F*******e
发帖数: 485 | 1 从历史看，通胀是趋势，通缩是暂时的。总觉得下一轮通胀会格外厉害，虽不至于
hyperinflation。等到credit crunch结束，新一轮loan开始，而以前印的天文数字的
钞票不能有效回笼。
就是不知道什么时候开始，开始之前都有哪些迹象，也好有个准备啊。 | b****e
发帖数: 460 | 2 自从有了那个同性恋以后，印钱是肯定的，而且是永远的
买房地产，买股票都是抵御通胀的办法
当然能有份工作也是能抵御通胀的
说到迹象，没有什么迹象，政府天天印钱，m3早就不报了
有关通胀，个人有两个观点
第一手头一定要有一周之内甚至当天就能到位的现金，现今就是王
第二通胀是长期存在短期爆发的，最好的抵御通胀的办法是优秀的企业和自己不断能赚
钱，而金银长期来讲不能抵御通胀，短期可以炒炒。房子，在个人财政安全的情况下也
还是不错的选择。但是，一个事实是当年曼哈顿卖了24美元，而这24美元如果8%的回报
到今天，能买下不止一个曼哈顿。也就是说，房子不是一个最好的选择，只能说是不错
的选择。
【在 F*******e 的大作中提到】
: 从历史看，通胀是趋势，通缩是暂时的。总觉得下一轮通胀会格外厉害，虽不至于
: hyperinflation。等到credit crunch结束，新一轮loan开始，而以前印的天文数字的
: 钞票不能有效回笼。
: 就是不知道什么时候开始，开始之前都有哪些迹象，也好有个准备啊。
| F*******e
发帖数: 485 | 3 Thanks for your points.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 自从有了那个同性恋以后，印钱是肯定的，而且是永远的
: 买房地产，买股票都是抵御通胀的办法
: 当然能有份工作也是能抵御通胀的
: 说到迹象，没有什么迹象，政府天天印钱，m3早就不报了
: 有关通胀，个人有两个观点
: 第一手头一定要有一周之内甚至当天就能到位的现金，现今就是王
: 第二通胀是长期存在短期爆发的，最好的抵御通胀的办法是优秀的企业和自己不断能赚
: 钱，而金银长期来讲不能抵御通胀，短期可以炒炒。房子，在个人财政安全的情况下也
: 还是不错的选择。但是，一个事实是当年曼哈顿卖了24美元，而这24美元如果8%的回报
: 到今天，能买下不止一个曼哈顿。也就是说，房子不是一个最好的选择，只能说是不错
| S******n
发帖数: 617 | 4 higher salaries, looser credits. (We have neither now)
Coz the >sustained< hyper-inflation needs a feedback from
the income side. Then the spiral can start to push both sides higher
and higher.
Without the income increase, inflation is short-term as demand/supply
can't feedback each other or reach a balance.
Printing can't make it. (Japan)
【在 F*******e 的大作中提到】
: 从历史看，通胀是趋势，通缩是暂时的。总觉得下一轮通胀会格外厉害，虽不至于
: hyperinflation。等到credit crunch结束，新一轮loan开始，而以前印的天文数字的
: 钞票不能有效回笼。
: 就是不知道什么时候开始，开始之前都有哪些迹象，也好有个准备啊。
| l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 5 Coming ahead is stagflation, the most painful stage
that is high inflation and low income increase/economic growth
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: higher salaries, looser credits. (We have neither now)
: Coz the >sustained< hyper-inflation needs a feedback from
: the income side. Then the spiral can start to push both sides higher
: and higher.
: Without the income increase, inflation is short-term as demand/supply
: can't feedback each other or reach a balance.
: Printing can't make it. (Japan)
| o*******g
发帖数: 1300 | 6 Please show your calculation.
一个事实是当年曼哈顿卖了24美元，而这24美元如果8%的回报 | h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 7 What makes you think that we won't have higer "effective" salary (including
the bailout funds)? When price rises, the pressure for higher salary will
rise. I think we will first see that in the developing countries and they
will export it worldwide. For your information, Chinese bank lending surged
by 21% in the year to January. So the credit is already loose, with the
government stimulus plan, wages may also rise because of political pressure.
Japan is irrelevent because of the carry-trade phen
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: higher salaries, looser credits. (We have neither now)
: Coz the >sustained< hyper-inflation needs a feedback from
: the income side. Then the spiral can start to push both sides higher
: and higher.
: Without the income increase, inflation is short-term as demand/supply
: can't feedback each other or reach a balance.
: Printing can't make it. (Japan)
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 8 1.08^383*24=151,883,149,141,871.7
That's a famous lesson about compounding.
【在 o*******g 的大作中提到】
: Please show your calculation.
: 一个事实是当年曼哈顿卖了24美元，而这24美元如果8%的回报
|
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 9 383年8%，相当于象棋盘上摆米粒摆到第42格。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 1.08^383*24=151,883,149,141,871.7
: That's a famous lesson about compounding.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 10 It's kind of funny that the so called US Dollar didn't exist until 1792,
which is only 217 years ago. But people compound it from 383 years ago
using an average historical return of maybe 30 years.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 1.08^383*24=151,883,149,141,871.7
: That's a famous lesson about compounding.
| | | s*****r
发帖数: 62 | | b****e
发帖数: 460 | 12 Well, at the beginning, dollar was fixed with gold, and guilder was fixed
with gold. It was traded for some clothes and beads and other stuff worth
about 60 guilders. So, you can easily transfer it into dollar amount. No big
deal.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: It's kind of funny that the so called US Dollar didn't exist until 1792,
: which is only 217 years ago. But people compound it from 383 years ago
: using an average historical return of maybe 30 years.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 Dollar was fixed with Silver, not Gold, at the beginning.
Gold standard didn't get confirmed until 1900.
But what so ever, that's not the point. The point is using paper
money to judge value change in hundreds of years of history is
kind of meaningless if not misleading.
big
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Well, at the beginning, dollar was fixed with gold, and guilder was fixed
: with gold. It was traded for some clothes and beads and other stuff worth
: about 60 guilders. So, you can easily transfer it into dollar amount. No big
: deal.
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 14 You misunderstood the point of this sample. The point is, the best way to
retain the purchasing power of your capital is to put it into a sound
business rather than let it sit there.
In this example, I just demonstrated that the seemingly best real estate
deal was not more than just a moderate compound. If you are a business man,
whatever the business you do at whatever the time period, an 8% annually ROE
for a business is not a high bar at all.
You know I intentionally use Gold rather than Silv
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Dollar was fixed with Silver, not Gold, at the beginning.
: Gold standard didn't get confirmed until 1900.
: But what so ever, that's not the point. The point is using paper
: money to judge value change in hundreds of years of history is
: kind of meaningless if not misleading.
:
: big
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 Can I understand you in this way: you favor market timing over
indexing?
,
ROE
people
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: You misunderstood the point of this sample. The point is, the best way to
: retain the purchasing power of your capital is to put it into a sound
: business rather than let it sit there.
: In this example, I just demonstrated that the seemingly best real estate
: deal was not more than just a moderate compound. If you are a business man,
: whatever the business you do at whatever the time period, an 8% annually ROE
: for a business is not a high bar at all.
: You know I intentionally use Gold rather than Silv
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 16 You know, some people have very fast brains. A simple logic to these people
is a giant logic jump to someone else with slower brain. Unfortunately, I
belong to the latter. So, could you please tell me how did you deduct from
my words to market timing and index investing?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Can I understand you in this way: you favor market timing over
: indexing?
:
: ,
: ROE
: people
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 17 Sorry about that.
I meant: you said it's not good to put cash to somewhere, like a real
estate, and don't touch it for a long time. (This is indexing.)
Rather, once you anticipate an inflation, you prefer to find a sound
business and invest in that stock or sector. (This is market timing.)
Is that a fair understanding?
people
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: You know, some people have very fast brains. A simple logic to these people
: is a giant logic jump to someone else with slower brain. Unfortunately, I
: belong to the latter. So, could you please tell me how did you deduct from
: my words to market timing and index investing?
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 18 No, not nearly. You don't need to say sorry, I didn't give example at all.
Sit there: You either buy a piece of gold or a piece of real estate,
whatever it is. By doing this, the prime bet is to bet on some kind of
object or resource. For example, Manhattan, a good port in east coast with
nice weather. It's a wonderful place connecting Europe and America. Plus, it
happened to be a financial center of the most powerful country in the world
. There is human activity on this small piece of island,
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Sorry about that.
: I meant: you said it's not good to put cash to somewhere, like a real
: estate, and don't touch it for a long time. (This is indexing.)
: Rather, once you anticipate an inflation, you prefer to find a sound
: business and invest in that stock or sector. (This is market timing.)
: Is that a fair understanding?
:
: people
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 19 Ok, it's more like you favor equity over commodities in the long run.
If that's the case, I think less than half businesses in high inflation
could beat commodities. In your particular example, apple planting
might beat real estate since apple is also a "semi" commodity. But if
you try something like high-tech electronics store, your business might
have trouble.
I admit that you would pick up "sound" businesses. But again I believe
the percentage of sound businesses among all businesses is less
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: No, not nearly. You don't need to say sorry, I didn't give example at all.
: Sit there: You either buy a piece of gold or a piece of real estate,
: whatever it is. By doing this, the prime bet is to bet on some kind of
: object or resource. For example, Manhattan, a good port in east coast with
: nice weather. It's a wonderful place connecting Europe and America. Plus, it
: happened to be a financial center of the most powerful country in the world
: . There is human activity on this small piece of island,
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 20 Right, I prefer sound business rather than commodity. I use apple planting
just to demonstrate what is a business.
Sound is essential to a business. You are right, it's not an easy job to
find a sound business. Also, when your fund is big, it's not an easy task to
find something 8%. Even Buffett can't find 8% return for trillion dollar
fund.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ok, it's more like you favor equity over commodities in the long run.
: If that's the case, I think less than half businesses in high inflation
: could beat commodities. In your particular example, apple planting
: might beat real estate since apple is also a "semi" commodity. But if
: you try something like high-tech electronics store, your business might
: have trouble.
: I admit that you would pick up "sound" businesses. But again I believe
: the percentage of sound businesses among all businesses is less
| | | e****g
发帖数: 469 | 21 What makes you believe salary will increase in recent years?
In China, millions of new college graduates are fighting for, in effect, any
job. Do you think any company, in their right mind, will increase salary
significantly during this depression, with huge numbe of people waiting in
line to get the position?
The same also applies to US. In addition, US also faces pressure from
outsourcing.
Within 2 years, I do not see any chance for a hike of salary. Instead, a
hike of unemployment rate is hap
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: What makes you think that we won't have higer "effective" salary (including
: the bailout funds)? When price rises, the pressure for higher salary will
: rise. I think we will first see that in the developing countries and they
: will export it worldwide. For your information, Chinese bank lending surged
: by 21% in the year to January. So the credit is already loose, with the
: government stimulus plan, wages may also rise because of political pressure.
: Japan is irrelevent because of the carry-trade phen
| k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 22 从哪儿能弄到300多年下来平均8%回报的投资？其实我也不要8%，给我6%+close to 0
risk就行了。你给我介绍介绍？
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 自从有了那个同性恋以后，印钱是肯定的，而且是永远的
: 买房地产，买股票都是抵御通胀的办法
: 当然能有份工作也是能抵御通胀的
: 说到迹象，没有什么迹象，政府天天印钱，m3早就不报了
: 有关通胀，个人有两个观点
: 第一手头一定要有一周之内甚至当天就能到位的现金，现今就是王
: 第二通胀是长期存在短期爆发的，最好的抵御通胀的办法是优秀的企业和自己不断能赚
: 钱，而金银长期来讲不能抵御通胀，短期可以炒炒。房子，在个人财政安全的情况下也
: 还是不错的选择。但是，一个事实是当年曼哈顿卖了24美元，而这24美元如果8%的回报
: 到今天，能买下不止一个曼哈顿。也就是说，房子不是一个最好的选择，只能说是不错
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 23 当然找不到了
所以还是买曼哈顿值
不过，建设曼哈顿花的钱那就老了去了
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 从哪儿能弄到300多年下来平均8%回报的投资？其实我也不要8%，给我6%+close to 0
: risk就行了。你给我介绍介绍？
| K******l
发帖数: 39 | 24 一步步放大时间尺度，你会发现risk不断增加，很多小概率都会变成大概率甚至必然。
而现在的这几十年在历史上也许才是真正的小概率的幸福时代。risk free的回报，以
上千年的尺度衡量，平均考虑各个民族和各个文明，估计不到1%.
从秦朝到现在，2200年，如果1％的增长，考虑中国人口是秦朝的70倍，gdp增加为1.01
^2200, 差不多4亿倍。人均就是570万倍。估计也不比现在少。
更大的时间尺度，人类很可能注定也和其他种类，比如三叶虫一样，从无到有，从有到
无。最终归零的话，还有什么回报？
自然现实是残酷的。正如黄金没有利息一样。
能赚
下也
回报
不错
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 从哪儿能弄到300多年下来平均8%回报的投资？其实我也不要8%，给我6%+close to 0
: risk就行了。你给我介绍介绍？
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 25 通透。
01
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: 一步步放大时间尺度，你会发现risk不断增加，很多小概率都会变成大概率甚至必然。
: 而现在的这几十年在历史上也许才是真正的小概率的幸福时代。risk free的回报，以
: 上千年的尺度衡量，平均考虑各个民族和各个文明，估计不到1%.
: 从秦朝到现在，2200年，如果1％的增长，考虑中国人口是秦朝的70倍，gdp增加为1.01
: ^2200, 差不多4亿倍。人均就是570万倍。估计也不比现在少。
: 更大的时间尺度，人类很可能注定也和其他种类，比如三叶虫一样，从无到有，从有到
: 无。最终归零的话，还有什么回报？
: 自然现实是残酷的。正如黄金没有利息一样。
:
: 能赚
| k******u
发帖数: 3137 | 26 1.01^2200是近40亿倍, 我数了好几遍了, 呵呵.
不过这种数据没太大意义, 文明科技能源的发展都没算进去, 也没法量化,
01
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: 一步步放大时间尺度，你会发现risk不断增加，很多小概率都会变成大概率甚至必然。
: 而现在的这几十年在历史上也许才是真正的小概率的幸福时代。risk free的回报，以
: 上千年的尺度衡量，平均考虑各个民族和各个文明，估计不到1%.
: 从秦朝到现在，2200年，如果1％的增长，考虑中国人口是秦朝的70倍，gdp增加为1.01
: ^2200, 差不多4亿倍。人均就是570万倍。估计也不比现在少。
: 更大的时间尺度，人类很可能注定也和其他种类，比如三叶虫一样，从无到有，从有到
: 无。最终归零的话，还有什么回报？
: 自然现实是残酷的。正如黄金没有利息一样。
:
: 能赚
| a*****s
发帖数: 3643 | 27 But your life is only 70~80 years. So on need to care before and after your
life.
【在 k******u 的大作中提到】
: 1.01^2200是近40亿倍, 我数了好几遍了, 呵呵.
: 不过这种数据没太大意义, 文明科技能源的发展都没算进去, 也没法量化,
:
: 01
|
|
