g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 1 (1) 泡沫: 股市, bit frothy有点泡沫:房市
(2) 全球余震: 投资者预期美国更高的回报，从新兴市场自己的钱拿出来
(3) 稀缺的工作机会
(4) 政治干预
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(1) Bubbles. They’re hard to spot when you’re in them, but there certainly
is some risk that artificially low interest rates have pushed stock prices
a lot higher than they’d be otherwise. Bernard Baumohl of the Economic
Outlook Group points out that margin debt—which is basically borrowed money
used to buy stocks--is at an all-time high of $445 billion, driven at least
in part by bullish investors who felt Fed policies would continue to push
up stock prices.
“A major pullback in the stock market could create serious financial
strains for those borrowers,” Baumohl writes. Margin calls, when brokers
call in the collateral that backs margin debt, are one of the things that
could intensify a stock market correction, turning it into a bursting bubble.
It seems less likely there’s a bubble in house prices too. Double-digit
increases during the past year may have been a bit frothy. Many investors
anticipated some leveling of stock and real-estate prices once Fed policy
pivoted. The real problem for Yellen would be a market overreaction that
begins to depress confidence and activity in the real economy, perhaps even
requiring a return to easier Fed policies.
(2) Global aftershocks. The Fed is so powerful that its policies affect
markets in many countries other than the United States. The latest shift in
Fed policy, for instance, is partly responsible for the sudden outflow of
money from emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina and South Africa, as
investors anticipate higher returns in the United States and take their
money out of riskier investments. Emerging market turmoil, in turn, is
pushing down stock prices in the United States and Europe.
(3) Scarce jobs. Part of the Fed’s mission is to pursue policies meant to
foster maximum employment. The problem is that the Fed doesn’t seem to have
the tools to do that. The unemployment rate, now 6.7%, has obviously come
down since peaking at 10% in 2010, yet the pace of improvement seems glacial
given that the Fed basically threw everything it had at the problem. The
risk now is that the Fed may have to raise rates, as a bulwark against
inflation, before the labor market is convincingly healed. “Catcalls will
come from the left if Yellen determines that tighter monetary policy is
needed to head off inflation, even while the unemployment rate remains high,”
(4) Political meddling. The Fed is supposed to be independent of the
political process, and Bernanke generally had a free hand to do as he wished
. That could change if Bernanke’s policies produce high inflation or other
consequences that seem unusually harmful. Some Fed critics feel the central
bank should focus only on inflation and forget about employment, while
others feel Fed policy should be less subjective and more beholden to firm
rules that would dictate policy, almost like an algorithm.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/4-big-challenges-fo | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 2 自2009年以来, FED泵出大量的资金. 其中一些进入股市，一些进入新兴国家.
吹大二泡沫. 与此同时，阻止房市泡沫继续破裂.
目前，美联储正在改变其方向, 二大泡沫开始破裂.
另外一个泡沫, 也许,可能 继续其中断的进程.(伤感情, 所以很多人只是轻轻一提)
certainly
prices
money
least
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: (1) 泡沫: 股市, bit frothy有点泡沫:房市
: (2) 全球余震: 投资者预期美国更高的回报，从新兴市场自己的钱拿出来
: (3) 稀缺的工作机会
: (4) 政治干预
: -----------------------------------
: (1) Bubbles. They’re hard to spot when you’re in them, but there certainly
: is some risk that artificially low interest rates have pushed stock prices
: a lot higher than they’d be otherwise. Bernard Baumohl of the Economic
: Outlook Group points out that margin debt—which is basically borrowed money
: used to buy stocks--is at an all-time high of $445 billion, driven at least
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