h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 1 Rasmussen 和 Gallup 应该是两个最大的poll了。Rasmussen 的特点是又快又准，但是
变化剧烈。如果投票前Romney 能在 Rasmussen 领先3到5个点，把握比较大，否则还真
难说。 |
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w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 2 The Republican challenger has narrow leads in surveys of Florida, Colorado,
New Hampshire, and Virginia, more evidence that he benefited from last week'
s debate performance against President Obama.
Obama aides said they still like their positions in these key states.
Nationally, the Gallup daily tracking poll has Romney ahead 49%-47% among
likely voters, while Obama leads 48%-46% among registered voters.
Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard's Political Wire summarized some of the new state
surveys:
Colora... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 October 26, 2012 Posted by Warner Todd Huston
In keeping with the “Mittmentum” that we are seeing in many states and
swing states across the country, New Hampshire is for the first time looking
more like a lovely purple color tinged heavily in red with polls showing
Mitt Romney topping President Obama there for the first time.
With less than two weeks to go, historically blue New Hampshire is showing a
50% Romney to 48% Obama result in Rasmussen’s latest polling. Rasmussen
has shown a steady mo... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 4 https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-just-pulled-ahead-clinton-141951200
.html
Donald Trump just took the lead in a major national poll for the first time
in roughly six weeks.
In a Rasmussen poll released Thursday, Trump held a 4-point lead over
presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Of the 1,000 likely voters
surveyed, the presumptive Republican nominee won over 43% of support,
compared with Clinton's 39%.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll is the ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 5 October 25, 2016
November 8: Trump +5
By Andrew Grant White
Conventional wisdom says Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient
is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election, and
RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is
Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from
the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We
should be so lucky.
Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 6 October 25, 2016
November 8: Trump +5
By Andrew Grant White
Conventional wisdom says Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient
is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election, and
RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is
Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from
the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We
should be so lucky.
Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into... 阅读全帖 |
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s***5
发帖数: 453 | 7 https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/homenews/campaign/302571-are-the-polls-skewed
-against-trump
Want a tough job? Try being a pollster two weeks before Election Day.
Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are
biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling
surveys.
Conservative news sites have pounced on Trump’s arguments, pointing to a
trio of national polls that show the race between the Republican
presidential nominee and Democrat Hillary... 阅读全帖 |
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B*M
发帖数: 1418 | 8 SCIENTIFIC MISCONDUCT
Sabotaged Scientist Sues Yale and Her Lab Chief
Martin Enserink
When Magdalena Koziol suspected that someone was sabotaging her research at
Yale University, she did what comes naturally to a scientist: She set up a
controlled experiment to test her hypothesis.
Koziol's studies of how the genome switches on after an egg is fertilized
had begun failing mysteriously in July 2011, a month after she started her
postdoc in the developmental biology lab of Antonio Giraldez. In Aug... 阅读全帖 |
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l******8
发帖数: 9475 | 9 列出一些东西来供大家参考.
这是美国较有名的圣保罗警犬队的介绍.
捷克系不少, 荷兰也有. 从上面看, 美系德牧几乎全军覆没. 这难道不是AKC的悲哀
吗? 玩马犬的朋友也可高兴一下, 最后一只是马犬.
转自: http://animal.discovery.com/tv/k9-cops/bios/index-02.html
officer blumberg Officer Blumberg and Cobra
Officer Mark Blumberg has been a Police Officer since 1993. His K-9 partner
'Cobra' traveled from Holland in 2004 to join the St. Paul Police
Department's K-9 Unit. Cobra was purchased with funds donated to the St.
Paul Police K-9 Foundation and is trained in agility, tracking, evidence
r... 阅读全帖 |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 10 Ramssason and Galuup are among worst ones.
Here's the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favorable to Obama,
and polls without were more favorable to Romney):
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ An... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 11 都把话说开了。来电了，开打了。两个主权国家开打就有意思多了。
NATO on Friday accused Russia of a "blatant violation of Ukraine's
sovereignty" and urged it to immediately cease its "illegal military actions
" in eastern regions of the country.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said despite "hollow denials"
by Russia, it was clear it was involved in "direct military operations" in
Ukraine.
"We condemn in the strongest terms Russia’s continued disregard of its
international obligations. We urge Russia to cease its il... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 13 媒体中，Rasmussen算是极右，2012年一直预测Romney大胜，直到点票结束
这次Rasmussen也认为希拉里要赢了
因为差距实在太大了 |
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发帖数: 1 | 14 https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/04/politics/donald-trump-speech-nra/index.html
NN)On Friday, President Donald Trump traveled to Texas to address the annual
convention of the National Rifle Association.
The speech capped a week that included revelations about the questions
special counsel Robert Mueller wanted to ask Trump, allegations that Trump
had dictated a note to his doctor about his stellar health in 2016, Rudy
Giuliani's controversy-causing comments about the payout to porn star Stormy
Daniel... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 15 https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1185269623186440196
Upon taking office, new NATO Secretary General Rasmussen met Putin and
stated his goal was to increase cooperation with Russia. Putin responded
with a question. "Do you know my mission, Mr. Rasmussen? It is to make sure
that your organization no longer exists." |
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a***c
发帖数: 315 | 18 Rasmussen Consumer Index
After Wall Street Falls Nearly 800 Points, Consumer Confidence RISES
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Email a Friend Email to a Friend
Advertisement
Highlighting the gap between Main Street and Wall Street, the Rasmussen
Consumer Index shows consumer confidence gaining a point on Tuesday morning.
On the day after the economic “rescue” package failed in the House of
Representatives and the stock market fell 800 points, the Index shows that
consumer confidence rose for the thir |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 19 Rasmussen调查：83%美国人认为造成高赤字的原因政客不愿削减开支，9%认为纳税人不
愿负担更多税负要承担更大责任
With concerns about the economy and mounting federal deficits before them,
46% of voters nationwide favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans
. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 35%
oppose such a tax cut, and 19% are not sure.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters believe tax cuts help the economy, and 59%
say tax cuts are a better job-creation tool than increased government
spending.
Republicans f |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 20 Rasmussen调查：56%美国选民认为联邦政府“救助”金融机构是个坏主意，25%意见相反
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Looking back, voters remain unhappy with the government bailouts of the
financial industry and troubled automakers General Motors and Chrysler.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds
that just 25% say it was a good idea for the federal government to provide
bailout funding for banks and other financial institutions. Fifty-six
percent (56%) hold the opposite view and feel these bailouts were a |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 21 作者:Daniel Pipes 翻译:Liming Pals
2010-10-21 18:48:24
特雷-琼斯（Terry Jones）牧师计划在他所在的佛罗里达州盖恩斯维尔教会烧毁《古兰
经》。应该强调的是，这是一种令人厌恶的行为，符合一种丑陋的传统。但是这里还有
两点需要声明：在美国，购买书籍然后烧毁绝对是一个合法的行为。其次， David
Petraeus, Robert Gates, Eric Holder, 希拉里?克林顿和巴拉克?奥巴马促使琼斯取
消行动仅仅是因为，他们怕他这么做会导致穆斯林对美国人采取暴力行动。实际上，尽
管琼斯取消了烧古兰经的活动，也造成5名阿富汗人和 14名克什米尔人 在抗议琼斯计
划的示威游行中丧生。
暴力行动源于伊斯兰教法，即沙里亚法。这一法律坚持认为伊斯兰教，尤其是古兰经享
有特殊地位。伊斯兰教肆无忌惮地惩罚任何违反伊斯兰教神圣性的人，不论穆斯林还是
非穆斯林。穆斯林占大多数的国家中的法典通常反应了这一特权；比如， 巴基斯坦的
亵渎法律 295-C, 规定任何言论亵渎穆罕默德的人都应处以死刑。
不亚于此的是，沙里亚亵渎其它宗教的神圣性的传... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 22 By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com
on January 18, 2011
Printer-Friendly Version
Now for the counteroffensive. The House Republicans are pushing to repeal
ObamaCare. While they will doubtless succeed in the House and either fail in
the Senate or face an Obama veto, their decision to raise and debate the
issue is a crucial one. As happened when it passed last year, ObamaCare will
ignite a national controversy.
But are conservatives prepared to win the debate? When ObamaCare was being
pushed t... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 23 By RIAZ KHAN and SEBASTIAN ABBOT, Associated Press
November 27, 2011
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — Hundreds of trucks
carrying supplies to U.S.-led troops in Afghanistan backed up at Pakistani
border crossings Sunday, leaving them vulnerable to militant attack a day
after Islamabad closed the frontier in retaliation for coalition airstrikes
that allegedly killed 24 Pakistani troops.
As Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani attended the funerals of
the victims, inclu... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 What if the Obama Administration Declared the Global War on Terror over…
May 1, 2012 Posted by Rodney Graves
…and only 11% of the voting public believed them?
Wonder no more.
The claim:
Can Obama Safely Embrace Islamists?
By Michael Hirsh | NationalJournal
…
It is no longer the case, in other words, that every Islamist is seen as
a potential accessory to terrorists. ”The war on terror is over,” one
senior State Department official who works on Mideast issues told me. “Now
that ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖 |
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m******O
发帖数: 596 | 26 至少上个月在FL的调查，Rasmussen显示的是Romney当时落后两个百分点。所以你说“
Rasmussen never showed Romney losing”是不对的。 |
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b****y
发帖数: 1010 | 27 上届 rasmussen 不是最准的。根本排不进前三名。
最后结果 45.7 ：52.9, 相差7.2%
CNN 46： 53 7%
IPsos 46: 53 7%
ARG 45： 53 8%
这三个， 应该是前三名。
rasmussen 46： 52 6% |
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b****y
发帖数: 1010 | 28 显然， 你google，但是， research做的不细。
11/05 公布的6.15% 是初步结果。 最终结果是 7.2%.
“ An initial Nov.5, 2008 Fordham University analysis ranked 23 survey
research organizations on the accuracy of their final, national pre-election
polls, assuming a 6.15% margin of victory by Obama. Rasmussen Reports and
Pew Research Center tied as the most accurate.[42] Obama's actual margin was
7.2%, and a complete analysis published in 2009 by the same author, Costas
Panagopoulos, revealed Rasmussen to be tied for 9th most accura... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 29 rasmussen 2004 和2008 都是最准的single national poll，这些州poll 一般不如
national poll 准。如果最后rasmussen 和RCP average 都看出某人有1。5% 以上的优
势，他就应该能赢选举人票。 |
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b****y
发帖数: 1010 | 30 Rasmussen在04年，08年不是预测最准的机构， 08年连前三名都进不了。
08年最后结果 M 45.7 ：O 52.9, 相差7.2%
CNN 46： 53 7%
IPsos 46: 53 7%
ARG 45： 53 8%
这三个， 应该是前三名。
rasmussen的结果 46： 52 6%
04 年， 最终结果差2.5%。 最好的机构是TIPP（2%）和PEW（3%）。 |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 31 Ramssason and Gallup are among worst ones.
Here's the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favorable to Obama,
and polls without were more favorable to Romney):
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ A... 阅读全帖 |
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b****y
发帖数: 1010 | 32 Rasmussen error 4.2, R+3.7
在23个poll中是倒数第四。
我在版上提醒过好几次， 根据以往的经验，不要太相信Rasmussen。 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 33 by Larry Thornberry
Scott Rasmussen and his poling outfit do an excellent job of keeping us up
to date with who’s on first in our national elections. Other times he peels
down unto the culture to bring us such jewels as this morning’s findings
that 69 percent of American adults are following reporting on the demise of
the company that made Hostess Twinkies. A remarkable 31 percent of Americans
(many of them with crumbs on their shirt-fronts) tell Rasmussen they are
following the story “very clos... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 34 by Jammie
It’s a resounding victory at that considering he and his party’s intention
is fomenting racial hatred and animosity 24/7/365. All you had to do was
watch two minutes of the ugly spectacle in Washington on Wednesday and you
couldn’t possibly come away thinking anything has improved since he’s
occupied the White House.
The nation’s first black president has failed to improve race relations
, with just 10 percent believing that President Obama has helped to foster a
better black-white... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 35 A new Rasmussen poll finds that 58% of voters, an all-time high, oppose
ObamaCare’s requirement that every American be covered by health insurance.
Last week, for the second month in a row, 51% of respondents also said they
think health care will decline because of ObamaCare.
It doesn’t seem to matter whether those who think the quality of health
care will decline are insured or not; 50% of insured voters believe it will
decline while 45% of uninsured voters agree. Only 19% of respondents think
... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 36 A Rasmussen poll finds that voters approve of the U.S. Supreme Court’s
Hobby Lobby decision by a 10-point margin.
Results of the survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters indicate that 49 percent
of those polled agree that business owners should have the option of
exempting themselves from ObamaCare’s HHS contraceptive mandate if it
violates their religious beliefs. By comparison, 39 percent oppose the high
court’s decision and 12 percent are undecided.
In addition, the poll found that 58 percent of vo... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********h
发帖数: 1001 | 37 http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/262926-p
Seventy percent of Republican voters believe Donald Trump will be the GOP
presidential nominee in 2016, according to a new poll from the conservative-
leaning Rasmussen Reports.
Approximately 31 percent say Trump is “very likely” to win the GOP nod,
while just 21 percent say he is “unlikely” to be the party's nominee. Ten
percent say Trump is “not at all likely" to be the nominee.
Those who support Trump's controversial call for a t... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 38 President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 47,
Disapprove 52 Disapprove +5
Direction of Country Rasmussen Reports Right Direction 28, Wrong
Track 65 Wrong Track +37 |
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b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 40 Rasmussen Reports 7/29 - 7/31 1500 LV 3.0 44 47 Romney +3
Gallup 7/24 - 7/31 3050 RV 2.0 47 45 Obama +2
Pew Research 7/16 - 7/26 1956 RV 3.2 51 41 Obama +10
Democracy Corps (D) 7/21 - 7/25 700 LV 3.7 50 46 Obama +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 7/18 - 7/22 1000 RV 3.1 49 43 Obama
+6
FOX News 7/15 - 7/17 901 RV 3.0 45 41 Obama +4
CBS News/NY Times 7/11 - 7/16 942 RV 3.0 46 47 Rom... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 41 2016 looks like a repeat of 1980
You probably remember that in September 1980 voters were couldn’t wait to
cast a vote for Reagan.
If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong.
TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue.
Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed
Magnuson summarized the voters of 1980:
Disenchanted, but not apathetic. Caring about issues, although much more
concerned about character. Lo... 阅读全帖 |
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R*********4
发帖数: 293 | 43 哈哈，笑死我了。
之前 LA领先时，好多人说，LA是最准的,LA希拉里领先了就没人提了。
现在来了个Rasmussen，就说Rasmussen是最准的。 |
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v*******n
发帖数: 8995 | 44 可惜rasmussen poll川普有掉了两点。
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson CNN/ORC Clinton 48,
Trump 47, Johnson 4 Clinton +1
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 45,
Clinton 45, Johnson 6, Stein 1 Tie
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CNN/ORC Trump 48,
Clinton 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Trump +4
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Clinton 48
, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs.... 阅读全帖 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 45 President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 52, Disapprove 46
Approve +6
Direction of Country Rasmussen Reports Right Direction 31, Wrong Track 63
Wrong Track +32
很多poll都是这副熊样。到底啥意思？哪位能给解释一下？ |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 46 大选看民调时，先看Rasmussen，如果Rasmussen打平或者民主党领先，那民主党肯定赢
。不信去查历史数据 |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 47 一个是 Rasmussen，这个民调不是最准的，但是最稳定的：每次大选都偏向共和党。最
新的 Rasmussen，希拉里领先2%，所以稳赢了。
另一个民调是 surveymonkey，这是 online poll 的代表，今年准确的预测了 Brexit
。surveymonkey 的样本有七万多，很庞大。很多支持川普的人认为他有很多调查不到
的支持者，一个依据就是电话民调的 social desirability bias，也就是说有些选民
难以启齿说支持某个候选人。在online poll 里这个bias很小，这也是川普在初选和5,
6月份时 在 online polls的表现好于电话民调。但是，由于希拉里自身的问题，这个
trend反了过来，希拉里在online polls里的表现超过电话民调。最新的 surveymonkey
民调里，希拉里领先6%。是不是 landslide，拭目以待 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 48 misrepresent polling data
Miss X: "I read a CNN poll that was taken on June 26 and 28th, and I know
that the hearing for the case, the fire fighters case was on the 29th, so
the poll was done right before it, and those are still the poll results we'
re reporting, so I asked someone in DC who does the poll results about why
we hadn't updated it, and said there were a few newer polls from last week
and the week before and there's CBS news polls and a Rasmussen poll, and he
said we don't use Rasmus... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 49 Rasmussen应该是去年大选最准的民调，说老头普选票输两个点，选举人票能赢。
Monday, April 24, 2017
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that
51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.
Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. Overall approval of the president’s
performance is at its highest level since early March. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 50 No Impact: Trump Jr. Nonsense “Scandal” Has No Impact On Polls
By Dick Morris on July 12, 2017
The latest no substance scandal to preoccupy Washington — the emails of
Donald Trump Jr. — is having no impact on his father’s job approval in any
of the recent polls.
Rasmussen Reports, the only poll to survey likely voters, has Trump’s job
approval at 45% (July 9-11), exactly the same as it has been for the past
two months. In fact, Rasmussen’s average rating for Trump job approval has
been averaging... 阅读全帖 |
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