A****S
发帖数: 978 | 1 1. In January 2011 inventory report, there are 7800 ROW EB2 pending.
2. From October 2010 to January 2011, not too many ROW EB2 were approved. If
you compare the inventory between Oct. 2010 and January 2011, you will find
out the ROW EB2 number changed 1000. Although it's possible some people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not be
approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's EB2
quota. The only exception is that he/she uses PP. Just assume 3k people use
PP service.
4. If they can clean all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, the total ROW consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
Total Spill over should be around:
40000-3000(first quarter)--7800(ROW Jan.inventory)-3000 (people use PP)-5600
(EB2 C&I quota)=20000.
5. EB1's 140 approval time increased since August 2010. Many EB1 are still
pending. Some EB1 people used PP service and they got GC quickly, but many
people with PD of August 2010 are still pending. I think EB1 should give us
10k leftover this year. It's very likely the EB1 leftover will be close to 20k.
I think we will have at least 30k-40k Spillover this year. Let's keep our
fingers crossed! |
n***s
发帖数: 10056 | 2 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not
be approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's
EB2 quota.
That slow? wow. dan, that's good. |
n***s
发帖数: 10056 | 3 I think we will have at least 30k-40k Spillover this year. Let's keep our
fingers crossed! |
s******0
发帖数: 1340 | |
h*e
发帖数: 10233 | |
g******i
发帖数: 1942 | 6 YY.
【在 h*e 的大作中提到】
: 这是yy还是真的？懂行的出来说一下？
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 7 我觉得也是。
【在 g******i 的大作中提到】
: YY.
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 8 These are facts, not YY.
【在 g******i 的大作中提到】
: YY.
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | |
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 10 Currently many EB2 are waiting for 8-9 months for 140 approval. They are
still processing 140 received at August 2010.
【在 n***s 的大作中提到】
: 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not
: be approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's
: EB2 quota.
: That slow? wow. dan, that's good.
|
|
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 11 20k will move the PD to 2007.
【在 n***s 的大作中提到】
: I think we will have at least 30k-40k Spillover this year. Let's keep our
: fingers crossed!
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 12 Last year we were supposed to get more spillover.
The main reason was that PERM approval speed went up in 2010, thus the PD
didn't move to 2007. However, the spillover number was still over 20k.
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 去年形势大好，最后多少个SO？
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 13 去年PERM肯定不如今年PERM批的快吧？
不知道今年EB1/EB2 ROW批的快不快了。。。
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: Last year we were supposed to get more spillover.
: The main reason was that PERM approval speed went up in 2010, thus the PD
: didn't move to 2007. However, the spillover number was still over 20k.
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 14 Last year EB2 ROW's PERM was fast, 140 was even faster!
Last year somebody got 140 approved in 7 days!
Many ROW EB2 could get PERM approved in 10 days, 140 in 7 days!
Most of ROW EB2 could get GC in 30-50 days!
This year the ROW EB2 PERM speed is almost the same with the spring&summer
of 2010, but the 140 speed is much lower than the spring&summer of 2010.
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 去年PERM肯定不如今年PERM批的快吧？
: 不知道今年EB1/EB2 ROW批的快不快了。。。
|
l****6
发帖数: 159 | 15 Where is your information coming from? However, my lawyer agree that current
EB1 are very difficult to apply.
If
find
their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
be
use
consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is
that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total
consumption may be less than 13800.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 1. In January 2011 inventory report, there are 7800 ROW EB2 pending.
: 2. From October 2010 to January 2011, not too many ROW EB2 were approved. If
: you compare the inventory between Oct. 2010 and January 2011, you will find
: out the ROW EB2 number changed 1000. Although it's possible some people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not be
: approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's EB2
: quota. The only exception is that he/she uses PP. Just assume 3k people use
: PP service.
: 4. If they can clean all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, the total ROW consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
: Total Spill over should be around:
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 16 不错的数据
对于拿名额来说，更重要的是EB2 ROW的485多快下来吧？就算他们concurrent filing
，140和485许多时候不是同时批的。。。
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: Last year EB2 ROW's PERM was fast, 140 was even faster!
: Last year somebody got 140 approved in 7 days!
: Many ROW EB2 could get PERM approved in 10 days, 140 in 7 days!
: Most of ROW EB2 could get GC in 30-50 days!
: This year the ROW EB2 PERM speed is almost the same with the spring&summer
: of 2010, but the 140 speed is much lower than the spring&summer of 2010.
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 17 All the information is public information.
I did careful research using the data from Trackitt.
Not a single EB2 with PD later than Nov.2010 got their GC yet!
Among all the EB2 ROW approved, only 5 of them have PD later than Oct.2010.
My research conclusion is that:
1. Basically ROW EB2 with PD later than January 2011 have very slim chance
to get their GC in FY 2011.
2. ROW EB2 with PD between Oct.2010 and Dec.2010 will have some chance to
get their GC in FY 2011, but it's 50% only.
current
and
quarter
.
【在 l****6 的大作中提到】
: Where is your information coming from? However, my lawyer agree that current
: EB1 are very difficult to apply.
:
: If
: find
: their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
: Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
: consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
: approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: be
|
e******e
发帖数: 10121 | |
c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 19 俺其实是个乐观派，但是经过了去年形势一片大好，然后发现仍然
遥遥无期的现实后，觉得好消息一般都得打个3折再研究。要是真有
30k的SO，PD在2010后的今年都可以递485了。
可问题是连我自己都知道这是绝对不可能发生的。。。。。。 |
l****6
发帖数: 159 | 20 That is impossible. Even we have 30000 spill over number, EB2C and EB2I only
reach 2007/3.
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 俺其实是个乐观派，但是经过了去年形势一片大好，然后发现仍然
: 遥遥无期的现实后，觉得好消息一般都得打个3折再研究。要是真有
: 30k的SO，PD在2010后的今年都可以递485了。
: 可问题是连我自己都知道这是绝对不可能发生的。。。。。。
|
|
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 21 yeah,
if we have 30k, we can only reach April 2007.
There are tons of EB2 waiting between 2007.07-now.
It will take a long long time to reach PD 2011.03.
If we have 30k this year, at least 2006-2007 people will beneft from it.
only
【在 l****6 的大作中提到】
: That is impossible. Even we have 30000 spill over number, EB2C and EB2I only
: reach 2007/3.
|
j**i
发帖数: 419 | 22 how can we gurantee no quote is wasted? especially EB2C's Own Quota... |
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 23 30K all for chinese, not for India?
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: yeah,
: if we have 30k, we can only reach April 2007.
: There are tons of EB2 waiting between 2007.07-now.
: It will take a long long time to reach PD 2011.03.
: If we have 30k this year, at least 2006-2007 people will beneft from it.
:
: only
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 24 The main reason for wasting quota was that USCIS didn't review enough cases
to use quota.
It only happened before 2007.
From 2007 they never wasted any visa because they started the practice of "
pre adjusted". They have reviewed enough EB2 C&I cases in advance. All these
cases are ready for approval once the quota is available.
【在 j**i 的大作中提到】
: how can we gurantee no quote is wasted? especially EB2C's Own Quota...
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 25 30k for both India and China.
【在 T******r 的大作中提到】
: 30K all for chinese, not for India?
|
T******r
发帖数: 2937 | 26 thanks, hope 30k is true
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 30k for both India and China.
|
n***s
发帖数: 10056 | 27 Do you know what percentage of EB2ers use Trackiit?
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: All the information is public information.
: I did careful research using the data from Trackitt.
: Not a single EB2 with PD later than Nov.2010 got their GC yet!
: Among all the EB2 ROW approved, only 5 of them have PD later than Oct.2010.
: My research conclusion is that:
: 1. Basically ROW EB2 with PD later than January 2011 have very slim chance
: to get their GC in FY 2011.
: 2. ROW EB2 with PD between Oct.2010 and Dec.2010 will have some chance to
: get their GC in FY 2011, but it's 50% only.
:
|
j**i
发帖数: 419 | 28 我指的是China在SPILL over之前能先用完自己名额吗？
1.本年度到现在中国才批一千多？
2.spill over开始前能用完2800吗？
不要把自己名额拿出来和烙印分！ |
T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 29 Cheers! Thank you!
Oct.2010.
chance
chance to
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: All the information is public information.
: I did careful research using the data from Trackitt.
: Not a single EB2 with PD later than Nov.2010 got their GC yet!
: Among all the EB2 ROW approved, only 5 of them have PD later than Oct.2010.
: My research conclusion is that:
: 1. Basically ROW EB2 with PD later than January 2011 have very slim chance
: to get their GC in FY 2011.
: 2. ROW EB2 with PD between Oct.2010 and Dec.2010 will have some chance to
: get their GC in FY 2011, but it's 50% only.
:
|
Q*K
发帖数: 3464 | 30 这么多人在这里yy
慢慢enjoy yy
If
find
their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
be
use
consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is
that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total
consumption may be less than 13800.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 1. In January 2011 inventory report, there are 7800 ROW EB2 pending.
: 2. From October 2010 to January 2011, not too many ROW EB2 were approved. If
: you compare the inventory between Oct. 2010 and January 2011, you will find
: out the ROW EB2 number changed 1000. Although it's possible some people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not be
: approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's EB2
: quota. The only exception is that he/she uses PP. Just assume 3k people use
: PP service.
: 4. If they can clean all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, the total ROW consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
: Total Spill over should be around:
|
|
|
j****r
发帖数: 200 | 31 It is not right to calculate this way. The pending number for ROW is
far less than the approved number. The majority of cases are not even
listed as pending before they are approved. So using pending inventory
can't give us an estimate about the usage of ROW EB2. If you have the
perm number approved for ROW EB2, it might be more informative.
I hope more SO for us, but I don't think your calculation is correct.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
approved. If
will find
people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between
Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume
the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows
that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases
with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
can not be
year's EB2
people use
consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The
reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2,
so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 1. In January 2011 inventory report, there are 7800 ROW EB2 pending.
: 2. From October 2010 to January 2011, not too many ROW EB2 were approved. If
: you compare the inventory between Oct. 2010 and January 2011, you will find
: out the ROW EB2 number changed 1000. Although it's possible some people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not be
: approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's EB2
: quota. The only exception is that he/she uses PP. Just assume 3k people use
: PP service.
: 4. If they can clean all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, the total ROW consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
: Total Spill over should be around:
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 32 My calculation is correct.
The total number of EB2 ROW approved in the first quarter
=the inventory number change + the new ROW EB2 submitted in the first
quarter.
The inventory number change is 1000. The only possible variable is the ROW
EB2 submitted in the first quarter. I assumed 3000. It is possible this number is a little low, but my formula/logic is correct. In fact, I think 3000 should be very close to reality.
【在 j****r 的大作中提到】
: It is not right to calculate this way. The pending number for ROW is
: far less than the approved number. The majority of cases are not even
: listed as pending before they are approved. So using pending inventory
: can't give us an estimate about the usage of ROW EB2. If you have the
: perm number approved for ROW EB2, it might be more informative.
: I hope more SO for us, but I don't think your calculation is correct.
: Please correct me if I am wrong.
:
: approved. If
: will find
|
I******y
发帖数: 815 | 33 I-140 standard timeframe is 4 months. I-485 is a little longer at TSC and
should be 4 month also.
TSC is speeding up now. for example.
EB1A 140和485不到两个月都批准了, 附timeline
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Immigration/31920987.html
There is one EB1 get both I-140 and 485 in 2 months. EB2-Row will speed up
in the next few months. |
a****l
发帖数: 8211 | 34 中印eb2能批准的数量是可以用inventory来估计的,但是row是不能的,因为row现在是C,
所以是随进随出的.夸张的说,可能一天就批掉7800个,然后第二天再来7800个,再一天批
掉,结果随便你哪天看,存货都有7800个,实际批准的数字呢?
If
find
their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
be
use
consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is
that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total
consumption may be less than 13800.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 1. In January 2011 inventory report, there are 7800 ROW EB2 pending.
: 2. From October 2010 to January 2011, not too many ROW EB2 were approved. If
: you compare the inventory between Oct. 2010 and January 2011, you will find
: out the ROW EB2 number changed 1000. Although it's possible some people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not be
: approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's EB2
: quota. The only exception is that he/she uses PP. Just assume 3k people use
: PP service.
: 4. If they can clean all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, the total ROW consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
: Total Spill over should be around:
|
l****6
发帖数: 159 | 35 全世界的名额确实与数据库无关，不过现在处理时间加长对06老排期是有好处的。一旦
这批人过去以后，后面办
绿卡的少，也不会拍很多年了
C,
and
quarter
.
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 中印eb2能批准的数量是可以用inventory来估计的,但是row是不能的,因为row现在是C,
: 所以是随进随出的.夸张的说,可能一天就批掉7800个,然后第二天再来7800个,再一天批
: 掉,结果随便你哪天看,存货都有7800个,实际批准的数字呢?
:
: If
: find
: their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
: Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
: consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
: approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
|
a****l
发帖数: 8211 | 36 话虽如此,但是还是最好不要这么想,karma还是需要注意的.
【在 l****6 的大作中提到】
: 全世界的名额确实与数据库无关，不过现在处理时间加长对06老排期是有好处的。一旦
: 这批人过去以后，后面办
: 绿卡的少，也不会拍很多年了
:
: C,
: and
: quarter
: .
|
r*******3
发帖数: 711 | 37 我每次看到“Quota“， 就想起USCIS某人的无耻嘴脸。说每年2860是”limit“，不是
”quota“，言外之意就是即使一个名额没给我们，他本人也是无懈可击的。这个歧视
是吃果果得。
cases
these
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: The main reason for wasting quota was that USCIS didn't review enough cases
: to use quota.
: It only happened before 2007.
: From 2007 they never wasted any visa because they started the practice of "
: pre adjusted". They have reviewed enough EB2 C&I cases in advance. All these
: cases are ready for approval once the quota is available.
|
C******e
发帖数: 1850 | 38 俺有个问题，如果EB1C没用完名额，那么剩下的是EB2C独享呢还是要和三哥瓜分？ |
k*******0
发帖数: 256 | 39 Some thoughts, not mean to upset you: I am more inclined to what julyer said
. many EB2ROW may not be listed in the inventory. if you approval number is
from CIS official number, then it would great. also submitted, do we have
officail number from CIS?
Regarding trackitt, how many ROW really care about it and put thier case
there? how many would go there update once approved?
number is a little low, but my formula/logic is correct. In fact, I think
3000 should be very close to reality.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: My calculation is correct.
: The total number of EB2 ROW approved in the first quarter
: =the inventory number change + the new ROW EB2 submitted in the first
: quarter.
: The inventory number change is 1000. The only possible variable is the ROW
: EB2 submitted in the first quarter. I assumed 3000. It is possible this number is a little low, but my formula/logic is correct. In fact, I think 3000 should be very close to reality.
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 40 3 months ago I did this data analysis and nobody believed me.
now all my predictions are coming true.
If
find
their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
be
use
consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is
that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total
consumption may be less than 13800.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 1. In January 2011 inventory report, there are 7800 ROW EB2 pending.
: 2. From October 2010 to January 2011, not too many ROW EB2 were approved. If
: you compare the inventory between Oct. 2010 and January 2011, you will find
: out the ROW EB2 number changed 1000. Although it's possible some people (their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2 approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: 3. If a ROW EB2 submit his/her 140 after January 2011, his/her 140 can not be
: approved until September 2011, thus he/she can not consume this year's EB2
: quota. The only exception is that he/she uses PP. Just assume 3k people use
: PP service.
: 4. If they can clean all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, the total ROW consumption this year will be 7800 plus 3000 plus 3000=13800. The reality is that they can not clean up all the 7800 inventory ROW EB2, so the total consumption may be less than 13800.
: Total Spill over should be around:
|
|
|
w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 41 别挖坟了，这样也不好。
我觉得像你和P8388这种喜欢做数据分析的牛人，应该加入到NIU组织中来，我们可以利
用这些分析
数据做一些 strategic move 进而联系和督促O某，以便争取对中国移民有利的排期进
度安排。不
知你怎么看。
Oct.2010 and
quarter
EB2
Oct.2010.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: 3 months ago I did this data analysis and nobody believed me.
: now all my predictions are coming true.
:
: If
: find
: their PERM were auditted or delayed) submitted 140/485 between Oct.2010 and
: Jan.2011, the number should be 2000 or less. Let's assume the first quarter
: consumption is 3000. Additionally trackitt shows that most of the ROW EB2
: approved in the first quarter were the cases with PD earlier than Oct.2010.
: be
|
