有各家学派，因人而异了
祝大家减肥愉快，减肥成功！
作者William Anderson是个心理医生，在他二十五岁300磅左右的时候发明了这个
Anderson疗法，减了140磅，然后一直保持了二十多年至今。
有这样几个重点：
1. Mind会直接影响到body.比如抑郁症、疾病不治自愈等。在weight control方面，要
用mind 的conditioning 功能--"We are driven by repulsion, as well as desire
and craving. Conditioning is the primal power source...drives you to repeat
behavior that feels good, even if you wanted to stop".
具体来说，就是我看到并吃到健康的蔬菜... 阅读全帖 |
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B*****e
发帖数: 9375 | 15 This is an unmitigated fallacy.
There was no fantasy football -- or the now omnipresent on-line betting --
in the 70s or 80s, yet the NFL rating still soared in that era.
Conclusive proof, beyond reasonable doubts, that the popularity of the game of professional football needs no artificial stimulus outside the lines. |
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B*****e
发帖数: 9375 | 16
There was this fallacy that a wedding band on a man's hand attracts women,
with some filtering work supposedly already done by a peer. |
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B*****e
发帖数: 9375 | 17 No, that is a fallacy.
要证实你一无所有 才给你治病的 是Medicaid 是比较糟糕简陋的服务
Medicare是你工作其间就从你的薪水里抽走了的金额
所以你才能在年老之后有资格使用 即使你还有存款 还有财产
Medicare也是一步步来的 分成parts A,B,C,D等等
已经过了66岁 但又还在工作 有雇主提供医疗保险的
第一步 就是把最昂贵的住院那部分(part D)
从雇主名下转到Medicare名下 就差一些了
以后随着年龄增长 或不再工作
其他A,B, C部分(抓药 手术 看专科医生)也都先后转到归Medicare管
Part D住院那部分的钱 按现在的推算 到2030年代中期 就会用完了
但其他部分的还在 |
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c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 18 你这智商也够呛，英文读不懂，看不懂“because the ball attendant is an
employee not of the league but of the team."
然后怀恨在心两天后想出个red herring fallacy:
"这只是一个重点。另一个重点就是球是什么时候给球童的，我看到的一篇转文说是比赛
前给，球童已经在边线上，换句话说那两小时十五分，球是在裁判更衣室的。
裁判查完就给球童保存两个多小时，这个我是没见人提过，更别说什么honor system了
。"
希望你冷静下来，不要变成个小K那样喜欢记恨的假娘们 |
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C*****E
发帖数: 2679 | 19 还好吧，我只不过只指出了你们选择性控制环境变量的Logical fallacy
没有参与到你们辩论谁强谁不强的辩论中
我也很明确地说了，“成就”的定义可以讨论。
你们要说白菜更强因为MVP更多码数更多，我觉得也是一个solid argument嘛。
这又怎么不respect，怎么不给dignity了？
你们灌了几十层楼，我在边上参与两句还不行了？ |
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l*x
发帖数: 14021 | 20 道歉。我回的不是你的原贴，而是另一楼的延续。帖子解释的很清楚。与你原帖无关。
: 还好吧，我只不过只指出了你们选择性控制环境变量的Logical fallacy
: 没有参与到你们辩论谁强谁不强的辩论中
: 我也很明确地说了，“成就”的定义可以讨论。
: 你们要说白菜更强因为MVP更多码数更多，我觉得也是一个solid argument嘛。
: 这又怎么不respect，怎么不给dignity了？
: 你们灌了几十层楼，我在边上参与两句还不行了？
|
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n*********3
发帖数: 534 | 21 two uniquely different outcomes will of course have the same 1/n probability
.
there are less outcomes that give more structure, such as HHHH.... TTTT...
than the outcomes (not a specific single one outcome) that give less
structure, such as HTHTHT... or THHTTHTHT... or ...
I know, the initial question is tricky to involve gambler's fallacy,...
But then, those arguments often do not consider and group the outcomes
according to their structures. |
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c**d
发帖数: 3888 | 22 I use extremities to expose what I see as fallacies in arguments.
I realize people can be very entrenched in their beliefs and unwilling to
change even in the face of clear contradictory evidence. It can cause a huge
mental discomfort for us gun owners to concede the fact that guns as a
whole harm our society.
As such, I have no illusion that anyone could convince anyone. If there's
any purpose behind these dialogues, they have allowed me to test the
soundness of my belief by bouncing it off peo... 阅读全帖 |
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l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 23 车祸3万人对走火600人的数字是logical fallacy。所有人开车的时间，比玩枪的时间
多太多了。这个差距绝对50倍不止 |
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G***a
发帖数: 27294 | 24 我不支持atkins，但是我就是受不太了scientific fallacy被人传来传去而已。 |
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U********r
发帖数: 111 | 25 http://www.thebuckeyebattlecry.com/2012/02/the-ohio-state-roste
it's a pity Diggs is gone but the article still a good read. I remember
somebody said one of the reasons that Diggs turned away from Bucks was due
to the "oversign". We'll find out it's true or not.
================================================
The Ohio State Roster and Stefon Diggs
Just yesterday the official Ohio State Athletics website posted an updated
depth chart for the Buckeyes. There were some big changes, though many we... 阅读全帖 |
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c****e
发帖数: 1984 | 26 你还真有空。 象你这样的，还能信我？freeh report很多没有hard facts, 就是
fallacy.
你在这里胡扯把， 我说过他没有legacy么。这个legacy是你说的。
!??
哩. |
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P****S
发帖数: 2457 | 28 还没孩子 ——》肯定比我小
Blatant logical fallacy ! |
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m**i
发帖数: 9848 | 29 每日邮报看看就行了吧，和环球没有区别。
这篇文章里的逻辑有个专门的词儿，texas sharpshooter fallacy，德州神枪手谬误。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 30 前面和你逗了两帖，现在我来严肃地指出你帖的逻辑错误。
“热爱”的定义是一种心理活动，属于情感范畴。这一心理活动可以引发并促使载体去
行动，但并不代表载体一定要去对所“热爱”的对象付诸行动。如老夫我对网球比赛十
分热爱，可以三点钟设置闹钟来看AO决赛，但我从来没有打过网球。反之，我基本上每
天游泳，但很少观看游泳比赛，即使是菲利普的奥运决赛。我热爱中国，但现在没有实
体上居住在中国。
你帖的逻辑错误是“实体化谬误（reification fallacy）”！
你明白了吗？ |
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w**a
发帖数: 3510 | 31 说得好。我说了网上藏龙卧虎都别以为自己高人一等。那些人其实就是自我中心，和自
己不一样的都是呆瓜的思维。
[在 jd123 (jd123) 的大作中提到：]
:前面和你逗了两帖，现在我来严肃地指出你帖的逻辑错误。
:“热爱”的定义是一种心理活动，属于情感范畴。这一心理活动可以引发并促使载体
去行动，但并不代表载体一定要去对所“热爱”的对象付诸行动。如老夫我对网球比赛
十分热爱，可以三点钟设置闹钟来看AO决赛，但我从来没有打过网球。反之，我基本上
每天游泳，但很少观看游泳比赛，即使是菲利普的奥运决赛。我热爱中国，但现在没有
实体上居住在中国。
:你帖的逻辑错误是“实体化谬误（reification fallacy）”！
:你明白了吗？ |
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x*********h
发帖数: 2223 | 32 这是转自豆瓣上的一篇文章，如果你正深陷于十二星座小秘密、令人惊呼准到爆的血型
密码不能自拔而且觉得那些东西真的是太他妈的准了，或者你很恶心他们又苦于不能说
出一句比“那些都是骗人的”更高级更具有说服力的话，那么把这篇文章推荐给你
适度看看星座什么的能获得快乐没什么不好，但是沉迷真的是……
正文：
星座？血型？笔迹？塔罗？八字？属相？手相？面相？心理小测验……是不是觉得好准
呢？是不是觉得冥冥中有一股暗涌在控制着你的性格命运甚至大姨妈？其实秘诀只有三
个常见的心理效应而已，这里菠萝给大家一一道来，并附上破解的招式，供大家见招拆
招。
V5第一击——巴纳姆效应 Barnum effect
要你相信一种不靠谱，必须首先让你觉得它有点靠谱，也就是它给出的描述预测让你觉
得准确，不然你肯定大吼一声准你妹啊！！然后不顾而去。要让你觉得准确，其实不是
什么困难的事情。
巴纳姆是魔术杂技师，他的节目大伙都爱看，人家问他你咋这么牛逼呢！他说牛逼个球
，我只是把各种人都爱看的元素放进我的节目里而已！
星座、血型等等伪心理学给出的描述也一样，它们绝对不会给你一种常人没有的人格，
比如说它不会说：“你看到凤姐... 阅读全帖 |
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j******n
发帖数: 871 | 33 it is called narrative fallacy... |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 34 It's a fallacy to talk about return without adjusting for risks. Adjusting
for beta (volatility), gold has been the best "investment" of the past
decade. Period. And silver may very well be the investment of this decade.
I started buying gold/silver and related equities at $880 on the day QE was
announced. Pretty much went all-in when gold crossed $1000 mark. Have never
sold any holdings since and will never sell any unless Fed Reserve changes
its zero-interest policy, which they never will till... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******e
发帖数: 6482 | 35 要留住男人可不止这些……
纯靠Sex appeal能留住的都是处男
真材实料。这个，就好比是一个见过大场面的美女，几秒钟就能看出一个男人有多少斤
两一样。从头到脚一身名牌和一身布衣的差别，也就是看两眼和看一眼的差别。
，对不起，不是往名牌boutique里面砸一万块钱，照着杂志就能买得到的。
purchaser. Most designer clothes and accessories have snob appeal.
agree with me and buy my product because hardly anybody else is. While it
may sound like a lousy call for pity for a floundering business, it is
really an appeal to everybody's natural urges to distinguish themselves from
all the rest. It is an appeal to your inner snob. The fallacy... 阅读全帖 |
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b****e
发帖数: 412 | 36 欢迎专栏作家归来！
真材实料。这个，就好比是一个见过大场面的美女，几秒钟就能看出一个男人有多少斤
两一样。从头到脚一身名牌和一身布衣的差别，也就是看两眼和看一眼的差别。
，对不起，不是往名牌boutique里面砸一万块钱，照着杂志就能买得到的。
purchaser. Most designer clothes and accessories have snob appeal.
agree with me and buy my product because hardly anybody else is. While it
may sound like a lousy call for pity for a floundering business, it is
really an appeal to everybody's natural urges to distinguish themselves from
all the rest. It is an appeal to your inner snob. The fallacy of snob
appeal exploits... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****k
发帖数: 284 | 37 your logic fallacy is appeal to ignorance
着女 |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 38 The Chewbacca defense is a legal strategy used in episode 27 of South Park,
"Chef Aid", which premiered on October 7, 1998, as the fourteenth episode of
the second season. The aim of the argument is to deliberately confuse the
jury by making use of the fallacy known as ignoratio elenchi (or a red
herring). The concept satirised attorney Johnnie Cochran's closing argument
defending O. J. Simpson in his murder trial. |
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z*i
发帖数: 58873 | 39 这还是偏软科幻，很多读者还是追求所谓用想象力和逻辑驾驭的硬一点的，比如 tech,
science, possibility, logic fallacy 这类的。
这类的越来越难写了，而且没好故事和人物冲突carry 不起来。
我对三体的最大意见就是整个故事没有塑造出一个，哪怕是一个，不符号化，
stereotype的人物。只有读到最后外星人在飞船里按照命令扔什么二相炸弹什么的，整
个故事才有点感觉。
相比之下，基地系列里面大多数chapter的人物塑造都很好。 |
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b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 40 Sci-Fi hardness isn't a label. It's a continuum. There's a LOT of middle
ground.
阿西莫夫运用对话相当娴熟，塑造人物有优势
这还是偏软科幻，很多读者还是追求所谓用想象力和逻辑驾驭的硬一点的，比如 tech,
science, possibility, logic fallacy 这类的。
这类的越来越难写了，而且没好故事和人物冲突carry 不起来。
我对三体的最大意见就是整个故事没有塑造出一个，哪怕是一个，不符号化，
stereotype的人物。只有读到最后外星人在飞船里按照命令扔什么二相炸弹什么的，整
个故事才有点感觉。
相比之下，基地系列里面大多数chapter的人物塑造都很好。 |
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l***y
发帖数: 4671 | 41 No true Scotsman fallacy 啊。 |
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l*r
发帖数: 79569 | 42 My art of artillery is beyond rebuke, your accusation is totally groundless
and merely a pathetic fallacy. |
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l*y
发帖数: 21010 | 43 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7w0eqUBp3c
Pet Shop Boys - Love is a bourgeois construct
I've been taking my time for a long time
Putting my feet up a lot
Speaking English as a foreign language
any words that I haven't forgot
I've been thinking how I can't be bothered
to wash the dishes or remake the bed
What's the point when I could doss instead?
I've been hanging out with various riff-raff
somewhere on the Goldhawk Road
I don't think it's gonna be much longer
'til I'm mugging up on the penal c... 阅读全帖 |
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l***y
发帖数: 4671 | 44 他哪里是不严谨啊。这是经典的 No true Scotsman fallacy。
Person A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge."
Person B: "I am Scottish, and I put sugar on my porridge."
Person A: "Well, no true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge." |
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d**********h
发帖数: 2795 | 45 没看还，先瞎说几句
法律应该不是科学
去年看的一部网络小说“死人经”里面一个人告诉主角一个相似观点:我们的目的是解
决问题而不是揭示真相，如果一致纯属巧合
Fallacy
what |
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c***x
发帖数: 1826 | 46
谢谢飞天学长详细的分析和解释，如此看来，原文中提到的三个fallacies也确实是普
通人易犯的错误，而原文的评论还是相当的到位和贴切。更要感谢，学长细致和深刻的
剖析背后的根源，让我知其然，更知其所以然。谈谈我的理解，你可以检验，我是否真
的理解了你的意思。
就从与我相关的社会科学说起吧。社会科学里的研究问题大概分为两类：
positive and normative.
positive就是实证的意思，研究是什么，为什么的问题。这个好比当下论题中的“挖掘
事实真相”；这个是鉴证人员，是警察的使命；
normative就是规范的意思，研究好不好，应该怎么样的问题。比如，因为调节冲突，
维护社会安定团结是好的，所以要加速审判流程，节约司法资源；这个是律师，是法官
的职责。
明白法律追求的并不是绝对的真相，实现的并不是绝对的公平正义，于幼稚的理想主义
，还是有那么一点眼里进沙的痛楚。可是，学长说得好，深入想想，这既是客观世界的
约束 -- 很多事情本就是untestable thus unverifiable；也有社会思潮的必然 -- 实
用主义和扎根在自由至上的 “原教旨”主义。
所以... 阅读全帖 |
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