g*********0
发帖数: 672 | 1 不低也不高
中间水平,完全没有overbought,这次如果要说overbought,至少要到1180左右才算 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 2 no overbought, no continous supply at relatively low price level
no overbought, no frogs holding cash and staring at train go far far away(
north) |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 3 momentum means the more overbought it gets the more overbought it gets... |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 4 自己入场了市场马上就是overbought,割肉或者取利了市场就变成oversold了 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 6 大盘有点点overbought了，不过还不够我正式用overbought做title。老读者也许能记
得，我不轻易用overbought做 title的，因为我观察的overbought信号并不是普通的信
号，因此他们的准确率是相当高的(so don’t tell me overbought can be more
overbought, just search my past record to see what happened when I
officially used overbought as the title. The most recent time I used
overbought as the title was in 07/26 Market Recap)。之所以今天提前说可能要
overbought，意思是提醒牛牛，明天如果还涨的话，注意套利，pullback就在眼前了。
当然，pullback if indeed，多半仅仅是个short-term pullback而已。
下面看看几个我所谓不是普通的overbought信号。
Percent of SPX ... 阅读全帖 |
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L****n
发帖数: 240 | 7 请先看我的签名档...
在梦里大牛忽然从我的视线中消失了, 我急得满头大汗...
突然发现自己在一个会议室的角落里, 会议室里全是大牛, 有的把脚跷在两万块钱的大
会议桌上(在这个楼里算很普通的), 有的一边喝咖啡以便摇着巨粗的牛尾巴, 差点就
把我扫个趔趄!
"我认为, the market is overbought, it could crash any time, the fundamentals
can't continue to support the rally..." 隔着很多牛屁股, 身材矮小的我只能看
见说话的大牛一边说话, 一边在地上点着自己的牛蹄.
"我很同意你的观点, 但是新的情况出现了, 市场现在考虑的不是什么overbought或者
什么fundamentals了, 这些都是正常情况下的战略要素, 通常情况下市场overbought是
因为贪婪, 但是现在市场overbought已经演化成了恐惧, 人们恐惧inflation会随时到
来把我们的cash吞没,连骨头都不吐..." 另一个大牛说, 这是一头大黄牛, 所以我在题
目里说很黄.
我顺着声音仰望过 |
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V********e
发帖数: 578 | 8 Highlights:
"The bottom line is that near-term market direction is largely a throw of
the dice, though with dice that are modestly biased to the downside. Indeed,
the present overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome tends to be
associated with a tendency for the market to repeatedly establish slight new
highs, with shallow pullbacks giving way to further marginal new highs over
a period of weeks. This instance has been no different. As we extend the
outlook horizon beyond several weeks, howe... 阅读全帖 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 9 我自己不看的。就看broker给我的overbought和oversold，还有那些支撑线，阻力线之
类的，也不知道对不对，就瞎看。连线乱连。
不过我有一个好的screen，符合条件的才能做TA。
我一般遵守一个小理论，overbought 等2天，第一天不动，第二天看早上和中午，
早上跌，中午继续，必须割肉减仓，
早上跌，中午拉回走U，坚决加仓，
第二天overbought消失，继续加仓，
直到图形走横线，走倒U，坚决出仓。 |
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M******c
发帖数: 1836 | 10 随着大盘冲过3k,地产板块也已经贡献了他能够贡献的能量,板块进入了严重overbought
阶段.当股市趋势形成后,所有overbought/oversold的意义就会失效,只能依靠个人对大盘
走势的判断而做出正确的判断.
我们建议在这个点位获利了结一半以上的房地产板块仓位,剩下的部分跟着大盘的走势
来走.
注:我们版务始终会对大家进行风险提示,具体的操作仍然把握在您自己的手中.:-) |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 11 very strong chart. definitely overbought, and definitely can get a lot more
overbought. |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 12 老有人猜顶,overbought了还overbought还是涨.
现在的涨势和下半年经济复苏的期望挂钩.
能够在近期转势的需要trigger.目前看到的有三个可能
1.中国调控.
2.经济继续恶化.
3.公司报告赢利没有象想象中的复苏.
这些都得等到将近九月或过后.
coke1 (coke) 于 (Mon Jul 27 12:47:28 2009, 美东) 提到:
经济衰退已经过去.经济复苏的程度在未来一两年还是未知数
但是下半年肯定有很多跟经济挂勾的行业要报告复苏的迹象.
譬如汽车.
大盘很多基金怕落后正在逢低吸进, 钢铁和其他cyclicals应该可以维持强势到九月. |
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 13
There's nothing wrong if she didn't comment the market was peaked
on March 4th. This market has been certainly overbought for a while,
but overbought market can still run up, with all sorts of negative
divergences. |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 14 SPX would not stop until RSI reach overbought area, coming out of a
correction this size. here it is.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL STOP AFTER IT REACH OVERBOUGHT. it's time to dial
down a bit, raise cash and sell off those non performing position. but...
which one? |
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g**********7
发帖数: 2026 | 15 Apple Trading From 90 to 200 - Lessons
发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Apple Trading From 90 to 200 - Lessons Learned
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 2 23:21:53 2008)
I closed out all my January Apple options at the opening this morning
including 500 Jan 150 calls and 200 Jan 180 and Jan 200 calls as planned to
delay tax payment to this year. In addition I closed all my Jan 100 and Jan
130 RIMM calls. All of them made money except Jan 130 RIMM call, which lost
about 80% of value. 2007 has been a w... 阅读全帖 |
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t***y
发帖数: 2276 | 16 感觉这个评论对中该很中肯。各位股友有何指点？
http://www.minyanville.com/buzz/buzzalert/time-to-evaluate/07/0
Indices paused yesterday as leaders continued to move up and break out. Last
week the market had its most powerful move since 2009, taking numerous
market participants by surprise. Next few days will be tricky as key stocks
continue to act great, but the indices themselves are extremely overbought.
Market is ignoring news like the “Portugal debt downgrade” as well as
chatter of some “Banking problems in China”... 阅读全帖 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 17 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kbrhouston (石油工人-一切MM都是普赛，纸老虎) 于 (Sat Nov 5 22:33:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
1来便于查阅
2来便于老牛清水（怕误删）
3便于顶进十大，壮大声势，繁荣古板
4减少肥猫工作（否则他需要花精力查看大家的所有请求贴）
谢谢大家
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]) 于 (Mon Nov 7 23:08:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
要最新预测的，
请在此报名股票符号。
打算提供２０到３０个预测。
由最先报名的股票符号开始。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
fockugcd (fockugcd) 于 (Mon Nov 7 23:09:47 2011, 美东) 提到:
胖肥猫，是不是永久免费的：）？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？
☆────────────────────... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 18 Arthur Hill On Goals, Style and Strategy
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_
Before investing or trading, it is important to develop a strategy or game
plan that is consistent with your goals and style. The ultimate goal is to
make money (win), but there are many different methods to go about it.
As with many aspects of trading, many sports offer a good analogy. A
football team with goals geared towards ball control and low-scoring games
might adapt a conservative sty... 阅读全帖 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 19 所以问题就出来了。
我也倾向于看好跌。但是你说buy low sell high，又说SPY已经在高点了，不能买。这
个是不符合基本的TA 操作的。而大家又都叫你TA大师，你说，这个是不是说不过去。
TA的indicator都是给方向的，比如 overbought了，这个是bearish sign，但是准不准
呢？如果一个股票又是52 week high，又是overbought，那么这个股票bearish还是
bullish呢？
大盘现在预测，你当然可以说跌，但是你给的理由不valid，buy low sell high，或者
高位了，不能买，这些FA看来天经地义，但是TA做起来刚好都是错的。
对了，你怎么选了这么一个小弟，哈哈哈。 |
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p*******g
发帖数: 809 | 20 注：本贴旨在帮助蝌蚪青蛙们如何提高炒股水平，通过自己的努力最终成为股海的冲浪
高手。包括最近股哥那些传得出神入化的预测，我也略微用最简单的TA方法教你怎么做
到（至于更安全更好的TA方法，需要你通过自己的努力，思考，和研究来获得。No
Free Lunch。）
至于那些甘愿一辈子当蝌蚪青蛙，一门心思乞求被人给pick，乞求别人告诉自己什么时
候买入，什么时候卖出的蝌蚪青蛙们，就请走开。本贴不适合你。
下面谈谈自己的一点点经验，算是抛砖引玉。我本身不是高手，不对的地方请指正。
炒股方法分2大派，一大派是FA，另外是TA。
这里先说FA。当我初入股市的时候，我觉得FA才是真正的有科学依据，比如选股要依据
公司的各种因素来综合考虑等等。所以我也花了不少时间去做FA，包括学习怎么读公司
的报表，怎么研究公司的经营状况，等等。后来发现其实FA的东西，很多网站已经给你
分析好了。
我认为最好的莫过于Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) http://www.investors.com/. 你只要输入公司的pick，你就可以得到非常详细的FA资料，比如EPS增长速度，销... 阅读全帖 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 23 206 以后跌，不会跌很猛，日线级别。大概见不到185这种
回跌以后，石油领军，head 230。
205.98 hit BB 概率。overbought，必有回调。
230来自FA。周线轻微overbought，回归中线冲刺有room |
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|
发帖数: 1 | 25 sp500刚跌2个星期，开始从 overbought 向下滑翔，4-5星期可能跌出 overbought 区
，然后会加速下跌，4-5星期可能进入熊市。
另外这次的顶是尖顶，不想2000，和2008是圆顶，所以崩盘会很快，逢高出货的机会不
多。 |
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k****y
发帖数: 781 | 26 overbought may stay in overbought for a while. |
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X****i
发帖数: 1877 | 27
没错。我最喜欢逗OVERBOUGHT股票的MM。
因为维持那状况，耗费的资金特别多。
所以在Overbought高峰附近卖空最爽。
不需要卖空太多，足够刺激花街死撑就行。
留下大量现金等在下波挤空高峰再加码。
最终价位崩盘时，花街用的炮灰基金必亏损。 |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 28 来自主题: _Stockcafeteria版 - 缓跌快涨 $SSEC: This is call typical bull market
1) Price: up,I don't care, I just up.
2) MACD: never run below 0 line
3) RSI: Overbought? what overbought?
4) Every dip is an opportunity to buy |
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S******t
发帖数: 8388 | 29 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock
标 题: 顶不顶?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 13 13:54:49 2009, 美东)
老有人猜顶,overbought了还overbought还是涨.
现在的涨势和下半年经济复苏的期望挂钩.
能够在近期转势的需要trigger.目前看到的有三个可能
1.中国调控.
2.经济继续恶化.
3.公司报告赢利没有象想象中的复苏.
这些都得等到将近九月或过后.
coke1 (coke) 于 (Mon Jul 27 12:47:28 2009, 美东) 提到:
经济衰退已经过去.经济复苏的程度在未来一两年还是未知数
但是下半年肯定有很多跟经济挂勾的行业要报告复苏的迹象.
譬如汽车.
大盘很多基金怕落后正在逢低吸进, 钢铁和其他cyclicals应该可以维持强势到九月. |
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 30 what I said is that market is overbought, I didn't say market is topped.
Overbought market can still go higher for a short period of time,
but a correction sooner or later is imperative. |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 31 这个Overbought/Oversold看不出来跟其它普通指标比如RSI
有什么大的不同，或者你上个放大的对比图，对比一下你的
这个Overbought/Oversold和RSI etc
circles and spares in the first figure. Pay attention to the overbough/
oversold line only. |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 32 来自主题: _Stockcafeteria版 - 到顶没有？ DOW closed in green 8 days in a row,
Overbought? what overbought? hehe |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 33 William %R： Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R is a momentum
indicator that is the inverse of the Fast Stochastic Oscillator. Also
referred to as %R, Williams %R reflects the level of the close relative to
the highest high for the look-back period. In contrast, the Stochastic
Oscillator reflects the level of the close relative to the lowest low. %R
corrects for the inversion by multiplying the raw value by -100. As a result
, the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R produce the exact... 阅读全帖 |
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g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 34 Indicators Most Overbought Since 2000 and 2007! Is a 2007-Like Decline Next?
etfguide
Simon Maierhofer, On Thursday March 25, 2010, 12:41 pm EDT
Guilty pleasures, who doesn't have one? For some it might be chocolates, for
others cars, TV shows, or something else you should feel really guilty
about.
Famed value investor Jeremy Grantham said that 'riding a bubble is a guilty
pleasure totally denied to value managers.'
Being denied some of the bubble benefits in exchange for avoiding some of
the bu... 阅读全帖 |
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x********u
发帖数: 228 | 35 MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR TURNS NEGATIVE ... On January 6, I wrote an explanation
of the McClellan Oscillator and its longer-range version which is the
Summation Index. The Oscillator measures short to intermediate momentum in
NYSE market breadth. It's the difference between the 19- and 39-day EMAs of
NYSE net advances. Readings over 100 market are overbought while a drop to -
100 is oversold. Chart 6 shows the NYMO rallying from oversold readings
during November and pulling back from an overbought r |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 36 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: MM没体力了肿莫办？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 5 16:51:59 2012, 美东)
MM 没事。故意不让股市大幅起跌是安排好了的。
并且一个多月以来，都是如此，看下面SPY的预测。
起跌都一直只是零点多的百分比，只他们在赚HFT。
散户们根本没法玩这小波动，但MM能，故维持猪市。
根据预测，可以知道目前没理由有大幅度的股市起跌。
如果有，基本就是极端(OverSold/OverBought)的情况。
当然，知道股市不起不跌，散户可以卖空Straddle赚钱。
SPY, 20120904, 141.0300, 0.3556, 0.3, 0.3544, 0.3,
SPY, 20120831, 141.4400, -0.0420, -0.0, -0.0419, -0.0,
SPY, 20120830, 140.4600, ... 阅读全帖 |
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d*c
发帖数: 588 | 37 现在overbought这么严重花姐各种文章鼓励入市 |
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s*******h
发帖数: 375 | 38 对于走在5日均线上的，持有，哪日顶背离了，解决离场。
overbought
大盘 |
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p***n
发帖数: 1987 | 39 赞千户闭关归来之后功力猛增啊！九阴白骨爪貌似已进入第三层境界......
overbought
大盘 |
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w*****s
发帖数: 4116 | 40 二手交易风险自负！请自行验证是否合法和一手卡！:
我想卖的物品:
Staples $25 off $75 $25 dinning coupon
单张面值:
$25 off $75 expire Apr.06
$25 dinning expire May 16
可接受价格(必须明码标价！):
$1 or 150mit wb
物品新旧要求:
new, not used
邮寄方式要求:
email
买卖双方谁承担邮寄损失(Required if not code only):
n/a
付款方式说明:
paypal
其他补充说明:
I overbought 3-4 sets coupon last weekend. They are not retrieved from SDer
yet. So they will be safe when you use it.
广告的有效期:
till gone.
物品来源(Required for All Cards!):
SDer
我的联系方式:
bbs or x***[email protected]
Warranty期限:
till gone
能否证明是合 |
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b******d
发帖数: 43 | 41 我想卖的物品:
2 x San Diego Zoo Tickets
2 x San Diego Zoo Safari park tickets
免费赠送动物园内ride的买1送1的coupon (一共4张）
No black-out dates
Exp 2/28/2012
单张面值:
$40， total $160
可接受价格(必须明码标价！):
$20 each, must buy all $80
物品新旧要求:
new at hand
邮寄方式要求:
Free shipping USPS
买卖双方谁承担邮寄损失(Required if not code only):
default
付款方式说明:
Chase QuickPay/Citi/non-CC paypal
其他补充说明:
广告的有效期:
till sold
物品来源(Required for All Cards!):
Overbought
我的联系方式:
bbs mail
Warranty期限:
state and zip:
CA 921xx |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 42 the problem is not about how much the stock is worth, it is just overbought
now. it is simply the capital market rule |
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b******d
发帖数: 43 | 43 我想卖的物品:
2 x San Diego Zoo Tickets
2 x San Diego Zoo Safari park tickets
免费赠送动物园内ride的买1送1的coupon (一共4张）
No black-out dates
Exp 2/28/2012
单张面值:
$40， total $160
可接受价格(必须明码标价！):
$20 each, must buy all $80
物品新旧要求:
new at hand
邮寄方式要求:
Free shipping USPS
买卖双方谁承担邮寄损失(Required if not code only):
default
付款方式说明:
Chase QuickPay/Citi/non-CC paypal
其他补充说明:
广告的有效期:
till sold
物品来源(Required for All Cards!):
Overbought
我的联系方式:
bbs mail
Warranty期限:
state and zip:
CA 921xx |
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p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 44 My understanding on rebalance is:
(1) buy when oversold
(2) sell when overbought
(3) However, high could be higher high and low could be lower low, so I have
never all-in in one time, the % of every action is about 30% of position |
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c*****k
发帖数: 2080 | 45 没什么了，coke今天有个贴说了，简单看看就行。
首先说， 俺是会看下图的，但也就局限于：1，大趋势； 2，和前段时间的波动的配合
，比方说是螺旋上升还是螺旋下降； 3，短期图，不能画直线，一画直线趋势就死了（
很多TA派的追涨杀跌可能就是基于那么条线，所以手不快的话，其实就是去给人抬轿子
的），实际上一个基本的道理就是跌极必涨，涨极必跌，背后的意思就是oversold/
overbought的情况需要调和。所以短期的话，应该尝试去画正旋波。其实从周三开始，
DOW已经从上周五的逆转后升了500+点了，需要回调。所以那会看，应该是看跌的。
其次，看大势。这个大家都没什么意见吧，是熊市，就是说如果向下的话，肯定应是一
个不小的跌幅。那问什么不应该是小的correction呢？ 这个情况一定要去看经济基本
面。 承认与否，股市永远是经济的外衣，也就是说经济是本，股市是末。看看过去的
一周，从那个周五开始的经济数据，基本全是稀里哗啦。market肯定会反映这个情况，
不是不报，是时候不到。
三，再次看下这个反弹。本身俺觉得就是value investor进场捡便宜货，他们绝无动力
去推高市场 |
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q**********e
发帖数: 270 | 46 Mkt update:
DJI: 3 white soldiers pattern printed, basic up swing bullish tone is set,
but short term overbought, Facing immediately resistance at 11580 and 11650
Monday, a dip is set up for Monday and Tuesday, should last 2-3 sessions,
Dip could touch as low as 11090-11230. this will be a tradeable dip on DJI (
approx –500 move)
SPX: Over bought, resistance touched Friday high, correction coming: dip low
near 1224-1231.
COMPQ: first one kicked back at resistance, LL/LH after 3 white soldiers,
b |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 47 I like this uptrend so far, and today's action can be seen as a confirmation
. but a short term pullback is due. maybe will be led by overbought Finance. |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 48 plus stochastics crawling back to overbought territory while RSI looks like
shit. |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 49 股市还未到更超买(OverBought, i.e. -9% or thereabouts), 今天就提早开始大跌。
除非有强力人为因素，否则将意味市场实际情况比预测的还熊。
但既然跌了，根据过去情形，要到百分之加六以上(i.e. +6% or better)才有比较安全
的反弹。
所以心中估计目前市场可能还会再跌一两天，但这只是暂时的猜测，还要看最新的预测
给出的结果是如何，之后才会比较了解未来情况。 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 50
Politically speaking, you're right and I thought about that also.
But I was referring to the normal extreme zones of the forecast
readings.
The numbers did not reach there.
Not that I was surprised, since the market was overbought, though
certainly not extremely so, based on last night's forecasts, which
indicated a magnitude of 3.5 to 5% decline in the event of a price
decline. I would have preferred the percent to be closer to -9 or
better, for a good short-term sell signal.
If the sell-off |
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