f*****s
发帖数: 22 | 1 According to the AILA, Mr. Charles Oppenheim predicts the following:
India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two
months before slow down or holding towards the end of this fiscal year (09/
30/2015)
India EB-3: Just one or two weeks movement per month
China EB-2: Some movement may be possible, but should excessive demand takes
place, some move-back can be considered.
China EB-3: Not too promising.
China EB-5: Retrogression in June or earlier.
Worldwide EB-3: Another big move ahead in May. However, may not see "current
" within this fiscal year.
不是太乐观啊。 |
M**********o
发帖数: 203 | |
c*******s
发帖数: 71 | 3 As I expect, EB2 will retrogress soon for sure |
z******y
发帖数: 969 | |
o*******4
发帖数: 313 | 5 China EB-2: Some movement may be possible, but should excessive demand takes
place, some move-back can be considered.
这是五月就要退吗？又悲剧了？ |
Z******a
发帖数: 1178 | |
o*******4
发帖数: 313 | 7 China EB-2: Some movement may be possible, but should excessive demand takes
place, some move-back can be considered.
India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two
months before slow down or holding towards the end of this fiscal year
我觉得这个说不过去了。印度不管怎么算都比我们人多太多，他这样区别对待怕是不好
吧？ |
M**********o
发帖数: 203 | 8 Second your statement!
【在 z******y 的大作中提到】
: 奥本说话跟放P一样。 前几次有哪次准的？
|
o*******4
发帖数: 313 | |
y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 10 人家又SO...
takes
【在 o*******4 的大作中提到】
: China EB-2: Some movement may be possible, but should excessive demand takes
: place, some move-back can be considered.
: India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two
: months before slow down or holding towards the end of this fiscal year
: 我觉得这个说不过去了。印度不管怎么算都比我们人多太多，他这样区别对待怕是不好
: 吧？
|
|
|
f*****s
发帖数: 22 | |
K**I
发帖数: 176 | 12 我顶你！SB奥本
【在 z******y 的大作中提到】
: 奥本说话跟放P一样。 前几次有哪次准的？
|
o*******4
发帖数: 313 | 13 谢谢楼主分享。
这一段话里两个typo，有点让人好奇source的准确性。 |
b****h
发帖数: 2105 | 14 His job is to make EBC clueless. I can say he did well this time as always
takes
current
【在 f*****s 的大作中提到】
: According to the AILA, Mr. Charles Oppenheim predicts the following:
: India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two
: months before slow down or holding towards the end of this fiscal year (09/
: 30/2015)
: India EB-3: Just one or two weeks movement per month
: China EB-2: Some movement may be possible, but should excessive demand takes
: place, some move-back can be considered.
: China EB-3: Not too promising.
: China EB-5: Retrogression in June or earlier.
: Worldwide EB-3: Another big move ahead in May. However, may not see "current
|
s**i
发帖数: 271 | 15 这个我不同意。NIU和很多人在幕后做了许多工作，让奥本改变了之前的预测。
如果我们不做任何事的话，也许下几个月的排期就如老奥自己的估计一样了。
板上的几位女将尤其厉害，希望她们能再次出手。
【在 z******y 的大作中提到】
: 奥本说话跟放P一样。 前几次有哪次准的？
|
a****e
发帖数: 1560 | 16 以往的类似预测，大家看准吗？
--------------------------------------------------
02/13/2015: Oppenheim Reportedly Confirmed Continuing Movement of EB-2 Cut-
Off Date for India Ahead, Albeit Limited
As we reportd on 02/09/2015, unlike other previous years, the EB-2 cut-off
date for India is likely to continously move forward each month after March,
even though the movement can be somewhat limited. This prediction is
confirmed by the AILA's contact with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department.
--------------------------------------------------
01/13/2015: EB-2 India Cut-Off Date May Only Move Upto Summer 2009 by the
End of FY-2015 (September 2015)?
AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that
unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six
months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently,
this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama
's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and
the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians.
Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz
removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this
prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.
------------------------------------------------
01/09/2015: State Department Prediction of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Coming
Months
FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)
Worldwide dates:
F1: Up to three weeks
F2A: Three or four weeks
F2B: Three to six weeks
F3: Up to three weeks
F4: Two to four weeks
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
EB-1: Current
EB-2:
Worldwide: Current
China: Three to six weeks
India: Four to six months
EB-3:
Worldwide: Rapid forward movement for at least another month or two. The
rapid movement in recent months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. Once such demand materialize at the anticipated rate it
will have a direct impact on this cut-off date.
China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result in a
dramatic increase in demand which could require "corrective" action within
the next six months.
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may require
"corrective" action at some point later in the fiscal year.
EB-4: Current
EB-5: Current - for most countries. The expected increase in China-mainland
born demand would require the establishment of a cut-off date for such
applicants no later than the summer months.
The category will remain "Current" for all other countries
for the foreseeable future.
-------------------------------------------------
12/17/2014: State Department to Release Immigrant Visa Movement Predictions
in the February 2015 Visa Bulletin
According to the AILA, Mr. Oppenheim is expected to release this valuable
information in February Visa Bulletin for the immigrant visa waiters in all
different categories and in all different countries. Since the February Visa
Bulletin is expected to be released in the first two weeks of January 2015,
immigrants will be able to get the information fairly soon. However, there
appears to be no exciting information for EB-2 immigrants since the changes
usually happen only the last quarter (July-September) of a fiscal year not
to waste any visa numbers. But who knows? Please wait and see. |
f*c
发帖数: 2726 | 17 but should excessive demand takes place, some move-back can be considered.这
句是套话吧，现在不可能有 excessive demand， 有的话当然退了
takes
【在 o*******4 的大作中提到】
: China EB-2: Some movement may be possible, but should excessive demand takes
: place, some move-back can be considered.
: India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two
: months before slow down or holding towards the end of this fiscal year
: 我觉得这个说不过去了。印度不管怎么算都比我们人多太多，他这样区别对待怕是不好
: 吧？
|
B*****o
发帖数: 661 | 18 屁民都能知道政府想干什么，政府就没工作了。
政府的存在目的是愚民。
这样才能体现他们的权利和作用。
【在 b****h 的大作中提到】
: His job is to make EBC clueless. I can say he did well this time as always
:
: takes
: current
|
P****1
发帖数: 760 | 19 2类还会继续进,但也不是象傻逼一样的,还会结合数据来; 3类不会退,但也不会大进,可
能不动,甚至进一点点(他尽量避谈,因为没数据支持)。觉得他这次预测不算太悲观, 主
要是说印度。中国这边捎带着提一句废话而已。系统乱, 数据延迟/乱,他对中国2,3类
都会趋于更加保守。 |
